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Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Foreign Futures Are Now Online, Interested ?
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FKLI Trapped Within Range, FCPO Floating Above Support Level. 22th May 2013
22th May 2013. The stock index made some decent recovery yesterday, signalling possible rally this week. Other news to follow.
"- U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Dow industrials and S&P 500 finishing at record highs, after comments from two Federal Reserve officials suggested that the central bank is not close to tapering its bond-buying program. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.34% gained 52.30 points, or 0.3%, to end at 15,387.58, notching its 19th consecutive Tuesday rise. The S&P 500 index SPX +0.17% climbed 2.87 points, or 0.2%, to 1,669.16, with health care the biggest gainer and telecommunications the biggest laggard among the 10 major industry groups. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.16% rose 5.69 points, or 0.2%, to 3,502.12."
"- Australian stocks declined, and Hong Kong equities snapped a three-day winning run on Tuesday, weighed by overnight losses on Wall Street and uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy. Japanese and mainland Chinese shares overcame choppy trade to finish higher, meanwhile, with a weakened yen helping the Nikkei Stock Average set a fresh multiyear high. The S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.20% dropped 0.6% in Sydney, the Hang Seng IndexHK:HSI -0.54% gave up 0.5% in Hong Kong and the Kospi KR:SEU +0.36% was off 0.1% in Seoul. Japan’s Nikkei JP:NIK +0.95% changed direction a few times before rising 0.1% to 15,381.02, its highest finish since December 2007. The benchmark is now up 11% so far in May, and almost 48% higher from the level at last year’s end. The Shanghai Composite CN:000001 +0.22% inched up 0.2%."
"- Oil futures to log their first decline in five sessions. Traders awaited this week's updates on U.S. petroleum supplies and the June crude futures contract expired at the session's close. June crude CLM3 -0.93% fell 55 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $96.16 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July crude CLN3 -0.45% , which is now the front-month contract, ended at $96.18, down 75 cents, or 0.8%. "
"-July Soybeans finished up 13 3/4 at 1478 1/4, 1 off the high and 22 1/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 4 1/4 at 1220 3/4. This was 6 1/2 up from the low and 7 1/4 off the high. July Soymeal closed up 3.4 at 438.7. This was 7.5 up from the low and 0.5 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished up 0.28 at 49.48, 0.22 off the high and 0.53 up from the low. The soybean market ended the day mixed with significant support showing up in the July contract while the rest of the complex traded lower to nearly unchanged. Cash basis in processor markets was on the defensive for most of the day as producer sales of old crop have picked up. The July vs. November spread setback in early trade but found support midday and managed to post a new contract high at +259 3/4. A well-followed oilseed analyst suggested overnight that US soybean imports could be reach just over 30 million bushels in the September/August period with most of the supply coming from Canada and South America. The supplies will likely hit the east coast which should ease the tight supply situation but very little product will have the ability to move west where market conditions remain relatively tight. Most traders are looking for crush to decline over the next couple of months. July meal traded higher today while the December contract was lower. Steady demand for old crop supply helped to support July meal. Soybean oil contracts ended the day in positive territory."
FKLI- Crawling Back Into Range
There was still no sign of major weakness yet for both index futures and stock index currently after the market retrace slightly from previous surge to 1,835, two weeks ago. Right now, the market is going into a range trading around 1,800 ~ 1,760 area with upside bias. More upside is expected if the May contract manage to breach above the upper range located at 1,800 level while market participants can expect more profit taking activities if the spot month retrace below 1,760 area. Short term market participants and traders are likely setting up to trim their positions earlier ahead for the long weekend. Bursa Derivatives will be closed on this Friday, 24th May 2013 for Wesak public holiday. Externally, more foreign fund and local fund are channelling back into the stock market gradually as you can see most of the blue chips stocks are making new weekly high and some multi months high. And the upside trend is not only concentrate on one or two sectors, but almost spread event to entire sectors, except plantation. For today, pivot point for spot month contract is located around 1,778 while resistance is pegged at 1,793.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1798
R1= 1793
S1= 1778
S2= 1768
FCPO- Support Identified
There was one major event created when the market start to recover on second session yesterday. It is a feat for the benchmark Aug to recover after it gap down on morning session and rally up to 2,348 level, a strong signal for the Bulls to stay in the game. From technical point of view, the benchmark Aug has created another higher low yesterday when it recover up to 2,348 level. Now, this higher low area or 2,321 will serve as immediate support level this level this week. Bullish candle formations such as higher low and higher high are part of the vital sign for the market to rally further. Without it, you might be swinging at the wind not the ball. But that is the whole story, right after the benchmark Aug hit the high, it quickly losses its momentum and closed at 2,335 level, just RM1 higher than previous Monday close this week. Overall, the benchmark Aug further upside is still pending currently judging from the closing value for the past two days this week. Market participants are yet made up their mind what they are going to do with weak demand and gradual reduction in stockpiles. Short term sideways trading strategy is likely enable you to benefit from intraday price swing. Daily ATR range is still bottoming at around 40 points. This week, pivot support for the Aug contract is located around 2,321 while resistance is pegged at 2,348.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2361
R1= 2348
S1= 2321
S2= 2307
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
"- U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Dow industrials and S&P 500 finishing at record highs, after comments from two Federal Reserve officials suggested that the central bank is not close to tapering its bond-buying program. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.34% gained 52.30 points, or 0.3%, to end at 15,387.58, notching its 19th consecutive Tuesday rise. The S&P 500 index SPX +0.17% climbed 2.87 points, or 0.2%, to 1,669.16, with health care the biggest gainer and telecommunications the biggest laggard among the 10 major industry groups. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.16% rose 5.69 points, or 0.2%, to 3,502.12."
"- Australian stocks declined, and Hong Kong equities snapped a three-day winning run on Tuesday, weighed by overnight losses on Wall Street and uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy. Japanese and mainland Chinese shares overcame choppy trade to finish higher, meanwhile, with a weakened yen helping the Nikkei Stock Average set a fresh multiyear high. The S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.20% dropped 0.6% in Sydney, the Hang Seng IndexHK:HSI -0.54% gave up 0.5% in Hong Kong and the Kospi KR:SEU +0.36% was off 0.1% in Seoul. Japan’s Nikkei JP:NIK +0.95% changed direction a few times before rising 0.1% to 15,381.02, its highest finish since December 2007. The benchmark is now up 11% so far in May, and almost 48% higher from the level at last year’s end. The Shanghai Composite CN:000001 +0.22% inched up 0.2%."
"- Oil futures to log their first decline in five sessions. Traders awaited this week's updates on U.S. petroleum supplies and the June crude futures contract expired at the session's close. June crude CLM3 -0.93% fell 55 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $96.16 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July crude CLN3 -0.45% , which is now the front-month contract, ended at $96.18, down 75 cents, or 0.8%. "
"-July Soybeans finished up 13 3/4 at 1478 1/4, 1 off the high and 22 1/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 4 1/4 at 1220 3/4. This was 6 1/2 up from the low and 7 1/4 off the high. July Soymeal closed up 3.4 at 438.7. This was 7.5 up from the low and 0.5 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished up 0.28 at 49.48, 0.22 off the high and 0.53 up from the low. The soybean market ended the day mixed with significant support showing up in the July contract while the rest of the complex traded lower to nearly unchanged. Cash basis in processor markets was on the defensive for most of the day as producer sales of old crop have picked up. The July vs. November spread setback in early trade but found support midday and managed to post a new contract high at +259 3/4. A well-followed oilseed analyst suggested overnight that US soybean imports could be reach just over 30 million bushels in the September/August period with most of the supply coming from Canada and South America. The supplies will likely hit the east coast which should ease the tight supply situation but very little product will have the ability to move west where market conditions remain relatively tight. Most traders are looking for crush to decline over the next couple of months. July meal traded higher today while the December contract was lower. Steady demand for old crop supply helped to support July meal. Soybean oil contracts ended the day in positive territory."
FKLI- Crawling Back Into Range
There was still no sign of major weakness yet for both index futures and stock index currently after the market retrace slightly from previous surge to 1,835, two weeks ago. Right now, the market is going into a range trading around 1,800 ~ 1,760 area with upside bias. More upside is expected if the May contract manage to breach above the upper range located at 1,800 level while market participants can expect more profit taking activities if the spot month retrace below 1,760 area. Short term market participants and traders are likely setting up to trim their positions earlier ahead for the long weekend. Bursa Derivatives will be closed on this Friday, 24th May 2013 for Wesak public holiday. Externally, more foreign fund and local fund are channelling back into the stock market gradually as you can see most of the blue chips stocks are making new weekly high and some multi months high. And the upside trend is not only concentrate on one or two sectors, but almost spread event to entire sectors, except plantation. For today, pivot point for spot month contract is located around 1,778 while resistance is pegged at 1,793.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1798
R1= 1793
S1= 1778
S2= 1768
FCPO- Support Identified
There was one major event created when the market start to recover on second session yesterday. It is a feat for the benchmark Aug to recover after it gap down on morning session and rally up to 2,348 level, a strong signal for the Bulls to stay in the game. From technical point of view, the benchmark Aug has created another higher low yesterday when it recover up to 2,348 level. Now, this higher low area or 2,321 will serve as immediate support level this level this week. Bullish candle formations such as higher low and higher high are part of the vital sign for the market to rally further. Without it, you might be swinging at the wind not the ball. But that is the whole story, right after the benchmark Aug hit the high, it quickly losses its momentum and closed at 2,335 level, just RM1 higher than previous Monday close this week. Overall, the benchmark Aug further upside is still pending currently judging from the closing value for the past two days this week. Market participants are yet made up their mind what they are going to do with weak demand and gradual reduction in stockpiles. Short term sideways trading strategy is likely enable you to benefit from intraday price swing. Daily ATR range is still bottoming at around 40 points. This week, pivot support for the Aug contract is located around 2,321 while resistance is pegged at 2,348.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2361
R1= 2348
S1= 2321
S2= 2307
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Palm Oil Export Slump, Curb Price Rally 21 May 2013
Tuesday, 21 May 2013. The palm oil futures ended lower yesterday as export figures signal demand slump likely to happen for May 2013. Other news to follow.
"- U.S. stocks on Friday advanced to a fourth weekly gain, with both the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 at all-time closes, after data cast a positive spin on the economy. Up 146% from a dozen-year low in 2009, the S&P 500SPX -0.07% is up nearly 17% for the year so far. Rising 1.6% for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.12% rose 121.18 points on Friday to 15,354.40, with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM -0.02% leading blue-chip gains. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.07% advanced 33.72 points to 3,498.97, up 1.8% from the week-ago finish."
"- Stocks in Hong Kong and Japan jumped to lead Asian markets higher Monday, tracking a positive global lead after key U.S. indexes notched another record finish on Friday, although South Korean shares underperformed amid geopolitical concerns.
FCPO- Palm Oil Price Slump Due To Weak Export Data
Surprise, surprise ? Not really, I believe most of you head of this " Buy the rumour, Sell the news," and that was what exactly happen yesterday. Prior to yesterday palm oil export data, market initially going up due to Bullish expectation of the news but once it is announce with lower than expected figures, palm oil prices quickly turn its sail and head south. At close, the benchmark Aug closed RM2 lower to 2,334, 2 points apart from the day low at 2,332. Does this sound any alarm for further down side ? In short term, it is a solid yes as there was a lower high formed on 15 minutes or lower time frame chart. But on medium term such as hourly to daily chart, the Bullish technical price outlook remain intact. Yesterday Bearish closed would dampen the outlook but not yet change the overall Bullish outlook for medium term. Nonetheless, it will be a different story to tell if the benchmark Aug manage to breach below previous low / support level around 2,326. Market is poised to head lower if that support level is breach today. The benchmark Aug is expected to open lower due to overnight Soy oil weakness which went down about 0.32 cents to 49.2 cents per pound. For today, pivot support for Aug contract is located around 2,326 followed by 2,319 while resistance is pegged at 2,346 followed by 2,359.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2359
R1= 2346
S1= 2326
S2= 2319
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
"- U.S. stocks on Friday advanced to a fourth weekly gain, with both the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 at all-time closes, after data cast a positive spin on the economy. Up 146% from a dozen-year low in 2009, the S&P 500SPX -0.07% is up nearly 17% for the year so far. Rising 1.6% for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.12% rose 121.18 points on Friday to 15,354.40, with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM -0.02% leading blue-chip gains. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.07% advanced 33.72 points to 3,498.97, up 1.8% from the week-ago finish."
"- Stocks in Hong Kong and Japan jumped to lead Asian markets higher Monday, tracking a positive global lead after key U.S. indexes notched another record finish on Friday, although South Korean shares underperformed amid geopolitical concerns.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +1.78% climbed 1.8% as the market reopened after Friday’s holiday, while the Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +0.17% gained 1.5% in Tokyo, climbing further from levels it hasn’t seen in more than five years. China’s Shanghai CompositeCN:000001 +0.75% edged up 0.8% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO -0.54% gained 0.5%."
"-Crude-oil futures gained on Friday after data showed a rise in U.S. consumer sentiment in May, boosting optimism about the economic recovery. Crude oil for June delivery CLM3 +0.03% added 86 cents to settle at $96.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange."
"-July Soybeans finished up 16 at 1464 1/2, 1 1/2 off the high and 21 1/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 3 1/4 at 1225. This was 14 1/4 up from the low and 4 off the high.
July Soymeal closed up 10.2 at 435.3. This was 10.6 up from the low and 0.5 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished down 0.32 at 49.2, 0.56 off the high and 0.34 up from the low. July soybeans traded higher on the day and pushed up to the highest level since March 8th as strength in the cash market and ideas that producers will continue to be tight holders of old crop helped to support. November soybeans traded down double digits as traders see little impact on the crop "if" soybeans are planted a little late. In addition, traders see the potential for corn delays in Minnesota to result in higher soybean plantings as further delays with heavy rains early this week might spark some switching soon. The July/November spread made a new contract high this morning as the market attempts to shut down crush demand in the face of tight supplies. Weekly export inspections came in at just 3.328 million bushels as compared with 5.88 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the year. Cumulative exports have reached 93.3% of the USDA projection for the season as compared with 86.2% as normal for this time of the year. July meal was up sharply this morning as traders see short-term tightness but plentiful global supply by the fall. July and December oil traded down moderately on the day. Analysts see US soybean planting at 24% complete in this afternoon's planting progress report. This would be the slowest pace for this time since 1996. Plantings were estimated at 6% complete last Monday."
FCPO- Palm Oil Price Slump Due To Weak Export Data
Surprise, surprise ? Not really, I believe most of you head of this " Buy the rumour, Sell the news," and that was what exactly happen yesterday. Prior to yesterday palm oil export data, market initially going up due to Bullish expectation of the news but once it is announce with lower than expected figures, palm oil prices quickly turn its sail and head south. At close, the benchmark Aug closed RM2 lower to 2,334, 2 points apart from the day low at 2,332. Does this sound any alarm for further down side ? In short term, it is a solid yes as there was a lower high formed on 15 minutes or lower time frame chart. But on medium term such as hourly to daily chart, the Bullish technical price outlook remain intact. Yesterday Bearish closed would dampen the outlook but not yet change the overall Bullish outlook for medium term. Nonetheless, it will be a different story to tell if the benchmark Aug manage to breach below previous low / support level around 2,326. Market is poised to head lower if that support level is breach today. The benchmark Aug is expected to open lower due to overnight Soy oil weakness which went down about 0.32 cents to 49.2 cents per pound. For today, pivot support for Aug contract is located around 2,326 followed by 2,319 while resistance is pegged at 2,346 followed by 2,359.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2359
R1= 2346
S1= 2326
S2= 2319
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Monday, May 20, 2013
Palm Oil Might Take Off Higher On Export Positive Anticipation 20th MAy 2013
Monday, 20th May 2013. Commodities market participants are getting early hint on the upcoming palm oil export figure that might recover, the data is due to release today. Other news to follow.
"-U.S. stocks on Friday advanced to a fourth weekly gain, with both the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 at all-time closes, after data cast a positive spin on the economy. Up 146% from a dozen-year low in 2009, the S&P 500SPX +1.03% is up nearly 17% for the year so far. Rising 1.6% for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.80% rose 121.18 points on Friday to 15,354.40, with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM +2.61% leading blue-chip gains.
FCPO- Setting Up For Some Recover On Improve Demand
Closing at the day high for the new benchmark contract, the Aug contract ended RM22 higher to 2,336 on previous Friday. Big market participants such as fund manager, institutional trader, physical palm oil traders might get the early heads up on the upcoming palm oil export report but not all of them did re-act on that news. Although that group of traders might get the early news, most of them are still sceptic whether this positive news will effect the market or how different this news would be ? Asking too much question (doubt yourself) behind your head will only lead to abandoning your trade entry and trading system. The best to avoid risk will be not trading at all, which most traders would do when they are unsure. Back to palm oil outlook, we are expecting decent recovery for Aug contract based on these short term Bullish candle formation. The benchmark Aug is forming higher low as shown on hourly chart above since last Thursday. Take this as early sign for the market to recover as market does not create any lower low for the past one week. If you zoom out to daily chart, it may seems that the Aug contract is coming out from a four week consolidation phase, a good opportunity to go Long currently as market is showing more sign for further rally, today. Pivot support for the Aug contract is located around 2,320 while resistance is pegged at 2,350 level.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2350
R1= 2343
S1= 2328
S2= 2320
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
"-U.S. stocks on Friday advanced to a fourth weekly gain, with both the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 at all-time closes, after data cast a positive spin on the economy. Up 146% from a dozen-year low in 2009, the S&P 500SPX +1.03% is up nearly 17% for the year so far. Rising 1.6% for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.80% rose 121.18 points on Friday to 15,354.40, with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM +2.61% leading blue-chip gains.
The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.97% advanced 33.72 points to 3,498.97, up 1.8% from the week-ago finish."
"- Asian stock markets traded mostly higher Friday, with Japanese blue chips swinging to gains in the afternoon session. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +1.12% closed 0.7% higher, undoing losses from the morning session and erasing Thursday’s 0.4% retreat, which had followed a major jump of 2.3% on Wednesday. Losses for Wall Street overnight had helped dampen sentiment earlier in the day, as the S&P 500 SPX +1.03% finished down 0.5% after a Federal Reserve official tipped a pullback in the central bank’s easing programs could come as soon as this summer."
"-Crude-oil futures gained on Friday after data showed a rise in U.S. consumer sentiment in May, boosting optimism about the economic recovery.
Crude oil for June delivery CLM3 +0.07% added 86 cents to settle at $96.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange."
"-July Soybeans finished up 22 at 1449 1/2, 1/2 off the high and 25 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 10 3/4 at 1228 1/4. This was 16 3/4 up from the low and 3/4 off the high.
July Soymeal closed up 10.2 at 425.1. This was 11.9 up from the low and 0.4 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished unchanged at 49.52, 0.38 off the high and 0.21 up from the low. July soybeans traded up double digits on the day and the July/November spread made a new contract high on firm cash markets and strong meal demand. Traders noted that technical buy signals were triggered midday which helped soybeans advance higher as well. Cash crush margins remain healthy in various areas of the US which helped support old crop contracts relative to new crop. In addition, a modest amount of risk premium was added due to the uncertainly over how long a port worker strike in Brazil will last after the government approved new port reform legislation Thursday night. The USDA announced this morning that private exporters sold 120,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for the 13/14 marketing year and 138,000 tonnes to an unknown destination. In addition, 18,000 tonnes were sold for 12/13 delivery and 120,000 tonnes for 13/14 delivery both to unknown destinations. A well-followed grains analyst released new 13/14 planted acreage estimates this morning and pegged soybean planting at 78.3 million acres, up from 77 million prior and against the USDA forecast of 77.1 million. Yield was estimated at 43.9 bushels per acre as compared with the USDA estimate of 44.5 bushels per acre. Many in the market expect a decline in corn acreage on future USDA reports given the late start to planting and as a result, farmers likely switched over some acres to soybeans."
FCPO- Setting Up For Some Recover On Improve Demand
Closing at the day high for the new benchmark contract, the Aug contract ended RM22 higher to 2,336 on previous Friday. Big market participants such as fund manager, institutional trader, physical palm oil traders might get the early heads up on the upcoming palm oil export report but not all of them did re-act on that news. Although that group of traders might get the early news, most of them are still sceptic whether this positive news will effect the market or how different this news would be ? Asking too much question (doubt yourself) behind your head will only lead to abandoning your trade entry and trading system. The best to avoid risk will be not trading at all, which most traders would do when they are unsure. Back to palm oil outlook, we are expecting decent recovery for Aug contract based on these short term Bullish candle formation. The benchmark Aug is forming higher low as shown on hourly chart above since last Thursday. Take this as early sign for the market to recover as market does not create any lower low for the past one week. If you zoom out to daily chart, it may seems that the Aug contract is coming out from a four week consolidation phase, a good opportunity to go Long currently as market is showing more sign for further rally, today. Pivot support for the Aug contract is located around 2,320 while resistance is pegged at 2,350 level.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2350
R1= 2343
S1= 2328
S2= 2320
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Thursday, May 16, 2013
First Sign Of Temporary Retracement For FKLI 16th May 2013
Thursday, 16th May 2013. Stock index is losing steam to go up gradually but it would not be last for long term. A typical sight to expect in any uptrend market. Other news to follow.
"-U.S. stocks rose Wednesday, with hopes for ongoing central-bank stimulus bolstering sentiment amid economic reports illustrating a contraction in manufacturing. After starting the session in the red, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.40% rose 60.44 points to 15,275.69, the index’s 20th record finish this year. Tallying its 20th record close for 2013, the S&P 500 index SPX +0.51% gained 8.44 points to 1,658.78, with consumer staples faring best and energy the poorest performing of its 10 industry groups."
"- Japanese shares soared Wednesday on the back of a weaker yen and strengthening expectations for earnings growth, sending the benchmark Nikkei Stock Average above the 15,000-point level for the first time in more than five years. Japan’s Nikkei JP:NIK -0.17% was the region’s best performer by far, climbing 2.3% to 15,096.03, a closing level it hasn’t seen since December 2007. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 +0.60% added 0.8%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.29% rose 0.5% after losing ground in the previous two sessions, China’s Shanghai Composite CN:000001 +0.35% gained 0.4% and South Korea’s KospiKR:SEU +0.64% inched up 0.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.12% went against the regional trend, dropping 0.6%."
FKLI- Calm Down, Temporary Retracement, Nothing Major.
Stock index and index futures are setting to come down for some profit taking activities this week after surging to historical high few sessions ago. It is normal to anticipate mild retracement after the market have gone up quite high after the election results announced. Most of the Buying spike occur on 6th May 2013 believe to remain, just that it is gradually diminished this week due to profit taking sessions. Most of the short term traders and investors prefer to take their share of money while they still can before the week end tomorrow. Technically, long and medium term upside for the index futures remain intact after the spot month contract manage to surge above previous temporary double top on 6th May 2013, due to the victory of old ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional. BN victory somehow affirm country "stability" and most of the local and foreign institution will mobilize their fund as there was minimal expectation of chaotic transfer of political power. In other words, market participants love stability and with stability that came after a period of uncertainty, much investors want to put their money back into the equity market. For today, May contract pivot support level is located around 1,766 while resistance is pegged at 1,802.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1802
R1= 1790
S1= 1772
S2= 1766
FCPO- Hovering Within These Range
Remember that I mentioned previously we are trading within a huge consolidation period, now we are still trading within these range suggested on chart above. Palm oil futures had to come down amid negative export data announced yesterday. These bad news would continue to curb price from recovering steadily in the long run, as to force the commodity price to go up demand have to pick. Sluggish demand would not help to reduce palm oil record high stockpiles currently. It is clear to conclude that increasing supply and decreasing demand would result in negative market sentiment in the long run. Technically, medium and long term outlook remain Bearish while for short term, the new benchmark Aug is likely to hover within 2,335~2,340 for the upper range / resistance and lower range / support around 2,276. Market is likely continue to head along with the break out direction if either of these range violated. Judging on current Bearish sentiment, there would be more downside potential if the palm oil futures manage to break down below the lower range. For today, based on pivot calculation alone, benchmark Aug pivot support is located around 2,280 while resistance is pegged at 2,301.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2310
R1= 2301
S1= 2280
S2= 2268
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
"-U.S. stocks rose Wednesday, with hopes for ongoing central-bank stimulus bolstering sentiment amid economic reports illustrating a contraction in manufacturing. After starting the session in the red, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.40% rose 60.44 points to 15,275.69, the index’s 20th record finish this year. Tallying its 20th record close for 2013, the S&P 500 index SPX +0.51% gained 8.44 points to 1,658.78, with consumer staples faring best and energy the poorest performing of its 10 industry groups."
"- Japanese shares soared Wednesday on the back of a weaker yen and strengthening expectations for earnings growth, sending the benchmark Nikkei Stock Average above the 15,000-point level for the first time in more than five years. Japan’s Nikkei JP:NIK -0.17% was the region’s best performer by far, climbing 2.3% to 15,096.03, a closing level it hasn’t seen since December 2007. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 +0.60% added 0.8%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.29% rose 0.5% after losing ground in the previous two sessions, China’s Shanghai Composite CN:000001 +0.35% gained 0.4% and South Korea’s KospiKR:SEU +0.64% inched up 0.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.12% went against the regional trend, dropping 0.6%."
"- Oil futures ended Wednesday with a slight gain as an unexpected decline in the past week’s U.S. crude supplies helped provide enough support for prices to mark their first gain in five sessions. Prices during the trading session had dropped by more than 2% to touch a low under $93 a barrel as weak euro-zone economic data weighed on prospects for energy demand and fueled a rise in the dollar. Crude-oil prices for June delivery CLM3 -0.13% rose 9 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $94.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after tapping an intraday low at $92.13. They tallied a loss of 2.7% over the past four trading sessions."
"-July Soybeans finished down 2 at 1412 3/4, 10 off the high and 10 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 4 1/4 at 1209 3/4. This was 4 up from the low and 11 1/4 off the high.
July Soymeal closed down 1.3 at 410.5. This was 2.9 up from the low and 4.3 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished down 0.41 at 49.35, 0.65 off the high and 0.2 up from the low. Soybeans traded lower on the day amid weak peripheral markets and the US Dollar continued its run higher while copper, crude oil, and gold traded lower. The CRB Index made a new low for the move. The USDA announced this morning that US exporters sold 171,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2013/14 marketing year. News that workers will walk off the job at 3 of the main Brazil ports this week due to failed negotiations with the government were shrugged off as many traders see the improved shipment pace over the last 2 months as evidence that the efficiency in shipments has picked up to China and other world buyers. The NOPA crush report was the story of the day and NOPA pegged April crush at 120.1 million bushels while the market was looking for 125.5 million and the trader estimate range came in at 121-129 million bushels. March crush was reported at 137.08 million bushels and April crush a year ago was pegged at 131.70 million. The fact crush came in below the lowest trader estimate was viewed as negative and sent the July/November spread lower on profit taking but buyers came in late in the session to rally the spread back above +200. The data suggests crush demand is slowing due to firm basis levels in the US but more downtime is needed given the tight supply situation. Domestic crush margins remain relatively healthy for many processors in the Midwest given the firm meal basis and steady demand. Soybean oil traded sharply lower on a modest decline in stocks due to sluggish domestic demand and ample supply. Long term, soybean oil may find support if the crush pace slows further but export capabilities out of the US remains a big question market as Argentina oil becomes available and Malaysian palm oils holds a steep discount to the world market. Soy oil stocks fell to 2.638 billion pounds, down from 2.765 billion in March and below analyst forecasts of 2.65 billion."
FKLI- Calm Down, Temporary Retracement, Nothing Major.
Stock index and index futures are setting to come down for some profit taking activities this week after surging to historical high few sessions ago. It is normal to anticipate mild retracement after the market have gone up quite high after the election results announced. Most of the Buying spike occur on 6th May 2013 believe to remain, just that it is gradually diminished this week due to profit taking sessions. Most of the short term traders and investors prefer to take their share of money while they still can before the week end tomorrow. Technically, long and medium term upside for the index futures remain intact after the spot month contract manage to surge above previous temporary double top on 6th May 2013, due to the victory of old ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional. BN victory somehow affirm country "stability" and most of the local and foreign institution will mobilize their fund as there was minimal expectation of chaotic transfer of political power. In other words, market participants love stability and with stability that came after a period of uncertainty, much investors want to put their money back into the equity market. For today, May contract pivot support level is located around 1,766 while resistance is pegged at 1,802.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1802
R1= 1790
S1= 1772
S2= 1766
FCPO- Hovering Within These Range
Remember that I mentioned previously we are trading within a huge consolidation period, now we are still trading within these range suggested on chart above. Palm oil futures had to come down amid negative export data announced yesterday. These bad news would continue to curb price from recovering steadily in the long run, as to force the commodity price to go up demand have to pick. Sluggish demand would not help to reduce palm oil record high stockpiles currently. It is clear to conclude that increasing supply and decreasing demand would result in negative market sentiment in the long run. Technically, medium and long term outlook remain Bearish while for short term, the new benchmark Aug is likely to hover within 2,335~2,340 for the upper range / resistance and lower range / support around 2,276. Market is likely continue to head along with the break out direction if either of these range violated. Judging on current Bearish sentiment, there would be more downside potential if the palm oil futures manage to break down below the lower range. For today, based on pivot calculation alone, benchmark Aug pivot support is located around 2,280 while resistance is pegged at 2,301.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2310
R1= 2301
S1= 2280
S2= 2268
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Unsustainable Rallies As Long Term Outlook Remain Bearish On FCPO 15th May 2013
Wednesday, 15th May 2013. FCPO recent rallies has been deny by the Bears when the July contract starting to retrace from the high since previous Monday this week, signifying fading strength of Bulls. Other news to follow.
"- U.S. stocks on Tuesday rallied to another record-breaking close as Wall Street embraced the view of a still-improving economy. Advancing for an 18th consecutive Tuesday, the DowDJIA +0.82% added 123.57 points to 15,215.25, with all but four of its 30 components advancing. Also finishing at a record close, the S&P 500 index SPX +1.01% added 16.57 points to 1,650.34, with financial shares faring best among its 10 major industry groups.
"-Mainland Chinese stocks fell Tuesday to lead most major Asian markets lower amid worries Beijing may not ease policy to immediately address an economic slowdown.
"-May Soybeans finished up 3 1/2 at 1524 1/2, 20 1/2 off the high and 9 3/4 up from the low. July Soybeans closed down 4 1/2 at 1414 3/4. This was 9 3/4 up from the low and 11 1/4 off the high.
FCPO- We Need More Positive Data And News
I have wrote bold write up from time to time and although some may sound entirely out of market tune or ridiculous, all of them are just part of the trading journey every traders gone through daily. I had both good and bad days and I do not think this cycle would stop unless I quit trading. The point is, there are x amount of possibility to make a loss or profit when you pull any trades, you cannot get away from these probability. No trade is too good to pass on nor it is too bad to take, you just have to pull the trigger when your trading system or criteria ask you to, the worst you can do is second guessing yourself. Back to FCPO, market has been running into a huge consolidation phase if you zoom out and look at daily chart. ATR has dropped into bottom territory for the past seven months as the market travelled within 2,614~2,209 since Oct 2012. It is normal to expect high ATR range in the Bearish market due to high volatility but not lower than normal reading, which telling you the market is actually consolidating in the long run. On smaller time frame, market will tend to adjust it self if it move too high or too low. And that is what we are looking at right now, market went up to 2,340 previous high at 12th April 2013 and have to retreat due to overbought reading. Settle RM8 lower to 2,301 level, it will do two things from here, making higher low or path more way for further recovery if it could rally above 2,321 level today, or retrace further (Down trending) if the July contract went down below 2,285 level.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2342
R1= 2321
S1= 2285
S2= 2270
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
"- U.S. stocks on Tuesday rallied to another record-breaking close as Wall Street embraced the view of a still-improving economy. Advancing for an 18th consecutive Tuesday, the DowDJIA +0.82% added 123.57 points to 15,215.25, with all but four of its 30 components advancing. Also finishing at a record close, the S&P 500 index SPX +1.01% added 16.57 points to 1,650.34, with financial shares faring best among its 10 major industry groups.
The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.69% gained 23.82 points to 3,462.61."
"-Mainland Chinese stocks fell Tuesday to lead most major Asian markets lower amid worries Beijing may not ease policy to immediately address an economic slowdown.
Japanese equities retreated a day after the after Nikkei Stock Average ended at its highest level in more than five years as the yen strengthened to drop, while South Korean shares advanced on bargain buying in beaten-down automobile firms. The Shanghai Composite CN:000001 -1.11% ended 1.1% lower during the session. The drop comes a day after April data on industrial output and retail sales was broadly interpreted as a slow start to the second quarter for the Chinese economy. Elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.26% dropped 0.3% and Japan’s Nikkei JP:NIK +1.92% let early gains slip by to end 0.2% lower. The benchmark had on Monday ended at its highest close since December 2007. Meanwhile, South Korea’s KospiKR:SEU -0.02% jumped 1% after underperforming other Asian markets recently, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200AU:XJO +0.29% added 0.2%."
"- Oil futures saw a fourth straight session of , as a report from the International Energy Agency detailed a to the global oil market from a surge in North American production. also weighed on dollar-denominated prices for crude, which closed below $95 for the first time since May 2. June crude CLM3 +0.12% fell 96 cents, or 1%, to settle at $94.21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.""-May Soybeans finished up 3 1/2 at 1524 1/2, 20 1/2 off the high and 9 3/4 up from the low. July Soybeans closed down 4 1/2 at 1414 3/4. This was 9 3/4 up from the low and 11 1/4 off the high.
July Soymeal closed down 3.3 at 411.8. This was 1.6 up from the low and 5.9 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished up 0.15 at 49.76, 0.07 off the high and 0.45 up from the low. The soybean market traded lower for most of the session, with the exception of the May contract that was up double digits this morning. The US Dollar made a fresh 10 month high today as investors and traders see a more stable outlook for the US economy which could mean the Fed induced quantitative easing programs may come to an end soon. This helped to pressure markets like crude oil and gold but soybeans managed to find a bid late in the day on tight cash markets and profit taking in the July/November spread. Traders are looking ahead to the NOPA crush report this week as it will provide direction as to the crush pace going forward and demand in the last month. The basis in the Gulf was lower midday on light export demand. The basis weakness moved up the river and bids around St. Louis softened according to physical traders. Soybean export shipments have slowed considerably over the last couple of months as China and other world buyers shift demand to South America. Meal demand continues to be strong out of the US which is helping to keep crush margins steady amid record basis levels in the interior of the US."
FCPO- We Need More Positive Data And News
I have wrote bold write up from time to time and although some may sound entirely out of market tune or ridiculous, all of them are just part of the trading journey every traders gone through daily. I had both good and bad days and I do not think this cycle would stop unless I quit trading. The point is, there are x amount of possibility to make a loss or profit when you pull any trades, you cannot get away from these probability. No trade is too good to pass on nor it is too bad to take, you just have to pull the trigger when your trading system or criteria ask you to, the worst you can do is second guessing yourself. Back to FCPO, market has been running into a huge consolidation phase if you zoom out and look at daily chart. ATR has dropped into bottom territory for the past seven months as the market travelled within 2,614~2,209 since Oct 2012. It is normal to expect high ATR range in the Bearish market due to high volatility but not lower than normal reading, which telling you the market is actually consolidating in the long run. On smaller time frame, market will tend to adjust it self if it move too high or too low. And that is what we are looking at right now, market went up to 2,340 previous high at 12th April 2013 and have to retreat due to overbought reading. Settle RM8 lower to 2,301 level, it will do two things from here, making higher low or path more way for further recovery if it could rally above 2,321 level today, or retrace further (Down trending) if the July contract went down below 2,285 level.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2342
R1= 2321
S1= 2285
S2= 2270
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Monday, May 13, 2013
FCPO Surged Amid Positive Palm Oil Data 13th May 2013
Monday, 13th May 2013. Palm oil futures went up last Friday as encouraging palm oil data support the rally. Other news to follow.
"- U.S. stocks rose Friday as Wall Street racked up a third week of record-setting gains while considering global monetary easing and as finance ministers started a two-day meeting.
"- Crude-oil futures recovered most of their Friday losses to score a modest gain for the week, but pressures from a stronger U.S. dollar and a weak demand outlook remained.
"-May Soybeans finished down 3 at 1488 1/4, 15 1/2 off the high and 7 1/4 up from the low. July Soybeans closed down 9 3/4 at 1399. This was 9 up from the low and 20 1/2 off the high.
FCPO- Eyeing More Upside, Looking At Medium Term Role Reversal
Most of the rally happened last week was highly related to Bullish anticipation on palm oil stock piles will dropped over 10% and further rally was re-affirm when the data came out with 11% stock piles reduction in palm oil. We have actually twice break out on palm oil futures last week prior to market rally last Friday. The first one occur on the 8th May when the July contract breached 2,280 and the second break out was done on 10th May last Friday when the July contract gap up above 2,290 level. So there you have double small break out in hourly chart couple with previous sign of rally before the July contract breach above the resistance trend line shown. Final result from this recovery, market manage to clock about RM100 or 4%, which still leave more room for it to climb as typical medium term rally in long term Bearish market can run for around 8%~12%. Technically, short term outlook for the benchmark July remain Bullish after the price went on and formed higher high and higher low candle pattern. If the July contract manage to rally another 1% this week, we might looking at promising medium reversal role to Bullish. But all these will be only possible if there is some significant rally on Soy oil, or known as palm oil rival products. For today, pivot support for July contract is located around 2,292 while resistance is pegged at 2,337.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2337
R1= 2321
S1= 2292
S2= 2279
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
"- U.S. stocks rose Friday as Wall Street racked up a third week of record-setting gains while considering global monetary easing and as finance ministers started a two-day meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.24% added 35.87 points to 15,118.49, its highest close ever. Also finishing at an all-time high, the S&P 500 index SPX +0.43% added 7.03 points to 1,633.70, with health care the best performing and energy the worst performing among its 10 sectors."
"- Japanese stocks were propelled higher Friday after the U.S. dollar climbed atop the 100-yen level for the first time in four years, stoking sharp gains in exporters. Most other regional markets also rose, although gains were capped as stocks on Wall Street dropped overnight, taking a breather after key U.S. benchmarks closed at record highs on multiple occasions recently. Japan’s Nikkei Stock AverageJP:NIK +1.46% finished the day 2.9% higher at 14,607.54, clinching a weekly gain of 6.7%. The broader Topix JP:I0000 +1.71% gained 2.4% to 1,210.60.
"- Crude-oil futures recovered most of their Friday losses to score a modest gain for the week, but pressures from a stronger U.S. dollar and a weak demand outlook remained.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries warned of challenges ahead that could change its demand outlook, even as it left its key oil supply and demand forecasts unchanged. Crude oil for June delivery CLM3 -0.81% fell 35 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $96.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday. It recovered most of the session’s steep losses — a selloff which saw prices fall below $94."
"-May Soybeans finished down 3 at 1488 1/4, 15 1/2 off the high and 7 1/4 up from the low. July Soybeans closed down 9 3/4 at 1399. This was 9 up from the low and 20 1/2 off the high.
July Soymeal closed down 6.4 at 406.8. This was 0.8 up from the low and 12.5 off the high.
July Soybean Oil finished up 0.01 at 49.23, 0.28 off the high and 0.63 up from the low. The soybean market traded sharply lower on the day with the November contract acting as the leader to the downside. The USDA report was considered bearish against trade expectations after the USDA pegged new crop ending stocks at 265 million bushels, up from trade estimates at 236 million. The 2012/13 carryout came in unchanged from last month at 125 million bushels. Crush and export numbers were left unchanged. Planted acreage was estimated at 77.1 million acres and yield at 44.5 bushels per acre to leave a production forecast of 3.39 billion bushels which would be a new record high. World ending stocks for the 2012/13 season came in at 62.46 million tonnes as compared 62.6 million tonnes in last month's estimate. World ending stocks for 2013/14 were estimated at 74.96 million tonnes as compared with trader estimates near 69 million tonnes. This is a record high. The Brazil soybean crop production estimate came in at 83.50 million, unchanged from last month. Argentina production was pegged at 51.0 million tonnes from 51.50 in April."
FCPO- Eyeing More Upside, Looking At Medium Term Role Reversal
Most of the rally happened last week was highly related to Bullish anticipation on palm oil stock piles will dropped over 10% and further rally was re-affirm when the data came out with 11% stock piles reduction in palm oil. We have actually twice break out on palm oil futures last week prior to market rally last Friday. The first one occur on the 8th May when the July contract breached 2,280 and the second break out was done on 10th May last Friday when the July contract gap up above 2,290 level. So there you have double small break out in hourly chart couple with previous sign of rally before the July contract breach above the resistance trend line shown. Final result from this recovery, market manage to clock about RM100 or 4%, which still leave more room for it to climb as typical medium term rally in long term Bearish market can run for around 8%~12%. Technically, short term outlook for the benchmark July remain Bullish after the price went on and formed higher high and higher low candle pattern. If the July contract manage to rally another 1% this week, we might looking at promising medium reversal role to Bullish. But all these will be only possible if there is some significant rally on Soy oil, or known as palm oil rival products. For today, pivot support for July contract is located around 2,292 while resistance is pegged at 2,337.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2337
R1= 2321
S1= 2292
S2= 2279
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
