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Tuesday, July 26, 2016

FCPO 22th July 2016





Palm oil futures for Oct contract shows the first sign of pause upside on previous Friday. The Oct price was trying to regain positive momentum in the morning session but most of the Selling pressure is just too overwhelm when the market resume on afternoon session. At close the Oct was traded at least 1.5% lower plus price close at the low of the day, this mark Sellers were more dominant at the end of session. The other pointer that force the market into negative territory would be the inability for the price to float above 2,329 level after it resume after lunch break, that was the immediate support I mentioned on previous Thursday if anything should goes wrong from here. With Oct contract recent weak closing, we might be looking at the fist sign of further weakness or we can call it a retracement curve. I said  curve because it still an early indication, remember that market does not move in a straight line, every recovery will have its retracement and vice versa for a downtrend. Nonetheless, we will have higher likelihood for the FCPO price to retrace further if it end lower for today session. To re-iterate, there is not much changes on the fundamental side, the only positive development will be marginal increase in export numbers, that it. Current weather is still conducive for palm oil production to continue to thrive. With all said and done, previous week upside momentum is likely to survive if the Oct contract does not drop below 2,300 area. And if it does, we are going to have a nasty retracement all the way to 2,256 level, maybe not in a straight line but probably a slow descend. I am still Bearish on the longer term perspective due to consistent active production season for the past two months when the price start Selling-off. But now, we have to be prepare whether the Bulls are giving up the fight or it is just a mild retracement for the time being. For today, palm oil futures for Oct contract is likely open lower on soy oil recent weakness. The soy oil for Sept contract was traded down about 0.28 cents lower to 30.44 cents this morning. The range for Oct contract is likely moving within 2,170~2,220.

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

FCPO Outlook 15th July 2016




Palm oil futures managed to recover on last Friday amid some slight rally on soy oil. The soy oil for Aug contract was traded slightly lower about 0.07 cents to 30.76 cents this morning. The active production, stockpiles climbed plus export dwindling concern on palm oil futures are still the main reason why market dropped substantially for the 8 weeks straight. But now, the price action on new benchmark Oct is suggesting a short term recovery. The Bullish candle that pierce above immediate resistance at 2,280. What concern me is the inability for the benchmark month to maintain its gain above 2,280 level. On previous Friday, the Sept contract settled at 2,279 level. Nonetheless, the first sign of recovery as mentioned above the chart is valid, there is a strong Buying interest on last Friday that lead us to believe that palm oil futures is likely to made its way upwards. This is also known as a recovery curve, and if you recall a recovery curve is an average probability for the market to recover substantially after a market has been sold-off for some time. With all that said and done, do not get your hopes high because any recovery curve can fail easily when there is a Bearish news emerge. In order to qualify for sustainable recovery, the first resistance for the Oct contract to overcome would be 2,320 level. If that did not happen, we are likely moving back into a ranging market with 2,185 will serve as support level for the time being. Apart from marginal rise in export number for 1-15th July vs June reported by SGS and slight reduction in export tax, stockpiles and production are still on the upside. For today, range for Oct contract is likely 2,240 ~ 2,280.

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Seasons Greeting from Malaysiafutures.com




Selamat Hari Raya & Aidilfitri. Drive carefully and be safe on your journey home.

Thursday, June 30, 2016

30 June 2016 FCPO Email Commentary Sample


FCPO 29 June 2016 Daily Chart
Traders can make any mistake at any given time, but it is the repeatable mistake that taking toll out of your equity. Imagine that you have enough psychic power to not let the same mistake happen because in the past you have learnt your lesson, would you be a better trader ? Eventually that is all it takes to be better, just do not let the same mistake happen again. Palm oil futures made a new three months low yesterday with the Sept breaking major Support at 2,350 level and Selling all the way down to 2,316 level. Market ended at the day low at 2,317 for Sept contract. The price did not even bother to recover after breaking the 2,350 Support level, it just tumble all the way down. I made some wrong expectation on how the Sept contract should re-act when it break below the Support level, it seems the Bears are still dominant after that major Support shattered. Palm oil futures have been Selling off continuously since three months ago even though Ringgit were very weak few weeks ago, there was no noticeable recovery on that particular time. For today, the Sept contract is likely going down for another round judging on weaker soy oil price. The soy oil price for Aug was traded 0.14 cents down to 30.99 cents this morning. It is very dangerous to any traders if he/she would not believe that market can go down consecutively for substantial numbers of days and extremely oversold in any time frame, taking any counter trend position such as going Long in a falling market just because it is cheap is a fatal mistake. Futures market do not have any limitation on how it should fall, if it is falling, it will be far cheaper for the few days. Instead of spending your ammunition and trying to Buy at the low, why not wait for some sign of promising recovery, then going Long from there, the odds would be that bad at all. Of course you would not getting to Buy at the low, but how many of us can Buy anything when the price is the lowest ? With most of the variables remain constant, the Sept contract range for today is likely moving within 2,280 ~ 2,330 level.  


Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, April 21, 2016

The Big Picture 21 Apr 2016

FCPO Overall Outlook 21 Apr 2016



Talking about bigger picture, here is how the FCPO daily looks like after it has "break out" from the base or from the curve. The price does gap up along with soy oil rally yesterday but stop and retrace on the afternoon session. It is not a straight line rally as you see, half of the gain was wiped out in the afternoon session yesterday. It is even worse to catch any good trade on intraday setup because price on move in 5 to 15 points range and most of the immediate low does not go down all the way, it rebounded and took my stop loss, at least for my case. Back to market outlook, palm oil futures is likely open unchaged today judging from soy oil lack of price movement this morning. The Soy oil for May contract was traded 0.05 cents lower to 34.70 cents as the time of writing. We should see a little weak opening for July contract if the May contract soy oil went down more than 0.10 cents later. Weather play for palm oil is still positive and I do not see any changes for the time being, at least for this month. Maybe we would see some hesitation toward previous major around 2,793 level where price would retrace when it approach that area but other than that, there is no major concern for July contract to continue rally. Pay attention to export number and Ringgit changes, market is likely taking some hint before changing any course of direction. For today, range for July contract likely 2700~2740.

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

FCPO Setup 12 April 2016

What have you been missing so far.



"Wonder what is the U shape curve above or below a certain candle above this daily chart ? That is called a turning points for current June contract. Notice that the market usually always go into a ranging period or a sideways period before continue to head into that direction. Example the first curve above on Feb 12th to Feb 19th before heading down to for some retracement. Another curve would be located below the candles from March 2nd to 4th, see how the price rebounded a few times and gradually rally from that low ? The final curve would be situated above few candles happen on 29 March to 5th April before the June contract came down for some major retracement. My point is, there is no base for us to expect any curve yet, in another words, there is still no sign of any price recovery. What we can expect now would be getting Short when the price recover, the higher the better. Palm oil futures is likely open higher with soy oil recent surge. The soy oil for May contract suddenly surge about 0.27 cents from 33.87 cents yesterday evening to 34.14 cents this morning. While most of the fundamental is gradually shifting to neutral, we are still accessing the impact of yesterday MPOB palm oil increase production report. Malaysia is still manage to record higher production even with this hotter weather while Indonesia is having production cut everywhere up to 60% and could last until this June 2016. Crude oil hit $41 per barrel overnight, maybe that would serve some sort of barometer to overall commodities prices around the world. For today, range for June contract likely 2645~2690." 
-The article above is part of my daily news letter.

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Happy CNY 2016


Happy CNY 2016. Look how far we have come and accomplished together. Thank you for sticking around, there will be more good things to come !!

Friday, January 8, 2016

Useful E-Book 2016

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Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Friday, December 18, 2015

Happy New Year And Welcome To 2016 !!!!

2016 Is Just Around the Corner


With new year coming too soon, I want to take this opportunity to wish all my readers happy new year and welcome to year 2016. Below is part of the article I have shared all the time since months ago, and if you are interested to receive this write up, please subscribe by emailing me back.

"Palm oil futures is likely open unchanged on soy oil lack of movement yesterday. Perhaps commodities market tend to wait what happen next after the Feds raise rates yesterday. The bad news is yet over for palm oil futures, price can still go down from here amid weaker than expected demand. The dryer weather /El-Nino can wait next year, price has go down for the time being, and it is showing it on smaller time frame chart. Major commodities such as crude oil is likely staying low for the first quarter of 2016. The worst is yet over for the rest of other commodities, not all will get the positive effect from El-Nino dry weather, no one will know for sure when the price of edible oil will start to re-act to this news. Meteorologist is expecting El-Nino to swept in Asia Pacific starting around first quarter, curbing palm oil production (hopefully). But until that time, current palm oil futures direction is anybody guess. For today, march contract is likely ranging between 2390~2365.

Wrapping up the year of 2015, this will be the moment of truth journal of hourly chart strategy. It has been a tough journey since....." Subscribe for more.



Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Monday, October 5, 2015

FCPO: Calm Before The Storm

FCPO: Looked At How Far We Have Arrived



Palm oil futures had it most outrageous move ever since two years ago. The benchmark month is making serious range day after day starting at the mid of third quarter and now it might be showing some sign of slowing down, maybe. The benchmark month significant rally from 1863 level was an astonishing achievement for those who did not believe market can take form of any formation. No one can tell when is the market is going to peak nor whether it is recovering from a bottom, no one. One things that remain constant was, news will be Bearish when the price headed down for some time, and news will be very Bullish when the price has moved or recovered more than it should. The point is, there is always a lag between news and price. Very smart traders will use news to manage their positions. Well, mostly these types of traders do have strong opinion and we know what happen for those who have opinion and plan to stick with it. Deep pocket was part of the pre-requisite to have any opinion, ego and strong language came after that. I have high respect and jealous for those who have opinion in the market and their ability to withstand pain when the price goes against them. Back to the market outlook, there are some hesitation on the recent high after the Dec contract retrace slightly for some profit taking. It seems that the price is forming small triangular shape at current price. It is a concentrated price range waiting to be burst out. Judging from historical price action, two or more session that ended with hesitation at current high is likely mean the Bulls are likely giving up but there is also a fair chance that the Bears are not gaining any advantage over the Bulls either. In another words, it is likely that this hesitation will continue to extend its sideways price action unless the price break off new previous high or major support.

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.