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Friday, March 20, 2015

FPCO: Swift Come Back For Bulls 18th March 2015

Thursday, 18th March 2015.  Palm oil futures for Jun contract went up substantially after hitting 2,128 level, Soy oil did provide some assistance by recovering on the Asia trading session. Other news to follow.



FCPO- It Would Not Be A Straight Line Recovery Nor Down Trend



Every time the market moved substantially, it will caught most traders off guard, always. You can see it when the market move substantially, it kept on heading to the same direction with force behind and most traders who does not re-act will be caught off guard. And when these traders realized it has to bite the bullets and exit, it will be a painful losses to bear. This is what happen every time the market move, it does not matter where does it move, move up or down, sideways, it doesn.t matter at all. The point is, price will sometime kept on breaking the support and resistance because there are alway traders getting caught off guard, those traders have to force exit their positions to stop from bleeding. There is always some poor bastard caught off guard when the market moved, and they can give you even the most ridiculous reason why they cannot re-act. Back to market outlook, FCPO Jun no doubt manage to recover most of its this week losses. And the Bulls did it with style, the Jun contract went up about a whopping 2.48% higher to settle at 2,193 level yesterday. There is no deny, Bulls were present yesterday starting from the beginning of afternoon session. What lies next might be the first immediate resistance level around 2,220, and if this level is taken out, short term outlook may return to sideways. Currently the Bears are still holding the trump cards for the moment, but all this can change if the price kept on recover above 2,220 level this or early next week. However, there are a few short term concern that might curb this recovery, steady slow down on palm oil export, soy oil and crude oil were generally still on Bearish trend in both short term and long term. For today, support for the Jun contract is located around 2,149 while ressitance is pegged at 2,237

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2237
R1= 2215
S1= 2149
S2= 2105
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

FCPO: Palm Oil Retrace From 2,400 5th March 2015

Thursday, 5th March 2015. Palm oil futures dive down after hitting 2,400 for the benchmark month, maybe the ship has sailed too close to the shore and hit some rocks. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks declined for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, sending the S&P 500 to the lowest level in two weeks. Investors remained cautious ahead of the closely watched official jobs report, due on Friday, amid mixed economic data this week. Private-sector employment data on Wednesday showed continued gains in February but at a slower pace than in the prior month. Meanwhile, a gauge of activity in the services sector edged up last month. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.44% closed 9.24 points, or 0.4%, lower at 2,098.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.58% dropped 106.41 points, or 0.6%, to 18,096.96. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.26% ended the day down 12.76 points, or 0.3%, at 4,967.14."

"-Hong Kong stocks extended losses Wednesday, as markets cautiously wait for China to reveal its major economic programs and targets for the year.
The Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.96%  closed 1% lower, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises HSCEI, -1.73%  , which tracks Hong Kong-listed mainland Chinese companies, was down 1.7%."

"-Oil futures settled higher on Wednesday even though the U.S. government reported a much bigger-than-expected increase in weekly crude supplies. Analysts said prices likely found support on the heels of Saudi Arabia's decision to raise prices for its Arab Light crude and comments from the country's oil minister - both of which implied growing demand for oil. April crude CLJ5, +0.19% rose $1.01, or 2%, to settle at $51.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange."


FCPO- Impending Correction



2,400 was a panic button for most traders previously, it is where the implementation of export tax if the price went above this level. Even tho the government has decide to extend the zero cost export tax, most traders still think 2,400 was too hard to penetrate. You all saw it yesterday when the benchmark month just touch 2,400 level and boooom, start retracing from that level. To make matter worse, price went haywire from 2,382 level and below, jumping down to 15 points lower straight. Few lots were done between that, but most stops were done at 2,365 level. Yes, it is a vicious vacuum, things happen all the time, you can blame it to the market depth, no Buyers standing by or anything you can come up, it is pointless anyway as things already happen. The best action would be charting the next steps you need to take. As a trader, one must be prepare for anything, market vacuum is one of it. Back to the outlook, yesterday significant correction may signifies first sign of weakness. It may not look much on daily chart but when you zoom into intraday chart, it become clearer that there is huge rejection from 2,400 and the May contract does ended around the low of the day. To make things worse, Soy oil dipped to 32.28 cents as the time of writing compare to 32.85 cents on yesterday 6.00PM. Now there are news that pointing at lower production cycle for this year and this event may eventually reduce stockpiles but that news is too subjective for me to make any decision of any form in the market. Yes, dumb the news please, it got nothing to do with me, at least. For today, pivot support for the May contract is located around 2,327 while resistance is pegged at 2,373.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2419
R1=2392
S1=2346
S2=2327
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

FCPO: Palm Oil Demand In Concern

Wednesday, 25th May 2015. Palm oil futures made some significant recovery yesterday amid oversold reading since last Monday. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks moved higher Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow industrials closing at records, as the market read Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress as a reassurance that a rate hike might not occur until the second half of the year. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.28%  finished up by 5.82 points, or 0.3%, at 2,115.48, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.51% gained 92.35 points, or 0.5%, to end at 18,209.19. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.14%  added 7.15 points, or 0.1%, to end at 4,968.12, leaving it just 1.6% off its March 2000 peak. The tech-heavy index advanced for the 10th session in a row, scoring its longest winning streak since mid-2009, when it rose for 12 straight days."


"-The U.S. crude-oil benchmark failed to hold on to initial gains Tuesday, losing ground for a fifth straight session as traders awaited the latest round of supply data. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude futures for delivery in April CLJ5, +0.00% lost 17 cents, or 0.3%, to close at $49.28 a barrel. WTI’s losing streak is the longest since August. Brent crude for April delivery LCOJ5, +0.26%  on London’s ICE exchange also failed to hold on to initial gains, dropping 24 cents, or 0.4%, to close at $58.66 a barrel."



FCPO- Demand Have To Pick Up, Or Else.



Palm oil futures for May contract manage to recover up to 2,259 level from 2,216 yesterday. The recovery made happen in the afternoon session when Soy oil starting to climb from 31.33 cents per pound to 31.55 cents per pound before FCPO trading time came to stop at six o'clock sharp. It was a strong come back for the May contract as price kept on recovering ever since of the beginning of afternoon session. What drove these recovery might be oversold reading occur on Monday as panic Selling reign the condition of the market on last Monday, weaker than expected Soy oil also gave some push to the downside as well. First quarter will be a low season for production usually but this element would change on second quarter as production is likely pick up soon after that. Technically, May contract rebound was a first attempt to overturn the overall short term Bearish outlook back to sideways. Long term wise, it is still a Bullish market judging on daily chart. The rest of the recovery may have to depend on how well the Soy oil recover for the rest of the week. So far, Lower highs and lower lows have been formed on hourly chart and this signifies Bears can quickly gain control if other edible oil starting to decline. For today, pivot support for May contract is located around 2,229 while resistance is pegged at 2,287.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2287
R1= 2272
S1= 2229
S2= 2201
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Happy Chinese New Year 2015



Happy Chinese New Year 2015 to everyone, stay healthy always !!

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

FCPO: 2,400 Level Export Tax Curb Palm Oil Recovery 11th Feb 2015

Wednesday, 11th Feb 2015. Palm oil futures is still playing its little upward and downward swing, in a good way I presume. Other news to follow.


"- U.S. stocks rallied at the end the day Tuesday, sending the benchmark S&P 500 to its highest close this year, during what was another characteristically volatile day for equities. Investor optimism was fueled by hopes that embattled Greece and its creditors are nearing a compromise to avert a default, even though both sides continued to reiterate statements that suggests an accord is far from imminent. Earlier in the trading session, European and U.S. equities got a boost after news reports offered hope that the European Commission was considering a six-month debt extension. However, investors remained optimistic even though rumors of an extension were dismissed by Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble. The S&P 500 SPX, +1.07%  closed 21.84 points, or 1.1%, higher at 2,068.58 and turned positive for the year. Nine of the 10 main sectors finished higher, while energy-sector stocks ended with modest losses, following a drop in oil prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.79%  jumped 139.55 points, or 0.8%, to 17,868.76, with 26 of its 30 member ending with gains. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.30%  added 61.63 points, or 1.3%, to 4,787.64, helped by a big gain in Apple, Inc., the heaviest-weighted component in the tech-laden index."


"- Hong Kong stocks saw their earlier losses melt away and closed marginally higher at the close of Tuesday’s trading. Data showing China’s consumer-price inflation at its lowest in five years, was balanced by news that the Chinese central bank had injected liquidity into the markets helping the sentiment. The Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.06%  ended in positive territory, up less than 0.1%."
"-Crude-oil futures fell more than 5% Tuesday to their lowest settlement level in nearly a week as concerns about a persistent supply glut resurfaced ahead of weekly U.S. inventory updates. Light, sweet crude futures for delivery in March CLH5, +1.48%  on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.84, or 5.4%, to settle at $50.02 a barrel. That was the lowest settlement level since Feb. 4."


FCPO- Bulls Have To Wait Longer


Palm oil futures would be running its course of direction downwards for the moment, after some Bearish candle formation appeared yesterday. The lower high and lower low candle formation formed on hourly chart is early sign that April contract may suffer higher downside risk. Most of the Sellers manage to overcome Buying interest when the price made it to 2,342 yesterday. It was a brief rally and turn out to be profit taking activities right after the April contract hit 2,342 level. The long Bearish solid candle signifies there was a lot of Selling pressure right after the market resume on 3pm yesterday and all the way to 4pm. It is a sign that the palm oil futures is likely to go down, but not a definitely it would go down for sure. No one can tell for sure what is going to happen on the next 30 secs, nevermind the next day. Discipline and pro-active risk management is what seperated the novice and informed trader. The novices always think about when and where they can hit the jackpot while an informed trader would always think about how to protect themself each time the positions are entered. If you heard about the old race between tortoise and hare, the odds were against the tortoise but in the end it was the tortoise who won the race. Trading futures or any financial market is a journey, and it will be a long journey to get wise. For today, pivot support for April contract is located around 2,262 while resistance is pegged at 2,331.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2362
R1= 2331
S1= 2281
S2= 2262
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

FCPO: Weak Demand And In-active International On Edible Oil Transaction Curb Price 28th Jan 2015

Wednesday, 28th Jan 2015. Palm oil futures went down for another week since 15th Jan 2015 and never look back. The rejection on price 2,394 was a rather substantial and no one can tell for sure it would become this bad. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks recorded their biggest decline in three weeks on Tuesday, following a surprise drop in durable-goods orders and disappointing earnings from Microsoft Corp. and Caterpillar Inc. The weak data stoked fears that economic growth is decelerating The S&P 500 SPX, -1.34%  closed down 27.53 points, or 1.3%, at 2,029.56, as Microsoft Corp. MSFT, -9.25%  and Caterpillar Inc. CAT, -7.18%  plunged to lead losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.65%  dropped as much as 380 points, but closed down 291.49 points, or 1.7%, at 17,387.21. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.89%  ended the day with a loss of 90.27 points, or 1.9%, at 4,681.50, as its largest component, Apple Inc. AAPL, -3.50% slid 3.5%."
"- Chinese stocks broke a five-day winning streak on Tuesday, as Hong Kong and Shanghai markets both pulled back amid concerns fueled by a drop in the profit growth at major Chinese industrial companies and a previous sharp fall for China’s yuan. At the same time, Japanese stocks advanced to one-month high, after Greek election results impacted global markets by less than expected Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.41%  retreated 0.4% to 24,897.28, after touching a four-month high in the previous close. Over on the mainland, the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -0.89%  fell 0.9% to 3,352.96, also pulling back from its best closing level in more than five years. The declines came after official data showing that profit at major Chinese industrial companies grew 3.3% year-on-year in 2014, down sharply from a 12.2% increase in 2013."
"-Crude-oil futures rose more than 2% on Tuesday, as some optimism about curtailing output seemed to permeate markets and ahead of a fresh weekly report on stockpiles. Light, sweet crude futures for delivery in March CLH5, -1.84%  rose $1.08, or 2.4%, to settle at $46.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The settlement snapped a three-day losing streak. Prices had weaved in and out of the red earlier in the day, trading as low as $44.81 a barrel and as high as $46.55 a barrel."


FCPO- Still A Long Way To Go For Bulls To Regain Power


The benchmark April went down again and this time with some consolation prize. Instead of keep on going down the April contract did recover slightly yesterday from 2,151 level to 2,184 level on late afternoon session. This might be a good news for those who have Longed slightly below 2,200 level, and that is all the break you can get as Bearish tone in palm oil futures is yet subside. Today, palm oil futures is likely open lower amid recent weakness in Soy oil. The actively traded April contract on Soy oil dropped back to 30.87 cents per pound, which is likely giving negative opening to palm oil futures soon. Technically, lower lows and lower highs formed on hourly chart are the key sign for the market to go down two weeks ago. As a trader, these chart formations are very hard to ignore, and as a trend trader you better take action. It is simple for our eyes to see what happen in the chart, but most of us choose not to trust and act on it. That is a also a simple fact on why most traders failed, seasoned or new traders would go into the same loop of failure if they expect different results doing the same thing. The problem with our society was, smart people are full of doubt and foolish people are full of confidence. In case of trading business, smart people was too smart to act on the chart, smart people takes in news and whatever factor they can come up with, just another good reason for them to pull the trigger. For smart people, chart is too simple to begin with. It is a fatal mindset in trading business to think everyone act the same with similar information appear on the chart. Well, for foolish people, it is the direct opposite of smart people in the trading business. So, which kind of trader you would wished to be, a perfect compromised would be being smart and foolish at the right timing.
For today range, palm oil futures for April contract is likely hovering within 2,185 to 2,146 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2206
R1= 2195
S1= 2162
S2= 2140
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

FCPO: Its A Swift Selling From 2,394 to 2,300 20th Jan 2014

Tueday, 20th Jan 2015. Palm oil futures has its run down from the peak 2,394 to 2,298 previous Friday and this new weekly break out might not sustain. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks ended the roller-coaster week on a high note, as a rally in oil prices and calmer currency markets provided a rare boost of confidence. The main benchmarks broke a five-day losing streak, but still ended the fourth-straight week with losses. The S&P 500 SPX, +1.34% closed up 26.75 points, or 1.3%, at 2,019.42, but was down 1.2% over the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.10% gained 190.86 points, or 1.1%, to 17,511.57, and lost 1.3% over the week. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.39% ended the day with a gain of 63.56 points, or 1.4%, at 4,634.38, and recorded a 1.5% weekly loss."

"- Chinese stocks dived the most in over six years Monday, with a wide sell-off sweeping across the financial sector as investors turned jittery over the latest move by securities regulators to clean up the margin-trading business. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -7.70%   plunged 7.7% to close at 3,116.35, posting its biggest daily percentage decline since June 2008 . Prior to Monday’s heavy loss, the index was up 4.4% for the month to date, extending gains after finishing 2014 with a sharp 53% advance. The plunge in mainland China helped to push Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index HSI, -1.51%  down 1.5%, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises — which tracks Hong Kong-listed mainland Chinese companies — off 5%."

"-Crude-oil futures pushed lower in volatile action during European trading hours on Monday, as another investment bank slashed its price forecasts and investors braced for another week of potential market upheaval. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in February CLG5, +2.92%  traded at $48.17 a barrel in recent trade, down 63 cents, or 1.3%, in the Globex electronic session. March Brent crude LCOH5, +0.18%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell 52 cents, or 1%, to $49.63 a barrel."


FCPO- No Straight Line Here


Market is full of surprises, at least for my case. There is no telling whenever the trend is coming or it doesn't at all. I am talking about the recent weekly upside break out on FCPO April which made the price break above from previous high at 2,384 level. According to most text book or trend trading manual so to speak, most of these medium term to long term trader would to place their bet if the price manage to break out from certain high. I believe previous Friday break out was at least one week high and those who was targeted to go Long on the next break out would likely went in to Long position. Unfortunately, these types of trade only bring out small percentage of winning ratio. Most of these kind of break out does not rally to the next significant resistance level, example for this case, 2,400 point. What we have now is a heavy profit taking, retracement or whatever you can call it. The fact is, all of the gain made last week was wipe out in a few hours when the April contract strike down to 2,298. It is futile to find out what happen in the background of that drop because market is always evolve and changing. What we can do now, would be charter our next direction, do we bet all out on this retracement or do we wait for further rally to go Long / Short. The best thing to do now will be setting your position to Long at the previous Friday low around 2,300, placing tight stop loss and wait for the market to rally the next hour and eventually hitting the previous high if lucky. If unlucky, we might just cutting loss on a small margin. Vice versa if the market is going up, resistance is pegged around 2,348 for the moment. Set your Short position around that resistance area, place tight stop when your Short position filled and wait. Just wait  until your stop hit or hold overnight if the market is favoring you. That was part of the game plan if you wish to trade in this temporary ranging market.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2348
R1= 2326
S1= 2292
S2= 2280

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

FCPO: Some Difference In News And External Market 13th Jan 2015

Tuesday, 13th Jan 2015. Palm oil futures manage to recover on late of afternoon session after it retrace gradually on morning and early afternoon session. Soy oil dropped to 32.88 cents per pound or 2% yesterday. Other news to follow.

"-The U.S. stock market ended Monday's session with losses for the second straight trading day, as a renewed sell-off in oil once again hit investor confidence. Energy, technology and financials, which collectively comprise nearly half of the S&P 500, led the losses. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.81% closed down 16.52 points, or 0.8%, at 2,028.29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.54%dropped 96.53 points, or 0.5%, to 17,640.84. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.84%ended the day down 39.36 points, or 0.8%, at 4,664.71."

"-Oil futures plunged Monday, with the U.S. benchmark trading below the $46-a-barrel threshold for the first time in nearly six years after Goldman Sachs cut its crude outlook, predicting prices will remain low for a lengthy period. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for February delivery CLG5, -1.52%  fell $2.29, or 4.7%, to close at $46.07 a barrel after trading as low as $45.90. The close was the lowest since April 2009. The move followed a 0.9% loss during Friday’s regular session on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI futures are down more than 57% from a June 2014 high of $107.26 a barrel. Meanwhile, Brent North Sea crude oil for February LCOG5, -5.81% the global benchmark, lost $2.68, or 5.4%, to $47.43 a barrel, its lowest finish since March 2009."




FCPO- The Market Is Deciding The Next Path, Hang In There.



Lets get straight to the point, palm oil futures is looking for further recovery as suggested on the longer term chart. Steady higher lows and higher highs can be spotted on hourly chart and these significant candle likely indicate price is positive to rise further. Maybe the right question would be, where would it continue to rise for this week. The answer will always be no one would know for sure, it is the trader's job to make sure he/she is part of that move, period. Most traders would want to relate yesterday substantial surge on afternoon session were likely due to palm oil production that slump about 22% for Dec vs Nov 2014, it was the lowest since 2006. Palm oil slow production was linked to worst flood on the eastern coast and southern part of Malaysia, the catastrophe just stop last week. With such a big dropped in production, it is likely support price from falling too steep, at least for this week. On the negative side, Soy oil for March contract plunge to 32.88 cents from 33.40 cents yesterday. We are going to see lower opening for March contract today, estimating at around 10 points to 20 points lower. Fortunately, the Bears have to work harder to change current Bullish sentiment to short term correction. Today, support level would be place around yesterday low, which is around 2,325 level. Bear in mind that the market might ignore most positive news if the price went down below 2,320 level this week. We are likely to see more correction if the March contract retrace lower than 2,320 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2397
R1=2379
S1= 2335
S2= 2309
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

FCPO: The Journey Is Still North From Here 6th Jan 2015

Tuesday, 6th Jan 2015. Time really flew and today is already the sixth day of 2015. Palm oil futures is believe to heading North for the moment judging from the ability for the benchmark contract to breach slightly above 2,300.

"-U.S. stocks were clobbered Monday in an indiscriminate sell-off triggered by a renewed plunge in crude oil prices and surging dollar, which left the Dow and the S&P with their worst losses since OctoberThe S&P 500 SPX, -1.83%  closed off session lows but still suffered its largest one-day decline in three months. The index also suffered its longest losing streak in a 12-month period, falling for the fourth-straight session. The benchmark index lost 37.62 points, or 1.8%, to 2,020.58. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.86%  also had its worst down day since October, with 28 of its 30 components closing with losses. The blue-chip index dropped 331.34 points, or 1.9%, to 17,501.65. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.57%  shed 74.24 points, or 1.6%, to 4,652.57, while Russell 2000 RUT, -1.46%  closed down preliminary 15 points, or 1.3%, to 1,183."

"-Mainland Chinese stocks rallied to their highest close in more than five years on Monday, the first trading day of the new year, led by strength in the energy and real-estate sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +3.58%  popped up 3.6% to end at 3,350.52, marking its biggest daily percentage gain in a month. In the previous trading session last week, the index also finished higher, ending 2014 as the world’s top-performing major equity market with an annual gain of 52%."
"-Oil futures fell Monday, stretching their losing streak to a third session and hitting their lowest levels in more than five years on concerns over a surging U.S. dollar and nagging worries of growing oil supplies. Light, sweet crude for delivery in February fell $2.65, or 5%, to settle at $50.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices traded as low as $49.77 a barrel earlier in the session. The settlement was the lowest for a front-month crude contract since April 28, 2009. Prices have lost 7.5% over the last three sessions. February Brent on London’s ICE Futures exchange  declined $3.31, or 5.9%, to end at $53.11 a barrel, the lowest settlement since May 1, 2009. Brent has lost 8.3% over the past three sessions."


FCPO- Bulls Next Hurdle, 2,310.



Palm oil futures is running on North side for now despite weaker soy oil price. The most actively traded March contract manage to breached above 2,300 for the first time since early December 2014. Some may agree that recent hiking in palm oil futures is likely linked to bad flood and poor weather condition in Southern and eastern area in Malaysia. That might somehow be true as not only the production is likely to slow down, local logistic system is also affected. Slowing production would eventually reduce stocks level but we still have a great length to expect production to slow down. Majority producers are likely taking advantage of low or zero export tax for the moment and that's explain production level is likely staying unchanged for the next few month. Another reason to cheer for palm oil futures to recover would be seasonal event such as Chinese new year celebration and this event will also slightly increase Soy oil import for China. Back to chart outlook, the March is doing well holding its gain for now, and the next step for further recovery would taking out the previous high at 2,310 level. Unless this event materialize, we are likely to see resilient price action ranging from 2,290 to 2,250 level, at least for this week. Unfortunately, market is likely going back to sideways market if the March contract dive down below 2,200 level. Keep looking for sign of weakness on 30 minutes time frame if the March unable to breach 2,310 level after a few attempt. It will be a good way to abandon Long position by then. For today, pivot point for support is located around

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2308
R1=2285
S1=2250
S2=2238
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

FCPO: Flood On Southern Might Support On The Way Up 30 Dec 2014

Tuesday, 30 Dec 2014. Palm oil futures gap up about 1.8% on opening bell yesterday, it was the biggest gap for the past four months. This rally does caught some trader off guard when they are still using sideways /ranging technique to trade last week. Other news to follow.

"- The S&P 500 edged up to another record close on Monday, but the Dow industrials snapped a seven-session winning streak. Utilities, the best-performing S&P sector this year, showed the biggest gain among the 10 main sectors on Monday. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.09% rose by 1.80 points, or 0.1%, to close at 2,090.57, leaving the benchmark up 13.1% for 2014, with two trading sessions left in the year. Monday’s mark also was the index’s 53rd record close of the year, or an average of one a week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.09% dipped 15.48 points, or 0.1%, to end at 18,038.23. The blue-chip gauge, up 8.8% so far in 2014, pulled back from a record close achieved Friday. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.00%  inched up by 0.05 point to finish at 4,806.91, while the small-cap Russell 2000 RUT, +0.32% tacked on 3.90 points, or 0.3%, to 1,219.11."

"- Hong Kong stocks jumped Monday morning, playing catch-up with the Shanghai markets after returning from a four-day weekend. The Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.34% gained 1.9% after recent reports said China's central bank had changed its rules to allow deposits from non-bank financial institutions to count as reserves, a measure aimed at increasing lending and boosting growth. The Hang Seng China Enterprises, tracking mainland-China-based companies, advanced 4.1%."

"- Gold prices pulled back Monday after some wide swings during Christmas week. Gold for February delivery GCG5, +0.33%  fell $13.40, or 1.1%, to settle at $1,181.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Silver for March deliverySIH5, +0.55%  also fell, slipping nearly 37 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $15.78 an ounce."


FCPO- Bulls Are Leaping Ahead. 

Palm oil futures is likely running on positive note after the flood condition on southern Malaysia and east coast are likely to prolong. Current weather condition is likely disturb production and logistic system for the moment. Price is likely supported by the reduced production for final month of 2014 but we are still yet sure whether this rally could turn to be an uptrend. If we are going to expect some steady recovery for palm oil, crude oil and Soy oil have to provide support as well in the longer run. Back to the palm oil technical outlook, we might be looking at continuous rally after the promising break out from two weeks resistance for benchmark March contract, yesterday. There is no telling when will the gap from 2,252 to 2,285 could be fill but if the march contract does open lower or drop lower than 2,284 level, we are likely to see some mild retracement from that level. These gap area will become resilient for the price to adjust up and down, but I am expecting the benchmark March to find support at around 2,250 level this week. Else, if the benchmark March continue to rally from here, there is no telling where is the next resistance will be and yes we might be expecting at least another 100 points rally. For today, pivot support for the March contract is located around 2,276 while resistance is pegged at 2,317.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2317
R1= 2301
S1= 2276
S2= 2267
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.