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Thursday, October 30, 2014

FCPO: The Upper Range Is Broken, Bulls Coming Back 30th Oct 2014.

Thursday, 30th Oct 2014. Palm oil futures is likely open higher today judging on promising recovery in Soy oil futures. Soy oil futures for Jan contract was traded at new high at around 34.51 cents per pound as the time of writing. Other news to follow.

"-The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a four-day winning streak on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve made official its plans to end the last round of its recession-era stimulus program. Most major stock benchmarks slipped lower, after an initial knee-jerk bout of panic, in the wake of the Fed’s policy decision, which came just after 2 p.m. Eastern time. Stocks did recover somewhat, but still ended Wednesday’s trading session in the red. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.14% closed 2.75 points, or 0.1%, lower at 1,982.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index, which was already under pressure from Internet stocksCOMP, -0.33% lost 15 points, or 0.3%, to 4,549.23. Meanwhile, the Dow industrialsDJIA, -0.18% ended down 31.44 points, or 0.2%, at 16,974."

"-The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) announced Sunday that it did not know when the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, or “Hu-Gang Tong,” would be launched because it has not received the central government’s approval.  Fears of the program being derailed by pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong were voiced before the HKEx 0388, -0.12% HKXCF, +1.98%  announcement. The Hong Kong Commercial Daily, a Chinese-language newspaper sold in the city and in neighboring mainland areas, cited an anonymous source as saying Hu-Gang Tong will probably not be introduced by the end of the year because central government authorities think the atmosphere in the former British colony is causing bad timing for any new economic cooperation scheme."

"-MPOC Expects CPO Prices to Rise Next Year
KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects crude palm oil price (CPO) to increase to between RM2,100 and RM2,500 next year, lifted by factors such as biofuel demand and petroleum price level. Its chief executive officer, Tan Sri Yusof Basiron, said besides supply and demand, biofuel demand and petroleum price level would determine whether more or less of biodiesel would be used. "The announcement by Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister, Datuk Seri Douglas Uggah Embas, to impose a requirement for biodiesel to use seven per cent palm oil, from five% now, was a way to firm up the CPO price," he told Bernama yesterday. Basiron said this on the sidelines of MPOC's International Palm Oil Trade Fair and Seminar 2014 here. Uggah had said the move aimed to lower stocks and boost prices that had declined by over 20% this year. The implementation would start in stages from November in Peninsular Malaysia and in Sarawak, Sabah and Federal Territory Labuan by December, he said. Basiron said the government also tried to remove depressing factors on prices by providing export duty exemption for CPO."This would remove any bearish factors affecting palm oil price. "The move will also stimulate the country's export and help rationalise the stock level," he said. Source : Bernama"



FCPO- The Bulls Are Out Of The Cage. 

Palm oil futures rallied to multi sessions high and closed at 2,267 yesterday amid strong rally in Soy oil. More promising rally is about to happen again today as Soy oil manage to record about 0.80 cents rally overnight and it is still rallying at the time of writing. Yesterday market frantic rally may contributed by the news of declining output in palm oil top producer and depleting inventories as well. For whatever the reasons were, again, it is not a must that the trader knows it, but it is compulsory for a trader to consistently follow the trading plan before him, period. I for an instance, does not know such news until today, so does it make me to less informed to other trader in the market ? The answer is no doubt yes, I am less informed on this news and I did not care because it was not the news that made me enter and exit my positions based on these kind of news. I have a plan, and it was crucial for me that I trade based on that plan. Staying and working according to the your tailored made plan or system is the best edge you have, to stand a chance winning in the long term. News or known as external factors in my vocabulary did not give me any measurable technique to use in the market. By the time I knew there was such news, it was already too late as the price would have moved away from your exit point. Back to palm oil futures outlook, "the bulls are indeed out of the cage," and it might continue to charge further until there some indication in hourly chart that may suggest slowing down. For this week, resistance is pegged at 2,325 while pivot support is located around 2,233.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2,296
R1= 2,279
S1= 2,233
S2= 2,204
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

FCPO: TaKing Its Own Sweet Time To Move 21st Oct 2014

Tuesday, 21st Oct 2014. Palm oil futures is trading below the previous support range at around 2,136 level but kept on staying there for the moment, Soy oil getting weaker. Other news to follow.


"- U.S. equity investors began the week on an optimistic, albeit cautious, note on Monday, with gains in broader markets led by defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities. Monday’s positive movement in the Dow industrial comes even as one of its major components, IBM, posted disappointing quarterly results, pushing shares of the tech giant lower and dragging down the broader index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.12%  closed 19.26 points, or 0.1%, higher at 16,399.67. The blue-chip index is down 1.1% since the start of the year. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.91%  gained 17.25 points, or 0.9% to 1,904.01. The benchmark index fell below its 200-day moving average last Monday and still remains a few points below that key level. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.35%  rose 57.64 points, or 1.4%, to 4,316.07, led by gains in biotech and internet stocks."


"-Stocks in Tokyo staged their biggest rally in 16 months on Monday as investors bargain-hunted despite lingering concerns about global growth that sparked volatility in markets last week. After sliding 5% last week, the Nikkei Stock Average NIK, -0.57%  rose 4.0% to 15,111.23. The index had hit correction territory on Friday, having fallen more than 10% from a peak in late September. The market also rallied on news that Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest public pension fund with some $1.21 trillion in assets, is working on raising its portfolio allocation devoted to domestic stocks to around 25%. There was a scramble to cover short positions, pushing shares higher."

"-Crude-oil futures ticked lower Monday, ending a brief relief rally that emerged late last week. Traders remained unsure whether prices for the commodity have hit bottom and oversupply concerns continued. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November CLX4, +0.01%  declined 4 cents, or less than 0.1%, to settle at $82.71 a barrel. December Brent crude LCOZ4, -0.18%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange declined 76 cents, or 0.9%, to finish at $85.40 a barrel, also putting a stop on two straight days of gains."


FCPO- Might Be Looking At Equally Matched Bulls And Bears

Palm oil futures had break below the major support level at around 2,136 last week but manage to stay afloat around this level for the moment. Even though Soy oil is continuing to record lower prices, palm oil futures is still manage to descend slowly than expected this week. In any market, a downforce or Bearish move should be swifter than uptrend but not in this case as there was still some Bulls influence throughout the trading session. I am starting to think Bears are not that aggressive for this particular downside and it is taking its time too long to descend or maybe it is just me wondering when is the next new low would be form. By looking at where we are right now, the Jan contract does break down from previous major support but manage to stay up so far, making this particular move a guessing game. Most of you may ask is this downside finished ? It is likely to be over if the Jan contract manage to breach above 2,150 level and follow by 2,180 level anytime this month. If it does that, we are likely moving into a ranging market condition that range within 2,100 ~2,223 area. More upside is possible if the upper range or major resistance above 2,223 level is breach. By that, most long term trader might want to consider taking Long positions as the market condition has changed. For today, the benchmark Jan contract is likely open slightly lower judging from lower Soy oil price compare to yesterday palm oil session closed at 6.00pm GMT. The Dec soy oil was traded at 31.71 cents per pound as the time of writing.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2145
R1=2138
S1=2118
S2=2105

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

FCPO: Recent Support Range Broken, Bears Are Mauling 16th Oct 2014

Thursday, 16th Oct 2014. Palm oil futures went down and this time, it mean new business to South. Other news to follow.

"- Interconnected worries over deflation, a potential rerun of the eurozone debt crisis and some surprisingly rotten U.S. economic data shocked investors on Wednesday, triggering a whipsaw session that saw stocks plunging only to trim losses before the final bell. It was panic mode in the early going and again in the afternoon. The DowDJIA, -1.06%  dropped by around 460 points and were on track for the biggest one-day percentage drop in three years before a late rebound. In the end, the index finished down 173.45 points, or 1.1%, at 16,141.74.The S&P 500 SPX, -0.81% temporarily erased its gain for the year but also trimmed losses by the end of the session. The small-cap Russell 2000 RUT, +1.02%  , which has been under heavy pressure this month, led the late rebound, finishing the day with a 1% gain.
The S&P 500 recorded a decline of more than 9% from its intraday peak reached on Sept. 19 to its trough on Wednesday."
"-Stocks in Asia were mostly higher Wednesday, with markets in Japan and Indonesia rebounding to lead the way as Chinese inflation data gave investors hope for fresh stimulus for the world’s second-largest economy. The Nikkei Stock Average NIK, -2.44%  finished up 1% at 15,073.52, while Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index JAKIDX, +0.82%  gained 0.8% to 4,962.94, and Australia’s S&P ASX 200 XJO, -1.14% gained 0.7% to 5,245.60. Investors appeared to hunt for bargains after the market suffered heavy losses earlier this week, fueled by worries over the pace of global economic growth and anticipated tightening of U.S. monetary policy. In Japan, the Nikkei rose from a two-month low and broke a five-session losing streak as investors bought exporters benefiting from dollar strength. The dollarUSDJPY, +0.08% traded at ¥107.21, versus ¥107.06 late Tuesday in New York."
"- Crude-oil inventories rose by 10.2 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 10, the American Petroleum Institute said late Wednesday, according to reports. Gasoline supplies declined by 3.1 million barrels, and inventories of distillates were down by 200,000 barrels. The API report comes a day ahead of more closely watched data from the Energy Information Administration due Thursday. Analysts polled by Platts expect the EIA to report a supply increase of 2.5 million barrels. Both reports were delayed by a day due to Monday's Columbus Day holiday. "


FCPO- The Game Is On, Negative Slope Trend Is Coming. 


Palm oil futures broke down below medium term major support level at around 2,136 level yesterday for the first time, signalling further retracement this month. The new benchmark Jan 2015 contract will take over the active month soon, but the rest of the story will remain the same. The current story for palm oil futures would be, retreating Bulls giving way to Bears. This round, Bears are likely acquired an edge by taking out the medium support level around 2,136 lately. And couple with double digit negative export figures plus recent lower Soy oil futures, this downward pressure is likely turn into a good old correction. On the technical side, we are expecting previous support level become resistance level around 2,136 level if the market open lower and continue to breach new low below 2,110 today. As always, there would not be a straight line retracement but rather a few recovery along the way of this short term correction. The benchmark Jan 2015 is looking to open slightly lower today judging on current Soy oil futures is hovering around 32.10~32.20 level, which is 0.30 cents lower compare to yesterday 6.00pm GMT. For today, pivot support is locating around 2,087 while resistance is pegged at 2,162.

P/s: Most analyst is blaming Soy oil and other commodities weakness on crude oil, they are related but not entirely correlated. We all know what happen to a trader when you trade with correlation.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2189
R1= 2162
S1= 2111
S2= 2087
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

FCPO: Sideways On The Way To Recovery 14th Oct 2014

Tuesday, 14th Oct 2014. Palm oil futures went down again since past few session consecutively amid weakness on Soy oil and recent news about negative export figures. Other news to follow.

"-The U.S. stock market ended Monday’s volatile session sharply lower as selling intensified at the last hour. Volatile trading came on the heels of last week’s deep losses that had been triggered by global economic growth concerns. Monday’s trading marked the fifth consecutive day of 1% moves for the S&P 500 and triple-digit moves for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Key technical levels were in focus, especially as there was no data on the economic calendar and bond markets were closed for Columbus Day holiday. The S&P 500 SPX, -1.65%  closed down 31.39 points, or 1.6%, to 1,874.74. The benchmark index has pulled back more than 6% from its peak reached on Sept. 18. All of the main benchmarks are trading below their 200-day moving averages. Falling below the 200-day moving average level, and in the case of the S&P 500, below the 1,900 level, is considered significant as many analysts see the breach as a sign of further declines. Vote here: Does this stock slump have further to go? The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.35%  dropped 223 points, or 1.3%, to 16,321.07. The blue-chip index turned negative for the year on Friday and is now down 1.5% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.46%  dropped 62.58 points, or 1.5%, to 4,213.66. The Russell 2000 RUT, -0.38%   gave up solid gains of early morning and closed down 4.3 points, or 0.4%, at 1,049.17."


"-Hong Kong stocks erased earlier losses and closed higher on Monday, as China’s trade data for September beat expectations. The Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.24%  opened lower on a negative U.S. lead from the end of last week, but ended the session higher by 0.2%."

"CPO Futures Higher on Strong Export Performance
Kuala Lumpur: Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed higher yesterday, thanks to September’s strong export performance. According to Cargo Surveyor Intertek Testing Services, exports of Malaysian palm oil products during the month rose by 16.3 per cent from a month earlier to 1.5 million tonnes. Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd derivative product specialist, David Ng, said India was aggressively purchasing palm oil and the current price was deemed attractive to restock ahead of key festivals like Deepavali. At the close, October 2014 added RM27 to RM2,232 a tonne, and January 2015 increased RM23 to RM2,233 a tonne. November 2014 and December 2014 decreased by RM32 and RM25 to RM2,227 a tonne and RM2,217 a tonne, respectively. Volume advanced to 43,225 lots from 26,489 lots recorded on Monday while open interest increased to 305,698 contracts from 286,208 contracts on Monday. On the physical market, October South was up RM20 at RM2,240 a tonne. Bernama"


FCPO- Sideways In Play 

Palm oil futures is testing previous session day high and low or what it is call as 35 points to 80 points sideways market. Most of the trend trader or medium term trader might find it impossible to maneuver this condition, not because they are not capable of but because of their trend following system does not allow it. Imagine Buying at the day high and price dip about 30 points to 50 points the next session or vice versa are common situation every trend trader face currently. Despite how the market behave, we need to keep trusting and trade within the scope of our trading system or trading plan. Every trading system has it strength and weakness, and it need time to work. These are the major range we are talking about, 2,224 ~ 2,137 area. The benchmark Dec has to breach above or below these range in order to break out from current ranging market. Even if these range is taken out, the benchmark Dec might not head straight along with the break out movement, instead price might linger around the break out area for few sessions until everything settle down and start moving again. Traders patient and time will be tested the most coming to the end of four quarter. On external side, palm oil export for the first 10th Oct vs Sept was down about 18%, bad news coming back so soon.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2209
R1= 2187
S1= 2147
S2= 2129
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

FCPO: Lets Give Bulls Chance To Dance 25th Sept 2014

Thursday, 25th Sept 2014. Palm oil futures manage to recover promisingly starting last Tuesday amid positive progress made on Soy oil and improved palm oil export numbers also help. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks rallied on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average recording their best one-day percentage gain in more than 5 weeks. The rebound snapped a 3-day losing streak that has been blamed in part on worries about global growth and fighting in Iraq and Syria. A stronger-than-expected report on new-home sales and dovish comments from two Federal Reserve officials, may have contributed to gains. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.78%  gained 15.63 points, or 0.9%, to 1,998.38. Broad-based gains were led by health care and consumer staples sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.90%  gained 155.02 points, or 0.9%, to 17,210.89, recovering some of the steep losses from the previous two sessions. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.03%  added 46.53 points, or 1.03%, to 4,555.22, while the small-cap Russell 2000 RUT, +0.86%   — which has lagged behind the other indexes this month and this year — gained 8.9 points, or 0.8%, to 1,127.60.

"-Here are the closi levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) down 0.2% ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) up 0.4% ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) up 1.5% ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) down 0.7% ; Seoul (Kospi) up 0.3% Taipei (Taiex) up 0.2%."

"-Crude-oil futures rose Wednesday after weekly inventories data showed an unexpected decline in supplies. Light, sweet crude futures for November delivery CLX4, -0.03%  rose $1.24, or 1.4%, to settle at $92.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. November Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange LCOX4, -0.04%  rose 10 cents, or 0.1%, to end at $96.95 a barrel."


FCPO- We Might Looking At The Beginning Of Short Term To Long Term Recovery.

Now I might sound optimistic but that is how a healthy uptrend is made. An good prolong uptrend is always tested before it can begin running its way to higher ground. That mean, series of retracement and recovery right thereafter. If you put it in technical terms, the hourly chart or daily chart if you are looking at higher time frame must create series of higher lows first, then higher highs for further confirmation. A few successive higher lows and higher highs signifies consistent involvement of Bulls. Bulls are significantly aggressive if there is a new higher highs, forcing most Bears out of business. On contrary, I may sound pessimistic about palm oil outlook starting this week due to very strong signs that Bears would take control after looking three consecutive Bearish candle on daily chart. But that is necessary because we need to be clear about what the price and candle are telling us, thus trade on what you see, not what you think is best practice to be profitable in the market. Staying clear of what you are not sure such as news, fundamental data or advise of others might avoid you to make costly mistake on your trading equity. Staying control is crucial to this business, which means fully took charge of your positions and emotion in check. For this week, we are likely looking at a new higher high formed if the December contract manage to breached above 2,173 level and staying above that level for the closing would be the best sign to tell you that market is heading North for longer time frame.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2179
R1=2167
S1=2133
S2=2111
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

FCPO: Down We Go, Again 23rd Sept 2014

Tuesday, 23rd Sept 2014. The palm oil futures closed lower yesterday amid weakness on Soy oil since last Thursday as both the edible oil recovery are slowing down.

"-U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 falling by its largest margin in nearly seven weeksInvestors turned skittish as they fretted about falling commodity prices and concerns about global growth. A decline in economic activity in August, measured by Chicago Federal Reserve as well as a drop in existing-home sales contributed to the dour Wall Street mood. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.80%  closed 16.11 points, or 0.8%, lower at 1,994.29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.62%  dropped 107.06 points, or 0.6%, to 17,172.68. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.14%  fell 52.10 points, or 1.1%, to 4,527.69."


"- Hong Kong stocks fell on Monday to the lowest closing level in about two months, amid growing concerns about China’s economy after comments from the finance minister suggested no major stimulus measures would be announced despite a slowdown. The Hang Seng Index HSI, -1.44%  declined 1.4% to 23,955.49, its lowest close since late July. Finance Minister Lou Jiwei over the weekend said at a G-20 meeting that Chinese economy is facing downward pressure. But the nation won’t “make major policy adjustments” due to changes in any individual economic indicator, according to a statement on the website of the People’s Bank of China. Over on the Chinese mainland, Shanghai markets closed significantly lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -1.70%  down 1.7%. Other major markets in Asia were also weaker. In Japan, the Nikkei AverageNIK, -0.71%  ended down 0.7%, while the broader Topix index I0000, +0.00% inched 0.1% lower. The yen USDJPY, -0.17%  slightly weakened to ¥109.079 against the dollar, compared with ¥109.047 in the previous session. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.15%  gave up 1.3%, while in South Korea, the Kospi Composite Index SEU, -0.62%  pulled back 0.7%."

FCPO- Tough Ride Ahead. 


Palm oil futures for December contract is retracing down for the moment amid weak respond from Soy oil recently. Current upside is likely pause due to recent candle formation, and it does not look good for long term recovery. But before I go into foretelling the outlook of palm oil futures, lets take a look at the fundamental side of it. The good news was, Malaysia palm oil export is increasing to double digit growth, cargo surveyor ITS reported there was 21.2% increase palm oil export for the month of 1-20th Sept vs Aug. The export news was indeed a welcome sight, but it need to continue recording steady growth in order to reduce stocks level, that is where the real effect is going to take place. With the possibility of palm oil stocks decreasing with steady demand, we can then dream of further price recovery. For the moment, let just not hope that market would stay sideways within 2,050~2,150 for too long and too frequent. The real deal, there was two significant warning on the daily chart before the market dip down to 2,064 level yesterday. The first sign was the formation of shooting star when the price closed lower on previous Thursday after hitting new high in the morning session, about 2,172 level before closing at day low at 2,138 level. The second Bearish sign came again when December contract closed lower on the next day, it was a red candle on the afternoon session down to 2,109 level. And yesterday, the December contract declined to 2,064 on morning session but manage to closed at day high at 2,090 level. Event though the December mange to recover at the end of session, we would not expecting it to recover from this point due to new weakness on Soy oil, it was traded slightly below 32 cents per pound as the time of writing. Overall, long term perspective remain Bearish at the moment, while we might be looking at some potential for the market to recover on export news on short term, this recover might serve as chances for the Bears to join the Shorting charade. For today, pivot support is located around 2,053 while resistance is pegged at 2,100.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2111
R1= 2100
S1= 2071
S2= 2053
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

FCPO: Time To Get Up, For The Time Being 18th Sept 2014

Thursday, 18th Sept 2014. Palm oil futures is building positive momentum this week amid some cheerful news on export and promising recovery on Soy oil. Other news to follow.


"The U.S. stock market closed slightly higher Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a record high. The main benchmarks swung higher after the Fed meeting and Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s news conference but trimmed gains by the end of the session. In the end, the Federal Reserve stuck to its view that it will keep short-term interest rates near zero for a “considerable time” after the central bank ends large-scale purchases of bonds meant to stimulate the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.13%  rose 2.59 points, or 0.1 to 2.001.57. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.15%  added 24.88 points, or 0.2% to 17,156.85. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.21%  gained 9.43 points, or 0.2%, to 4,562.19."
"-Hong Kong stocks bounced back Wednesday, breaking an eight-day losing streak, after China’s central bank reportedly pumped tens of billions of dollars into the banking system to spur economic growth in China amid a worse-than-expected slowdown. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, +1.00%  rebounded 1%, recouping some losses after having registered a roughly 4.7% loss over the eight previous sessions."
"-U.S. oil inventories rose 3.7 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 12, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. That contrasted with expectations of a decline by 400,000 barrels, according to analysts polled by Platts. Gasoline supplies were down 1.6 million barrels, while distillates supplies rose 300,000 barrels, the EIA said. Gasoline stocks were seen down 300,000 barrels, and distillate stocks were expected to end the week unchanged. Oil for October delivery CLV4, -0.49% was recently trading at $93.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, from around $94.24 a barrel as the report was released."

FCPO- Still Have A Lot Of Work To Do.


The Bulls might won some battle this week when the price was able to stay above 2,100 but long term still suggest this rally would not outlast Bears. We are likely to expect palm oil futures to recovery further with 2,200 psychological resistance in mind. Part of the these rally were strengthen by Soy oil recovery above 33.00 cents per pound so far and palm oil 1-15th Sept vs Aug 2014 export also saw a significant recovery, export was up about 40%. Unfortunately, the hard truth was export need to stay positive substantially so that it can gradually reduce record high stocks level, which turn out no so soon. On technical side, there were obvious formation of higher highs and higher lows, and other few good signs for impending price recovery for the Sept month. The next untold answer would be where does this rally would end, frankly no one know "for sure." It is not a duty for a trader to "know" where does this or that rally end, but it is every traders job and duty to due diligently carry out their trades based on the plan or system layout. Risk management plays a big chunk whether the trades would make it or otherwise, imagine if a certain trader could manage his positions well based on his risk system. For today, the new benchmark Dec is likely open higher amid higher closing value on Soy oil futures. Pivot support for Dec is located around 2,112 while resistance is pegged at 2,177.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2177
R1= 2158
S1= 2112
S2= 2085
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

FCPO: We Are Yet Out Of The Woods 11th Sept 2014

Thursday, 11th Sept 2014. Palm oil futures manage to close at the day high yesterday but the real concern was would it able to rally even though stocks are at multi-year high ? Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks rose Wednesday, bouncing back from morning losses, as Apple Inc. and other tech stocks helped lead the way higher. Traders said while there was no single explanation for the turnaround, the market got a lift from Apple’s 3.1% jump and a new poll showing a majority of Scots favor remaining in the U.K. Investors have worried about Scotland potentially becoming independent after a poll over the weekend put those favoring independence ahead for the first time. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.36%   rose 7.25 points, or 0.4%, to close at 1,995.69, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.32%  added 54.84 points, or 0.3%, to 17,068.71. Both indexes snapped two-day skids, but remain down for the week. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.75%  gained 34.24 points, or 0.8%, to finish at 4,586.52. The tech-heavy index is up 0.1% for the week.

"-Hong Kong (MarketWatch) -- Here are the closing levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) up 0.3% ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) down 1.9% ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) down 0.4% ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) down 0.6% ; Taipei (Taiex) down 0.8%."

"-U.S. crude-oil supplies declined by 1 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 5, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. That met expectations of analysts polled by Platts, and numbers released late Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute, a trade group. The EIA also reported gasoline stockpiles were up 2.4 million, and distillates inventories rose 4.1 million barrels. The analysts surveyed by Platts had expected gasoline stocks unchanged and distillate stocks up 400,000 barrels. The report did little to support crude-oil futures trading in New York, however, weighed down by a strong dollar and ongoing concerns of plentiful worldwide supplies. Crude for October delivery CLV4, +0.10% was recently down 1.2% at $91.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.




FCPO- Data Suggest We Are Still In Bearish Mode

The main headlines for today, "we are yet out of the woods" sounds familiar as I have use this tittle few weeks ago. What the tittle meant was palm oil futures is still running on Bearish steam despite its promising attempt to rally passed certain major resistance level. The market did went passed above weekly resistance level around 2,053 but that rally was short lived when Nov price came crushing down right after it hit 2,068 last Monday. Ironic but that is the fact, the market is yet ready to turn current Bearish trend to Bullish. The Bulls do not want to commit anything that is too high, perhaps 2,068 and above was too high for them to kept Buying. Or maybe these guys know (on last Monday) that the output and stocks level will be announce at record high on yesterday. Even so, it is not a traders job to put much concern about what others might know more than you did. A traders jobs were to apply the knowledge into the trade and follow their plan layout before them or in another words due diligently manage the trade / positions according to the plan. That, is what a good trader is, consistently following his plan trades after trades, giving no attention to news, other says and other element that would influence a trader decision. All that matter would be the price because price is the ultimate indicator that would show where the market is heading next. Back to the palm oil futures outlook, we might not expecting any strong upside above 2,050 for this week as palm oil stocks rose 22% to 2.05 million tons, the highest since October 2009. This news alone would not be a good news for majority of Buyers out there. Fortunately, independent cargo surveyor ITS reported that Malaysia palm oil export for 1-10th Sept vs Oct rose about 41%, a joyful news that have pushed the price to close at day high yesterday. If this rising percentage on export can sustain, we can expect more rallies next week. For today, sideways market action is expected around 2,050 ~ 2,000 level.  

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2059
R1= 2045
S1= 2007
S2= 1983
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

FCPO: Challenging Path Ahead Of This Recovery 9th Sept 2014

Tuesday, 9th Sept 2014. Palm oil recovery has taken its toll by less aggressive Buyers so far, retracing most of the after hitting new high. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks ended lower on Monday as investors turned cautious after five straight weeks of gains that sent the main benchmarks to record highs. A few M&A deals were grabbing attention Monday. On the economic news front, data showed consumer credit rose a record amount in July. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.31%  lost 6.2 points, or 0.3%, to end at 2001.54, with the energy sector leading the losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% dropped 25.9 points, or 0.2%, to 17,111.42. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.20% defied the general trend and finished the session 9.4 points, or 0.2%, higher at 4,592.29."

"-Hong Kong stocks on Monday edged lower, as China’s imports for August fell unexpectedly, while exports slightly exceeded expectations. Official data showed Monday that China’s imports dropped by 2.4% on-year last month, against an estimated 2.7% rise from a poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal. Meanwhile, exports grew 9.4% year-over-over, above a forecast 9.2% increase by the economists. The Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.20%  ended down 0.2%, with its top components — HSBC Holdings PLC 0005, -0.78% and Tencent Holdings Ltd. 0700, -1.71% — as a drag. HSBC was off 0.8%, and Tencent declined 1.6%. In Japan, the Nikkei Average NIK, +0.46%  edged up 0.2%, while the yenUSDJPY, +0.01%  slightly dropped versus the dollar to ¥105.134 from ¥105.100 in the previous session. The broader Topix index I0000, +0.36%  rose 0.4%. In other Asian markets, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, +0.16%  fell 0.4%, with the Australian dollar AUDUSD, -0.05%  a little weaker at 93.56 U.S. cents, down from 93.78 U.S. cents in the prior session."


"- Gold prices rolled over to close lower Monday giving up earlier gains as headline risk from global conflicts eased. Gold for December delivery GCZ4, +0.32%  closed at $1,254.30 an ounce, down 1% from $1,267.30 on Friday. December silver SIZ4, +0.71%  fell 20 cents, or 1%, to settle at $18.96 an ounce."
"-CPO Futures end Higher
KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed higher yesterday with a firm bias due to the weakening of the ringgit against the US dollar. Both February 2014 and March 2014 was RM29 higher at RM2,586 and RM2,594 a tonne, respectively, April 2014, May 2014 and June 2014 edged up RM27 to RM2,602, RM2,602 and RM2,600 a tonne, respectively, while July 2014 added RM26 to RM2,591.  Turnover dwindled to 24,668 lots from Wednesday's 32,845 lots while open interest advanced to 192,541 contracts from 190,944 contracts. On the physical market, February South increased RM30 to RM2,590 a tonne."

FCPO- No Smooth Sailing To The North


No such thing as easy uptrend or smooth uptrend, the Bulls always faced tough time after it got beaten by Bears for the past three months. Bulls need more than good news to regain their confidence to charge north. For the moment, palm oil futures rallies is not impressive at all. Futures prices manage to recover and breach important resistance level around 2,052 but did not finish well since past Friday. All we can see here, the Bulls are still hesitate to commit Buying at higher level. Once Buyers reach certain high, they will dump or take their profit out of the market. With most traders are staying low and staying cautious on this pending rally, we should too. On the technical side, the benchmark Nov have breached above two important resistance level, which is previous Thursday high around 2,034 and one-week high at 2,052. Unfortunately, market is not convince that breaching these two resistance levels are sufficient enough to bring back more Bulls, and futures prices quickly erase these gain later on the afternoon session. The road to recovery is tough for the moment as Nov need to went up above 2,070 for the next rally to sustain, but this feat is not expected for the time being. On the external side, palm oil fundamental remain weak, export were still negative, stock and productions are still climbing, and we still looking at favorable weather for palm oil trees. Not good at all but these are the information we have, final judgement rest on you, or the trader themselves.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2086
R1= 2064
S1= 2023
S2= 2004

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.