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Monday, October 5, 2015

FCPO: Calm Before The Storm

FCPO: Looked At How Far We Have Arrived

Palm oil futures had it most outrageous move ever since two years ago. The benchmark month is making serious range day after day starting at the mid of third quarter and now it might be showing some sign of slowing down, maybe. The benchmark month significant rally from 1863 level was an astonishing achievement for those who did not believe market can take form of any formation. No one can tell when is the market is going to peak nor whether it is recovering from a bottom, no one. One things that remain constant was, news will be Bearish when the price headed down for some time, and news will be very Bullish when the price has moved or recovered more than it should. The point is, there is always a lag between news and price. Very smart traders will use news to manage their positions. Well, mostly these types of traders do have strong opinion and we know what happen for those who have opinion and plan to stick with it. Deep pocket was part of the pre-requisite to have any opinion, ego and strong language came after that. I have high respect and jealous for those who have opinion in the market and their ability to withstand pain when the price goes against them. Back to the market outlook, there are some hesitation on the recent high after the Dec contract retrace slightly for some profit taking. It seems that the price is forming small triangular shape at current price. It is a concentrated price range waiting to be burst out. Judging from historical price action, two or more session that ended with hesitation at current high is likely mean the Bulls are likely giving up but there is also a fair chance that the Bears are not gaining any advantage over the Bulls either. In another words, it is likely that this hesitation will continue to extend its sideways price action unless the price break off new previous high or major support.

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Monday, August 24, 2015

24 August 2015: FCPO Its Heading Down Lower

Monday, 24 August 2015. Every morning I wake up with some hope in my mind that the downfall of Malaysia stock index and commodities futures are just another nightmare. It is not going to end anytime soon, and it is a nightmare that would not go away.

FCPO- The Start Of 16 Years Plunge, Slowly. 

Yes, you read it correctly, palm oil futures is trading at the low of 1,958 last week and that would be 16 years low. The good all days of Ringgit supporting the commodities market when it weaken did not happen anymore. Where does the bargain hunters went all these days ? 16 years low and no sign of palm oil futures price recovery after seven weeks already. Palm oil is just heading lower and lower since 9th June 2015, it is heading to South ever since then. Now the interesting part is here to come, there was no support or whatsoever when the benchmark Nov hit below 2,000 level. There should be in the name of the main stream technical analysis studies written by John J' Murphy or any popular technical analysis book, but unfortunately there is no such thing as strong or sure support at that level. Maybe I am looking at the wrong pointers, maybe it is not technical analysis that is pushing the price down, perhaps it is something else. Looking at different perspective, Indonesia palm oil production has surpassed Malaysia for years and there is no surprise more and more major palm oil consumption country will turn to Indonesia first for their supplies. Putting quality of oil aside, Indonesia palm oil is cheaper, easily available and abundant enough to supply for the whole world. If some of you still wondering why Malaysia palm oil demand remain low and stockpiles is on uptrend, most of the major consumption country need to finish their stocks from Indonesia before Buying from us again. That might explain why Malaysia palm oil stockpiles kept on gaining momentum month after months this year. Fortunately, even with the fall of Ringgit value approaching 1997/98 financial crisis, Malaysia might manage to survive from this pre-crisis as it has adequate foreign currency reserve, minus the casualty of unemployment and social unrest. With all things said, the worst economical effect would be witnessing the property market come tumble down, I hope that day would not materialize.

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

FCPO: 4 August 2015 FCPO Made New Monthly Low

FCPO- Its A New LOW, And Its Not Over Yet.

Palm oil futures dropped to new monthly low yesterday, marking a stronger than expected Bearish momentum. This massive Sell-off might due to panic Long covering by those bargain hunters that thought it will be a good idea to Buy anything at low price. Yesterday, bargain hunters paid the price as FCPO Oct continue to go down, hitting low at 2049. That was 60 points Sell-off in a single day, the market is telling you something and I do not think it is telling you to Buy. But who cares, that is how market moved, none of the traders think the same, everyone has their own mind, worse their own opinion. It is a progress for the FCPO to went down yesterday, it is good for those trend hunters because this might mean a good sign for a down trend as benchmark month has break down below the previous major range period. No one knows where does this new break down will take us, a prolong down trend perhaps. I do hope so it would give us another one or two hundreds points down from here. The points here is, market can go lower than where it stop yesterday.

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, July 23, 2015

23th July 2015 Wake Me Up, When Sept Come

Thursday, 23th July 2015. The year 2015 might the worse range trading in the century for palm oil futures, maybe that just me but take a look at it !!! After ten months it is still within the box.

FCPO- Yes, Wake Me Up In Sept

That is how I look at it right now, palm oil futures is not doing what it does best, trending. I hear, no I tested that this market, the FCPO, is a trending market, hey what does other commodity market that does not trend. Every commodity market tends to trend in the long term. But maybe for this particular time, palm oil futures is not part of it, yet. I want to rant more than anyone else, but I think I would rather tell why it does not trend or it just moving within a big range. But then again, I want to relate about all the reason behind "why it does not trend for palm oil futures" but would it matter ? Look the market does not trend well this year and it is hurting the trend trader in a big way. But a true trend trader always have other commodities market to focus on, they probably have about 5 other market to target their fund. Unfortunately for those other trend trader that just focus on one market, palm oil futures particularly, you might have to wait longer. I can think of a few list why the palm oil futures does not trend from the economical changing environment in China, Europe and U.S but you cannot be sure which one of those list is related. Whether any particular market trends or not, it does not have to provide you any reason at all. It just simply stop trending for a while, no reason at all. The point is, palm oil futures is likely staying within the cage for quite some time before it would show any sign of long term trending.
P/s: Maybe it will breach monthly high again and again after this write up.

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Selamat Hari Raya

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Selamat Hari Raya kepada semua, Maaf zahir & batin. Berhati-hati di jalan raya ketika memandu. 

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

FCPO Write Up Via Email Subscriber

This is what I'm working on all these while, you can get this email daily delivered to your inbox !!

MPOB Says  Palm oil output in Malaysia, rose 13% to 1.69m metric tons in April from month earlier. 
Stockpiles climbed 18% to 2.19m tons, while exports dropped 0.6% to 1.18m tons.


Long Term Positions updated: 13th May 2015
Inline image 1

Trade 375 is doing fine, for now, I hope FCPO July would charge ahead non stop but unfortunately we are likely to see some retracement today. Reason due, Soy oil was traded 1.2% lower overnight, the last recorded price was 32.96 cents per pound. We are likely to see at least 10 points lower opening for July contract. Overall on short term, palm oil futures is still Bearish, but things might change if the July contract retrace back below 2,140 level again. Bear in mind, stockpiles and output are still rising for the month of May vs Apr. Range for today likely, 2,220~2,180. 

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, April 9, 2015

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Tuesday, April 7, 2015

FCPO: Some Gas To Rally 7th April 2015

Tuesday, 7th April 2015. Palm oil futures manage to break above 2,220 level yesterday, it was the first attempt and Bulls done it. Other news to follow.

"U.S. stocks erased early losses to finish with solid gains Monday, as the Dow industrials rose nearly 120 points. The stock market’s switch to rally mode was attributed to bets that the Federal Reserve will move more slowly in raising interest rates given Friday’s disappointing jobs report. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.66% rose 13.66 points, or 0.7%, to end at 2,080.62, with energy stocks XLE, -0.04%  performing best as crude-oil prices jumped. The benchmark is up 1.1% for the year and stands 1.7% off its March 2 record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.66% gained 117.61 points, or 0.7%, to close at 17,880.85 after dropping more than 100 points out of the gate. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.62% added 30.38 points, or 0.6%, to finish at 4,917.32."

"Oil prices surged to their biggest gain in nearly two months, buoyed by signs of rising demand in the U.S. and Asia. Data provider Genscape Inc. reported that supplies in Cushing, Okla.—a key storage hub and the delivery point for the benchmark U.S. futures contract—fell by nearly 300,000 barrels between March 31 and April 3, according to a broker. Cushing supplies are at a record, and this is first time those stocks have seen a drawdown in Genscape data since early December, the broker said. The data added to momentum for bulls who have been betting rising demand and other factors would reverse a monthslong decline in oil prices. Markets had already been primed for a rally from news over the long weekend that saw Saudi Arabia raise its official crude oil selling price for Asian buyers and the dollar edging lower in value, both boosting hopes of increasing international demand for oil. Light, sweet crude for May delivery CLK5, -0.82%  settled up $3.00, or 6.1%, to $52.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the U.S. benchmark’s biggest day of gains since Feb. 3 and its highest settlement since Feb. 17."

"- Vegoils Market Factors to Watch Monday April 6 

KUALA LUMPUR: The following factors are likely to influence Malaysian palm oil futures and other vegetable oil markets on Monday April 6.

* Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Friday, ending a second week of gains, but volumes were thin as Easter holidays in some countries sapped interest in markets.
* U.S. wheat futures jumped to their highest level in six weeks on Thursday on worries that rains in the U.S. Plains next week will be insufficient to relieve intensifying drought conditions.
* Brent oil fell nearly 4 percent on Thursday after a preliminary pact between Iran and global powers on Tehran's nuclear program, even as officials set further talks in June and analysts questioned when the OPEC member will be allowed to export more crude. 
* Asian shares rose and the dollar dropped on Monday, after a dismal U.S. jobs report pushed up U.S. Treasury yields as investors pared bets the U.S. Federal Reserve would hike interest rates anytime soon."

FCPO- Rally, Rally, Rally

Bulls get an aggressive start yesterday when the June contract open gap up, easily break above 2,200 for opening session. The rest of the rallied took place on afternoon session when the June contract rallied above 2,220, signifying strong Bullish momentum. Unfortunately, most of the intraday Buyers decide to take profit and force June contract to settle at 2,230 after rallying to 2,250 level. If you are asking whether short term outlook has changed from sideways to Bullish, the answer will be definite YES. There is catch tho, you must Long right after the opening bell starts, because if you get in later, there is no point to tell market has become Bullish as you are not in it. It is an Bullish statement from Bulls, no doubt about that. The curve of yesterday rally was parabolic in shape, the Bulls never look back, not even once all the way to 2,250. The next question would be, whether this rally can sustain all the way to 2,300 ? My initial expectation would be, it would not be an easy task to rally up to 2,300 this week. There would pull back, small rally, then retracement, above all you must know whether your trading horizon / time frame. How much risk is too much for your take profit target. How much percentage of capital you are willing to risk for x amount of profit. It has to be slightly off balance between these two elements, ideally it was taking profit point should be higher than risk %, especially when you are trading on longer term time frame such as 30 minutes and so on. We shall see whether the increase in previous month does matter to help price from recovery this week.

Daily Pivot Point

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Friday, March 20, 2015

FPCO: Swift Come Back For Bulls 18th March 2015

Thursday, 18th March 2015.  Palm oil futures for Jun contract went up substantially after hitting 2,128 level, Soy oil did provide some assistance by recovering on the Asia trading session. Other news to follow.

FCPO- It Would Not Be A Straight Line Recovery Nor Down Trend

Every time the market moved substantially, it will caught most traders off guard, always. You can see it when the market move substantially, it kept on heading to the same direction with force behind and most traders who does not re-act will be caught off guard. And when these traders realized it has to bite the bullets and exit, it will be a painful losses to bear. This is what happen every time the market move, it does not matter where does it move, move up or down, sideways, it doesn.t matter at all. The point is, price will sometime kept on breaking the support and resistance because there are alway traders getting caught off guard, those traders have to force exit their positions to stop from bleeding. There is always some poor bastard caught off guard when the market moved, and they can give you even the most ridiculous reason why they cannot re-act. Back to market outlook, FCPO Jun no doubt manage to recover most of its this week losses. And the Bulls did it with style, the Jun contract went up about a whopping 2.48% higher to settle at 2,193 level yesterday. There is no deny, Bulls were present yesterday starting from the beginning of afternoon session. What lies next might be the first immediate resistance level around 2,220, and if this level is taken out, short term outlook may return to sideways. Currently the Bears are still holding the trump cards for the moment, but all this can change if the price kept on recover above 2,220 level this or early next week. However, there are a few short term concern that might curb this recovery, steady slow down on palm oil export, soy oil and crude oil were generally still on Bearish trend in both short term and long term. For today, support for the Jun contract is located around 2,149 while ressitance is pegged at 2,237

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2237
R1= 2215
S1= 2149
S2= 2105
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

FCPO: Palm Oil Retrace From 2,400 5th March 2015

Thursday, 5th March 2015. Palm oil futures dive down after hitting 2,400 for the benchmark month, maybe the ship has sailed too close to the shore and hit some rocks. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks declined for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, sending the S&P 500 to the lowest level in two weeks. Investors remained cautious ahead of the closely watched official jobs report, due on Friday, amid mixed economic data this week. Private-sector employment data on Wednesday showed continued gains in February but at a slower pace than in the prior month. Meanwhile, a gauge of activity in the services sector edged up last month. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.44% closed 9.24 points, or 0.4%, lower at 2,098.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.58% dropped 106.41 points, or 0.6%, to 18,096.96. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.26% ended the day down 12.76 points, or 0.3%, at 4,967.14."

"-Hong Kong stocks extended losses Wednesday, as markets cautiously wait for China to reveal its major economic programs and targets for the year.
The Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.96%  closed 1% lower, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises HSCEI, -1.73%  , which tracks Hong Kong-listed mainland Chinese companies, was down 1.7%."

"-Oil futures settled higher on Wednesday even though the U.S. government reported a much bigger-than-expected increase in weekly crude supplies. Analysts said prices likely found support on the heels of Saudi Arabia's decision to raise prices for its Arab Light crude and comments from the country's oil minister - both of which implied growing demand for oil. April crude CLJ5, +0.19% rose $1.01, or 2%, to settle at $51.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange."

FCPO- Impending Correction

2,400 was a panic button for most traders previously, it is where the implementation of export tax if the price went above this level. Even tho the government has decide to extend the zero cost export tax, most traders still think 2,400 was too hard to penetrate. You all saw it yesterday when the benchmark month just touch 2,400 level and boooom, start retracing from that level. To make matter worse, price went haywire from 2,382 level and below, jumping down to 15 points lower straight. Few lots were done between that, but most stops were done at 2,365 level. Yes, it is a vicious vacuum, things happen all the time, you can blame it to the market depth, no Buyers standing by or anything you can come up, it is pointless anyway as things already happen. The best action would be charting the next steps you need to take. As a trader, one must be prepare for anything, market vacuum is one of it. Back to the outlook, yesterday significant correction may signifies first sign of weakness. It may not look much on daily chart but when you zoom into intraday chart, it become clearer that there is huge rejection from 2,400 and the May contract does ended around the low of the day. To make things worse, Soy oil dipped to 32.28 cents as the time of writing compare to 32.85 cents on yesterday 6.00PM. Now there are news that pointing at lower production cycle for this year and this event may eventually reduce stockpiles but that news is too subjective for me to make any decision of any form in the market. Yes, dumb the news please, it got nothing to do with me, at least. For today, pivot support for the May contract is located around 2,327 while resistance is pegged at 2,373.

Daily Pivot Point
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.