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Tuesday, November 18, 2014

FCPO: 200 Points Sideways, Move Along 18th Nov 2014

Tuesday, 18th Nov 2014. Palm oil futures is doing what we called a Bulls and Bears battle, but to put it in simpler way, it is a battle between the group of trader that is confused and a some informed trader. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks ended Monday's choppy session fractionally higher. A small gain on the S&P 500 was enough to send the index into record close. Stocks were under pressure in the morning trade following news that Japan fell into recession and less-than-stellar manufacturing data in the U.S. Comments from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, who said that the ECB would be open to buying government bonds, if needed have buoyed U.S. stocks somewhat in the afternoon trade, but gains petered out. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.07% ended 1.5 points higher at 2,041.32. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.07% added 13 points, or 0.1%, to 17,647.75. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.37% closed 17.5 points, or 0.4%, lower at 4,671."

"- Higher starts for both the Hong Kong and Shanghai share markets, brought on by Monday's launch of the Stock Connect program, had almost disappeared half an hour into trading, with concern surfacing as new data out of China showed the bad-debt ratio for major banks had jumped to a four-year-high. The Hang Seng Index HSI, -1.21% moved off its 0.9% opening gain to trade with a loss of 0.5%. Over on the mainland, the Shanghai Composite IndexSHCOMP, -0.19% also gave up most of its initial advance of 1.2% to trade with a gain of just 0.2%. Earlier in the morning, Hong Kong and Shanghai authorities announced that the long-awaited Stock Connect, allowing direct trade between the two markets, had officially started, allowing foreign individudal investors to buy mainland Chinese stocks for the first time ever. "

"-The U.S. dollar moved lower against the euro on Friday, after U.S. a report of consumer sentiment indicated that expectations for higher inflation fell. The consumer -sentiment report suggests that the Federal Reserve may be in no rush to raise rates.
The euro EURUSD, +0.12%   moved up $1.25 against the dollar on Friday from $1.2475 late Thursday. The shared currency had been trading flat to down against the dollar, on the heels of an upbeat U.S. retail sales report. The euro climbed higher, however, after a sentiment survey indicated that consumer expectations of rising prices fell. The WSJ Dollar Index BUXX, -0.06%  was down fractionally 0.2%, to 79.89, while ICE Dollar Index DXY, -0.15% a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six currencies, notched lower to 87.54 from 87.82 on Thursday."

FCPO- Where It Is Going ?

Most of us know that this currently it is a sideways market with no force gaining the upper hand yet. When the price dipped too low, Bulls will likely take advantage and support price from going lower and when the price is rising too fast, profit taking will kick in to take control. No one is getting the edge here, thus no trend is running either. I am talking about medium term trend traders and slightly longer term trend traders, I believe these types of traders might not getting or getting lesser cheese this month. Just look at the hourly chart and daily, a swift pull back with tons of zig zag price action in hourly chart. Most trend traders are getting their positions breaking even or likely, cutting losses. I might be wrong about cutting losses but it is somehow close. Points is, these are the times where trend traders hurt, and I hope it is not for long. Back to the palm oil outlook, the new benchmark Feb is likely moving within 2,286 ~ 2,193 this week. We might be looking at some new direction if the market breach either of these range. For external fundamental, stocks level is still high, too high for price surge for the moment and demand is consistently weaker. Palm oil rival, soy oil is still Bearish from where it stood, the Dec contract was traded at 32.35 cents per pound, up about 0.25 cents as the time of writing. For today, pivot support for Feb contract is located around 2,214 while resistance is pegged at 2,252.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2252
R1= 2242
S1= 2214
S2= 2196
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Friday, November 7, 2014

FCPO: Bulls Are Having Hard Times 6th Nov 2014

Thursday, 6th Nov 2014. Palm oil futures is heading down for some correction after breaking above previous resistance level but the path to northern is not all smooth. Other news to follow.

"-The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at new highs on Wednesday, as an upbeat report on the labor market, and results that left Republicans with a Senate majority, lifted stocks. Investors appeared to give the service sector data a pass, which showed it has been growing at a somewhat slower pace. S&P 500 SPX, +0.57% gained 11.46 points, or 0.6%, to 2,023.56, with utilities and energy sector stocks leading the gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.58%  jumped 100.69 points, or 0.6%, to 17,484.53. The Dow industrials hit fresh records in tandem with the Dow transports and Dow utilities. A rare occurrence, dubbed Dow Trifecta has happened only 26 times in the history of the averages. The last time this happened was on April 25, 2007, according to FactSet. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.06%  lagged the main benchmarks and closed down 2.91 points or 0.1%, at 4,620.72."

"-Hong Kong stocks enjoyed some slim gains in early Thursday trading, with the Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.15% up 0.1%, rubbing out a little of its 0.6% loss in the previous session. The gains came as Hong Kong's H-share index fell 0.2%, and Shanghai's Composite Index SHCOMP, +0.25% edged 0.1% higher in initial trades."

"-U.S. crude-oil futures settled higher Wednesday after a U.S. supply report showed a smaller-than-expected increase in crude inventories. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in December CLZ4, +0.31%   rose $1.49, or 1.9%, to settle at $78.68 a barrel. That snapped a four-session losing streak that took prices to their lowest in three years. It was also oil’s largest one-day gain in nearly two weeks."

FCPO- It Is Not Always How It Seems To Be

What we thought for FCPO Jan to continue rally at least amid the expectation of better demand as palm oil substance will be use on bio-diesel fuel in Malaysia that has started. Plus the palm oil export duty exemption may not help much for the moment due to Soy oil weakness so far. Market is having hard time rallying after hitting it high at 2,345 last Friday. Most medium term trend trader might find it challenging to held on Long positions due to recent steep correction. As it market is just letting go, maybe for the time being. The Bulls will come back if there is some stimulating news such as further increase in demand, maybe ?? Or continue to falter due to stockpiles rising. Back to the outlook, we are likely to expect lower opening on palm oil futures today due to overnight weakness in Soy oil. Soy oil for Dec contract is doing 32.62 as the time of writing, that was 0.50 cents lower than yesterday value on 6.00pm GMT. Even though palm oil futures has been tanking recently, long term price perspective remain Bullish. Reason behind were multiple formation on higher high and higher low on daily chart and until we see a new lower low and lower high in daily chart, there would not be any downside trend form yet. Pivot point for support is located around 2,233 while resistance is pegged at 2,280.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2308
R1= 2280
S1= 2233
S2= 2214
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

FCPO: The Upper Range Is Broken, Bulls Coming Back 30th Oct 2014.

Thursday, 30th Oct 2014. Palm oil futures is likely open higher today judging on promising recovery in Soy oil futures. Soy oil futures for Jan contract was traded at new high at around 34.51 cents per pound as the time of writing. Other news to follow.

"-The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a four-day winning streak on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve made official its plans to end the last round of its recession-era stimulus program. Most major stock benchmarks slipped lower, after an initial knee-jerk bout of panic, in the wake of the Fed’s policy decision, which came just after 2 p.m. Eastern time. Stocks did recover somewhat, but still ended Wednesday’s trading session in the red. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.14% closed 2.75 points, or 0.1%, lower at 1,982.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index, which was already under pressure from Internet stocksCOMP, -0.33% lost 15 points, or 0.3%, to 4,549.23. Meanwhile, the Dow industrialsDJIA, -0.18% ended down 31.44 points, or 0.2%, at 16,974."

"-The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) announced Sunday that it did not know when the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, or “Hu-Gang Tong,” would be launched because it has not received the central government’s approval.  Fears of the program being derailed by pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong were voiced before the HKEx 0388, -0.12% HKXCF, +1.98%  announcement. The Hong Kong Commercial Daily, a Chinese-language newspaper sold in the city and in neighboring mainland areas, cited an anonymous source as saying Hu-Gang Tong will probably not be introduced by the end of the year because central government authorities think the atmosphere in the former British colony is causing bad timing for any new economic cooperation scheme."

"-MPOC Expects CPO Prices to Rise Next Year
KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects crude palm oil price (CPO) to increase to between RM2,100 and RM2,500 next year, lifted by factors such as biofuel demand and petroleum price level. Its chief executive officer, Tan Sri Yusof Basiron, said besides supply and demand, biofuel demand and petroleum price level would determine whether more or less of biodiesel would be used. "The announcement by Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister, Datuk Seri Douglas Uggah Embas, to impose a requirement for biodiesel to use seven per cent palm oil, from five% now, was a way to firm up the CPO price," he told Bernama yesterday. Basiron said this on the sidelines of MPOC's International Palm Oil Trade Fair and Seminar 2014 here. Uggah had said the move aimed to lower stocks and boost prices that had declined by over 20% this year. The implementation would start in stages from November in Peninsular Malaysia and in Sarawak, Sabah and Federal Territory Labuan by December, he said. Basiron said the government also tried to remove depressing factors on prices by providing export duty exemption for CPO."This would remove any bearish factors affecting palm oil price. "The move will also stimulate the country's export and help rationalise the stock level," he said. Source : Bernama"

FCPO- The Bulls Are Out Of The Cage. 

Palm oil futures rallied to multi sessions high and closed at 2,267 yesterday amid strong rally in Soy oil. More promising rally is about to happen again today as Soy oil manage to record about 0.80 cents rally overnight and it is still rallying at the time of writing. Yesterday market frantic rally may contributed by the news of declining output in palm oil top producer and depleting inventories as well. For whatever the reasons were, again, it is not a must that the trader knows it, but it is compulsory for a trader to consistently follow the trading plan before him, period. I for an instance, does not know such news until today, so does it make me to less informed to other trader in the market ? The answer is no doubt yes, I am less informed on this news and I did not care because it was not the news that made me enter and exit my positions based on these kind of news. I have a plan, and it was crucial for me that I trade based on that plan. Staying and working according to the your tailored made plan or system is the best edge you have, to stand a chance winning in the long term. News or known as external factors in my vocabulary did not give me any measurable technique to use in the market. By the time I knew there was such news, it was already too late as the price would have moved away from your exit point. Back to palm oil futures outlook, "the bulls are indeed out of the cage," and it might continue to charge further until there some indication in hourly chart that may suggest slowing down. For this week, resistance is pegged at 2,325 while pivot support is located around 2,233.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2,296
R1= 2,279
S1= 2,233
S2= 2,204
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

FCPO: TaKing Its Own Sweet Time To Move 21st Oct 2014

Tuesday, 21st Oct 2014. Palm oil futures is trading below the previous support range at around 2,136 level but kept on staying there for the moment, Soy oil getting weaker. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. equity investors began the week on an optimistic, albeit cautious, note on Monday, with gains in broader markets led by defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities. Monday’s positive movement in the Dow industrial comes even as one of its major components, IBM, posted disappointing quarterly results, pushing shares of the tech giant lower and dragging down the broader index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.12%  closed 19.26 points, or 0.1%, higher at 16,399.67. The blue-chip index is down 1.1% since the start of the year. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.91%  gained 17.25 points, or 0.9% to 1,904.01. The benchmark index fell below its 200-day moving average last Monday and still remains a few points below that key level. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.35%  rose 57.64 points, or 1.4%, to 4,316.07, led by gains in biotech and internet stocks."

"-Stocks in Tokyo staged their biggest rally in 16 months on Monday as investors bargain-hunted despite lingering concerns about global growth that sparked volatility in markets last week. After sliding 5% last week, the Nikkei Stock Average NIK, -0.57%  rose 4.0% to 15,111.23. The index had hit correction territory on Friday, having fallen more than 10% from a peak in late September. The market also rallied on news that Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest public pension fund with some $1.21 trillion in assets, is working on raising its portfolio allocation devoted to domestic stocks to around 25%. There was a scramble to cover short positions, pushing shares higher."

"-Crude-oil futures ticked lower Monday, ending a brief relief rally that emerged late last week. Traders remained unsure whether prices for the commodity have hit bottom and oversupply concerns continued. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November CLX4, +0.01%  declined 4 cents, or less than 0.1%, to settle at $82.71 a barrel. December Brent crude LCOZ4, -0.18%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange declined 76 cents, or 0.9%, to finish at $85.40 a barrel, also putting a stop on two straight days of gains."

FCPO- Might Be Looking At Equally Matched Bulls And Bears

Palm oil futures had break below the major support level at around 2,136 last week but manage to stay afloat around this level for the moment. Even though Soy oil is continuing to record lower prices, palm oil futures is still manage to descend slowly than expected this week. In any market, a downforce or Bearish move should be swifter than uptrend but not in this case as there was still some Bulls influence throughout the trading session. I am starting to think Bears are not that aggressive for this particular downside and it is taking its time too long to descend or maybe it is just me wondering when is the next new low would be form. By looking at where we are right now, the Jan contract does break down from previous major support but manage to stay up so far, making this particular move a guessing game. Most of you may ask is this downside finished ? It is likely to be over if the Jan contract manage to breach above 2,150 level and follow by 2,180 level anytime this month. If it does that, we are likely moving into a ranging market condition that range within 2,100 ~2,223 area. More upside is possible if the upper range or major resistance above 2,223 level is breach. By that, most long term trader might want to consider taking Long positions as the market condition has changed. For today, the benchmark Jan contract is likely open slightly lower judging from lower Soy oil price compare to yesterday palm oil session closed at 6.00pm GMT. The Dec soy oil was traded at 31.71 cents per pound as the time of writing.

Daily Pivot Point

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

FCPO: Recent Support Range Broken, Bears Are Mauling 16th Oct 2014

Thursday, 16th Oct 2014. Palm oil futures went down and this time, it mean new business to South. Other news to follow.

"- Interconnected worries over deflation, a potential rerun of the eurozone debt crisis and some surprisingly rotten U.S. economic data shocked investors on Wednesday, triggering a whipsaw session that saw stocks plunging only to trim losses before the final bell. It was panic mode in the early going and again in the afternoon. The DowDJIA, -1.06%  dropped by around 460 points and were on track for the biggest one-day percentage drop in three years before a late rebound. In the end, the index finished down 173.45 points, or 1.1%, at 16,141.74.The S&P 500 SPX, -0.81% temporarily erased its gain for the year but also trimmed losses by the end of the session. The small-cap Russell 2000 RUT, +1.02%  , which has been under heavy pressure this month, led the late rebound, finishing the day with a 1% gain.
The S&P 500 recorded a decline of more than 9% from its intraday peak reached on Sept. 19 to its trough on Wednesday."
"-Stocks in Asia were mostly higher Wednesday, with markets in Japan and Indonesia rebounding to lead the way as Chinese inflation data gave investors hope for fresh stimulus for the world’s second-largest economy. The Nikkei Stock Average NIK, -2.44%  finished up 1% at 15,073.52, while Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index JAKIDX, +0.82%  gained 0.8% to 4,962.94, and Australia’s S&P ASX 200 XJO, -1.14% gained 0.7% to 5,245.60. Investors appeared to hunt for bargains after the market suffered heavy losses earlier this week, fueled by worries over the pace of global economic growth and anticipated tightening of U.S. monetary policy. In Japan, the Nikkei rose from a two-month low and broke a five-session losing streak as investors bought exporters benefiting from dollar strength. The dollarUSDJPY, +0.08% traded at ¥107.21, versus ¥107.06 late Tuesday in New York."
"- Crude-oil inventories rose by 10.2 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 10, the American Petroleum Institute said late Wednesday, according to reports. Gasoline supplies declined by 3.1 million barrels, and inventories of distillates were down by 200,000 barrels. The API report comes a day ahead of more closely watched data from the Energy Information Administration due Thursday. Analysts polled by Platts expect the EIA to report a supply increase of 2.5 million barrels. Both reports were delayed by a day due to Monday's Columbus Day holiday. "

FCPO- The Game Is On, Negative Slope Trend Is Coming. 

Palm oil futures broke down below medium term major support level at around 2,136 level yesterday for the first time, signalling further retracement this month. The new benchmark Jan 2015 contract will take over the active month soon, but the rest of the story will remain the same. The current story for palm oil futures would be, retreating Bulls giving way to Bears. This round, Bears are likely acquired an edge by taking out the medium support level around 2,136 lately. And couple with double digit negative export figures plus recent lower Soy oil futures, this downward pressure is likely turn into a good old correction. On the technical side, we are expecting previous support level become resistance level around 2,136 level if the market open lower and continue to breach new low below 2,110 today. As always, there would not be a straight line retracement but rather a few recovery along the way of this short term correction. The benchmark Jan 2015 is looking to open slightly lower today judging on current Soy oil futures is hovering around 32.10~32.20 level, which is 0.30 cents lower compare to yesterday 6.00pm GMT. For today, pivot support is locating around 2,087 while resistance is pegged at 2,162.

P/s: Most analyst is blaming Soy oil and other commodities weakness on crude oil, they are related but not entirely correlated. We all know what happen to a trader when you trade with correlation.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2189
R1= 2162
S1= 2111
S2= 2087
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

FCPO: Sideways On The Way To Recovery 14th Oct 2014

Tuesday, 14th Oct 2014. Palm oil futures went down again since past few session consecutively amid weakness on Soy oil and recent news about negative export figures. Other news to follow.

"-The U.S. stock market ended Monday’s volatile session sharply lower as selling intensified at the last hour. Volatile trading came on the heels of last week’s deep losses that had been triggered by global economic growth concerns. Monday’s trading marked the fifth consecutive day of 1% moves for the S&P 500 and triple-digit moves for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Key technical levels were in focus, especially as there was no data on the economic calendar and bond markets were closed for Columbus Day holiday. The S&P 500 SPX, -1.65%  closed down 31.39 points, or 1.6%, to 1,874.74. The benchmark index has pulled back more than 6% from its peak reached on Sept. 18. All of the main benchmarks are trading below their 200-day moving averages. Falling below the 200-day moving average level, and in the case of the S&P 500, below the 1,900 level, is considered significant as many analysts see the breach as a sign of further declines. Vote here: Does this stock slump have further to go? The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.35%  dropped 223 points, or 1.3%, to 16,321.07. The blue-chip index turned negative for the year on Friday and is now down 1.5% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.46%  dropped 62.58 points, or 1.5%, to 4,213.66. The Russell 2000 RUT, -0.38%   gave up solid gains of early morning and closed down 4.3 points, or 0.4%, at 1,049.17."

"-Hong Kong stocks erased earlier losses and closed higher on Monday, as China’s trade data for September beat expectations. The Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.24%  opened lower on a negative U.S. lead from the end of last week, but ended the session higher by 0.2%."

"CPO Futures Higher on Strong Export Performance
Kuala Lumpur: Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed higher yesterday, thanks to September’s strong export performance. According to Cargo Surveyor Intertek Testing Services, exports of Malaysian palm oil products during the month rose by 16.3 per cent from a month earlier to 1.5 million tonnes. Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd derivative product specialist, David Ng, said India was aggressively purchasing palm oil and the current price was deemed attractive to restock ahead of key festivals like Deepavali. At the close, October 2014 added RM27 to RM2,232 a tonne, and January 2015 increased RM23 to RM2,233 a tonne. November 2014 and December 2014 decreased by RM32 and RM25 to RM2,227 a tonne and RM2,217 a tonne, respectively. Volume advanced to 43,225 lots from 26,489 lots recorded on Monday while open interest increased to 305,698 contracts from 286,208 contracts on Monday. On the physical market, October South was up RM20 at RM2,240 a tonne. Bernama"

FCPO- Sideways In Play 

Palm oil futures is testing previous session day high and low or what it is call as 35 points to 80 points sideways market. Most of the trend trader or medium term trader might find it impossible to maneuver this condition, not because they are not capable of but because of their trend following system does not allow it. Imagine Buying at the day high and price dip about 30 points to 50 points the next session or vice versa are common situation every trend trader face currently. Despite how the market behave, we need to keep trusting and trade within the scope of our trading system or trading plan. Every trading system has it strength and weakness, and it need time to work. These are the major range we are talking about, 2,224 ~ 2,137 area. The benchmark Dec has to breach above or below these range in order to break out from current ranging market. Even if these range is taken out, the benchmark Dec might not head straight along with the break out movement, instead price might linger around the break out area for few sessions until everything settle down and start moving again. Traders patient and time will be tested the most coming to the end of four quarter. On external side, palm oil export for the first 10th Oct vs Sept was down about 18%, bad news coming back so soon.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2209
R1= 2187
S1= 2147
S2= 2129
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

FCPO: Lets Give Bulls Chance To Dance 25th Sept 2014

Thursday, 25th Sept 2014. Palm oil futures manage to recover promisingly starting last Tuesday amid positive progress made on Soy oil and improved palm oil export numbers also help. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks rallied on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average recording their best one-day percentage gain in more than 5 weeks. The rebound snapped a 3-day losing streak that has been blamed in part on worries about global growth and fighting in Iraq and Syria. A stronger-than-expected report on new-home sales and dovish comments from two Federal Reserve officials, may have contributed to gains. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.78%  gained 15.63 points, or 0.9%, to 1,998.38. Broad-based gains were led by health care and consumer staples sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.90%  gained 155.02 points, or 0.9%, to 17,210.89, recovering some of the steep losses from the previous two sessions. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.03%  added 46.53 points, or 1.03%, to 4,555.22, while the small-cap Russell 2000 RUT, +0.86%   — which has lagged behind the other indexes this month and this year — gained 8.9 points, or 0.8%, to 1,127.60.

"-Here are the closi levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) down 0.2% ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) up 0.4% ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) up 1.5% ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) down 0.7% ; Seoul (Kospi) up 0.3% Taipei (Taiex) up 0.2%."

"-Crude-oil futures rose Wednesday after weekly inventories data showed an unexpected decline in supplies. Light, sweet crude futures for November delivery CLX4, -0.03%  rose $1.24, or 1.4%, to settle at $92.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. November Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange LCOX4, -0.04%  rose 10 cents, or 0.1%, to end at $96.95 a barrel."

FCPO- We Might Looking At The Beginning Of Short Term To Long Term Recovery.

Now I might sound optimistic but that is how a healthy uptrend is made. An good prolong uptrend is always tested before it can begin running its way to higher ground. That mean, series of retracement and recovery right thereafter. If you put it in technical terms, the hourly chart or daily chart if you are looking at higher time frame must create series of higher lows first, then higher highs for further confirmation. A few successive higher lows and higher highs signifies consistent involvement of Bulls. Bulls are significantly aggressive if there is a new higher highs, forcing most Bears out of business. On contrary, I may sound pessimistic about palm oil outlook starting this week due to very strong signs that Bears would take control after looking three consecutive Bearish candle on daily chart. But that is necessary because we need to be clear about what the price and candle are telling us, thus trade on what you see, not what you think is best practice to be profitable in the market. Staying clear of what you are not sure such as news, fundamental data or advise of others might avoid you to make costly mistake on your trading equity. Staying control is crucial to this business, which means fully took charge of your positions and emotion in check. For this week, we are likely looking at a new higher high formed if the December contract manage to breached above 2,173 level and staying above that level for the closing would be the best sign to tell you that market is heading North for longer time frame.

Daily Pivot Point
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

FCPO: Down We Go, Again 23rd Sept 2014

Tuesday, 23rd Sept 2014. The palm oil futures closed lower yesterday amid weakness on Soy oil since last Thursday as both the edible oil recovery are slowing down.

"-U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 falling by its largest margin in nearly seven weeksInvestors turned skittish as they fretted about falling commodity prices and concerns about global growth. A decline in economic activity in August, measured by Chicago Federal Reserve as well as a drop in existing-home sales contributed to the dour Wall Street mood. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.80%  closed 16.11 points, or 0.8%, lower at 1,994.29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.62%  dropped 107.06 points, or 0.6%, to 17,172.68. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.14%  fell 52.10 points, or 1.1%, to 4,527.69."

"- Hong Kong stocks fell on Monday to the lowest closing level in about two months, amid growing concerns about China’s economy after comments from the finance minister suggested no major stimulus measures would be announced despite a slowdown. The Hang Seng Index HSI, -1.44%  declined 1.4% to 23,955.49, its lowest close since late July. Finance Minister Lou Jiwei over the weekend said at a G-20 meeting that Chinese economy is facing downward pressure. But the nation won’t “make major policy adjustments” due to changes in any individual economic indicator, according to a statement on the website of the People’s Bank of China. Over on the Chinese mainland, Shanghai markets closed significantly lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -1.70%  down 1.7%. Other major markets in Asia were also weaker. In Japan, the Nikkei AverageNIK, -0.71%  ended down 0.7%, while the broader Topix index I0000, +0.00% inched 0.1% lower. The yen USDJPY, -0.17%  slightly weakened to ¥109.079 against the dollar, compared with ¥109.047 in the previous session. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.15%  gave up 1.3%, while in South Korea, the Kospi Composite Index SEU, -0.62%  pulled back 0.7%."

FCPO- Tough Ride Ahead. 

Palm oil futures for December contract is retracing down for the moment amid weak respond from Soy oil recently. Current upside is likely pause due to recent candle formation, and it does not look good for long term recovery. But before I go into foretelling the outlook of palm oil futures, lets take a look at the fundamental side of it. The good news was, Malaysia palm oil export is increasing to double digit growth, cargo surveyor ITS reported there was 21.2% increase palm oil export for the month of 1-20th Sept vs Aug. The export news was indeed a welcome sight, but it need to continue recording steady growth in order to reduce stocks level, that is where the real effect is going to take place. With the possibility of palm oil stocks decreasing with steady demand, we can then dream of further price recovery. For the moment, let just not hope that market would stay sideways within 2,050~2,150 for too long and too frequent. The real deal, there was two significant warning on the daily chart before the market dip down to 2,064 level yesterday. The first sign was the formation of shooting star when the price closed lower on previous Thursday after hitting new high in the morning session, about 2,172 level before closing at day low at 2,138 level. The second Bearish sign came again when December contract closed lower on the next day, it was a red candle on the afternoon session down to 2,109 level. And yesterday, the December contract declined to 2,064 on morning session but manage to closed at day high at 2,090 level. Event though the December mange to recover at the end of session, we would not expecting it to recover from this point due to new weakness on Soy oil, it was traded slightly below 32 cents per pound as the time of writing. Overall, long term perspective remain Bearish at the moment, while we might be looking at some potential for the market to recover on export news on short term, this recover might serve as chances for the Bears to join the Shorting charade. For today, pivot support is located around 2,053 while resistance is pegged at 2,100.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2111
R1= 2100
S1= 2071
S2= 2053
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.