Tuesday, November 26, 2013

FCPO: Still Bullish From Here 26th Nov 2013

Tuesday, 26th Nov 2013. Contrary to most believe that recent CPO futures rally might be short lived, think again. Stories to follow up.

"-Stocks closed little changed on Monday, erasing moderate gains that came after a deal with Iran that boosted investors' appetite for risk. The market just showed a little fatigue after strong action in recent weeks, said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital. "It's just normal growing pains," he told MarketWatch, adding that it's a holiday-shortened week and volume's light "so the gyrations can somewhat be exaggerated." The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.05% rose 7.77 points, or less than 0.1%, to finish at 16,072.54, while the S&P 500 SPX -0.13% fell 2.28 points, or about 0.1%, to end at 1,802.48. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.07%gained 2.92 points, or about 0.1%, to close at 3,994.57. The tech-heavy index spent some time above 4,000 but couldn't finish above that milestone level that it last closed above in September 2000. "

"-Japanese stocks fell on Tuesday, failing to hit a new high for the year, while the Australian dollar picked up after the Reserve Bank of Australia dampened speculation that it's close to intervening in the currency markets. After bumping up 1.6% over the previous three sessions, the dollar retreated from the recent highs against the yen. After climbing as high as Y101.92 on Monday - its highest level since May - the greenback eased to Y101.43 as the currency slipped after a strong run that has seen it gain for nine of the past 12 sessions.

That weakening trend for the yen resulted in substantial gains for Japanese stocks, which also suffered a setback on Tuesday, with the Nikkei down 0.8%. The market closed on Monday just a slither away from a new high for the year, but remained up 8.1% month-to-date."

"-January Soybeans finished up 9 3/4 at 1329 1/4, 5 1/4 off the high and 20 up from the low. March Soybeans closed up 8 3/4 at 1314 3/4. This was 19 up from the low and 4 3/4 off the high.
December Soymeal closed up 9.4 at 437.2. This was 12.4 up from the low and 2.4 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.5 at 40.66, 0.63 off the high and 0.15 up from the low. January soybeans closed 9 3/4 cents higher on the session and up 20 cents from the lows which occurred near the pit opening. Talk of the short-term overbought condition of the market, an excellent weather outlook for the next two weeks for South America and ideas that the rally pulled out enough cash soybeans onto the market to fulfill short-term needs were all seen as reasons for the early weakness. However, a continued firm cash market, ideas that ending stocks estimates could tighten significantly into early next year and talk of continued strong demand from China helped to support. Funds were noted as active buyers and bull spreads worked well. January meal closed $7.40 higher and pushed up to the highest level since mid-September with talk of little or no deliveries against the December contract helping to support. December oil closed 50 lower as meal/oil spreaders were active and palm oil was lower overnight. Private exporters reported a sale of 120,000 tonnes of US soybeans to unknown destination for the 2014/15 season. Weakness in meal and oil is helping to pressure this morning. Weekly export inspections came in at 66.9 million bushels as compared with estimates near 80 million. Exports need to average 21.3 million bushels per week to reach the USDA projection."

FCPO- The Bulls Are Just Chilling, For The Moment..


Yes, you heard it right, the bulls that pushed the market to 14-months high last Monday this week is just beginning their plot. The 14-months high that stop on 2,692 level was very short lived when the market sees it as extreme overbought, sending the price dwindle down back to closed at 2,629 yesterday. It was no surprise to expect some profit taking or jittery at the peak of the price, but even the benchmark Feb took a dive for the past two session, market is not ready to switch its current Bullish state to Bearish direction, not yet. Any market can retrace after hitting a new high, it is even more prone to have at least 2%~5% retracement after it high above 12-months high. What I am trying to say is, it is too early to conclude the Bullish momentum on daily chart has been permanently diminish judging on just two Bearish candles. Price for the benchmark Feb can retreat until 2,600 level before we can see any further negative action if this level is take out. Until that, medium term Bullish will likely stay put. Recent downfall on palm oil futures was likely due to sloppy demand reported on cargo surveyors but things are likely to improve, probably towards the end of this year. For the time being, palm oil futures is likely open lower due to overnight weakness in Soy oil. The most actively traded Soy oil finished down 0.5 at 40.66, 0.63 off the high and 0.15 up from the low. For today, pivot support for the Feb contract is located around 2,610 while resistance is pegged at 2,655.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2682
R1= 2655
S1= 2610
S2= 2592
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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