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Thursday, September 25, 2014

FCPO: Lets Give Bulls Chance To Dance 25th Sept 2014

Thursday, 25th Sept 2014. Palm oil futures manage to recover promisingly starting last Tuesday amid positive progress made on Soy oil and improved palm oil export numbers also help. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks rallied on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average recording their best one-day percentage gain in more than 5 weeks. The rebound snapped a 3-day losing streak that has been blamed in part on worries about global growth and fighting in Iraq and Syria. A stronger-than-expected report on new-home sales and dovish comments from two Federal Reserve officials, may have contributed to gains. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.78%  gained 15.63 points, or 0.9%, to 1,998.38. Broad-based gains were led by health care and consumer staples sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.90%  gained 155.02 points, or 0.9%, to 17,210.89, recovering some of the steep losses from the previous two sessions. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.03%  added 46.53 points, or 1.03%, to 4,555.22, while the small-cap Russell 2000 RUT, +0.86%   — which has lagged behind the other indexes this month and this year — gained 8.9 points, or 0.8%, to 1,127.60.

"-Here are the closi levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) down 0.2% ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) up 0.4% ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) up 1.5% ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) down 0.7% ; Seoul (Kospi) up 0.3% Taipei (Taiex) up 0.2%."

"-Crude-oil futures rose Wednesday after weekly inventories data showed an unexpected decline in supplies. Light, sweet crude futures for November delivery CLX4, -0.03%  rose $1.24, or 1.4%, to settle at $92.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. November Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange LCOX4, -0.04%  rose 10 cents, or 0.1%, to end at $96.95 a barrel."


FCPO- We Might Looking At The Beginning Of Short Term To Long Term Recovery.

Now I might sound optimistic but that is how a healthy uptrend is made. An good prolong uptrend is always tested before it can begin running its way to higher ground. That mean, series of retracement and recovery right thereafter. If you put it in technical terms, the hourly chart or daily chart if you are looking at higher time frame must create series of higher lows first, then higher highs for further confirmation. A few successive higher lows and higher highs signifies consistent involvement of Bulls. Bulls are significantly aggressive if there is a new higher highs, forcing most Bears out of business. On contrary, I may sound pessimistic about palm oil outlook starting this week due to very strong signs that Bears would take control after looking three consecutive Bearish candle on daily chart. But that is necessary because we need to be clear about what the price and candle are telling us, thus trade on what you see, not what you think is best practice to be profitable in the market. Staying clear of what you are not sure such as news, fundamental data or advise of others might avoid you to make costly mistake on your trading equity. Staying control is crucial to this business, which means fully took charge of your positions and emotion in check. For this week, we are likely looking at a new higher high formed if the December contract manage to breached above 2,173 level and staying above that level for the closing would be the best sign to tell you that market is heading North for longer time frame.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2179
R1=2167
S1=2133
S2=2111
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

FCPO: Down We Go, Again 23rd Sept 2014

Tuesday, 23rd Sept 2014. The palm oil futures closed lower yesterday amid weakness on Soy oil since last Thursday as both the edible oil recovery are slowing down.

"-U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 falling by its largest margin in nearly seven weeksInvestors turned skittish as they fretted about falling commodity prices and concerns about global growth. A decline in economic activity in August, measured by Chicago Federal Reserve as well as a drop in existing-home sales contributed to the dour Wall Street mood. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.80%  closed 16.11 points, or 0.8%, lower at 1,994.29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.62%  dropped 107.06 points, or 0.6%, to 17,172.68. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.14%  fell 52.10 points, or 1.1%, to 4,527.69."


"- Hong Kong stocks fell on Monday to the lowest closing level in about two months, amid growing concerns about China’s economy after comments from the finance minister suggested no major stimulus measures would be announced despite a slowdown. The Hang Seng Index HSI, -1.44%  declined 1.4% to 23,955.49, its lowest close since late July. Finance Minister Lou Jiwei over the weekend said at a G-20 meeting that Chinese economy is facing downward pressure. But the nation won’t “make major policy adjustments” due to changes in any individual economic indicator, according to a statement on the website of the People’s Bank of China. Over on the Chinese mainland, Shanghai markets closed significantly lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -1.70%  down 1.7%. Other major markets in Asia were also weaker. In Japan, the Nikkei AverageNIK, -0.71%  ended down 0.7%, while the broader Topix index I0000, +0.00% inched 0.1% lower. The yen USDJPY, -0.17%  slightly weakened to ¥109.079 against the dollar, compared with ¥109.047 in the previous session. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.15%  gave up 1.3%, while in South Korea, the Kospi Composite Index SEU, -0.62%  pulled back 0.7%."

FCPO- Tough Ride Ahead. 


Palm oil futures for December contract is retracing down for the moment amid weak respond from Soy oil recently. Current upside is likely pause due to recent candle formation, and it does not look good for long term recovery. But before I go into foretelling the outlook of palm oil futures, lets take a look at the fundamental side of it. The good news was, Malaysia palm oil export is increasing to double digit growth, cargo surveyor ITS reported there was 21.2% increase palm oil export for the month of 1-20th Sept vs Aug. The export news was indeed a welcome sight, but it need to continue recording steady growth in order to reduce stocks level, that is where the real effect is going to take place. With the possibility of palm oil stocks decreasing with steady demand, we can then dream of further price recovery. For the moment, let just not hope that market would stay sideways within 2,050~2,150 for too long and too frequent. The real deal, there was two significant warning on the daily chart before the market dip down to 2,064 level yesterday. The first sign was the formation of shooting star when the price closed lower on previous Thursday after hitting new high in the morning session, about 2,172 level before closing at day low at 2,138 level. The second Bearish sign came again when December contract closed lower on the next day, it was a red candle on the afternoon session down to 2,109 level. And yesterday, the December contract declined to 2,064 on morning session but manage to closed at day high at 2,090 level. Event though the December mange to recover at the end of session, we would not expecting it to recover from this point due to new weakness on Soy oil, it was traded slightly below 32 cents per pound as the time of writing. Overall, long term perspective remain Bearish at the moment, while we might be looking at some potential for the market to recover on export news on short term, this recover might serve as chances for the Bears to join the Shorting charade. For today, pivot support is located around 2,053 while resistance is pegged at 2,100.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2111
R1= 2100
S1= 2071
S2= 2053
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

FCPO: Time To Get Up, For The Time Being 18th Sept 2014

Thursday, 18th Sept 2014. Palm oil futures is building positive momentum this week amid some cheerful news on export and promising recovery on Soy oil. Other news to follow.


"The U.S. stock market closed slightly higher Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a record high. The main benchmarks swung higher after the Fed meeting and Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s news conference but trimmed gains by the end of the session. In the end, the Federal Reserve stuck to its view that it will keep short-term interest rates near zero for a “considerable time” after the central bank ends large-scale purchases of bonds meant to stimulate the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.13%  rose 2.59 points, or 0.1 to 2.001.57. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.15%  added 24.88 points, or 0.2% to 17,156.85. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.21%  gained 9.43 points, or 0.2%, to 4,562.19."
"-Hong Kong stocks bounced back Wednesday, breaking an eight-day losing streak, after China’s central bank reportedly pumped tens of billions of dollars into the banking system to spur economic growth in China amid a worse-than-expected slowdown. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, +1.00%  rebounded 1%, recouping some losses after having registered a roughly 4.7% loss over the eight previous sessions."
"-U.S. oil inventories rose 3.7 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 12, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. That contrasted with expectations of a decline by 400,000 barrels, according to analysts polled by Platts. Gasoline supplies were down 1.6 million barrels, while distillates supplies rose 300,000 barrels, the EIA said. Gasoline stocks were seen down 300,000 barrels, and distillate stocks were expected to end the week unchanged. Oil for October delivery CLV4, -0.49% was recently trading at $93.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, from around $94.24 a barrel as the report was released."

FCPO- Still Have A Lot Of Work To Do.


The Bulls might won some battle this week when the price was able to stay above 2,100 but long term still suggest this rally would not outlast Bears. We are likely to expect palm oil futures to recovery further with 2,200 psychological resistance in mind. Part of the these rally were strengthen by Soy oil recovery above 33.00 cents per pound so far and palm oil 1-15th Sept vs Aug 2014 export also saw a significant recovery, export was up about 40%. Unfortunately, the hard truth was export need to stay positive substantially so that it can gradually reduce record high stocks level, which turn out no so soon. On technical side, there were obvious formation of higher highs and higher lows, and other few good signs for impending price recovery for the Sept month. The next untold answer would be where does this rally would end, frankly no one know "for sure." It is not a duty for a trader to "know" where does this or that rally end, but it is every traders job and duty to due diligently carry out their trades based on the plan or system layout. Risk management plays a big chunk whether the trades would make it or otherwise, imagine if a certain trader could manage his positions well based on his risk system. For today, the new benchmark Dec is likely open higher amid higher closing value on Soy oil futures. Pivot support for Dec is located around 2,112 while resistance is pegged at 2,177.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2177
R1= 2158
S1= 2112
S2= 2085
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

FCPO: We Are Yet Out Of The Woods 11th Sept 2014

Thursday, 11th Sept 2014. Palm oil futures manage to close at the day high yesterday but the real concern was would it able to rally even though stocks are at multi-year high ? Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks rose Wednesday, bouncing back from morning losses, as Apple Inc. and other tech stocks helped lead the way higher. Traders said while there was no single explanation for the turnaround, the market got a lift from Apple’s 3.1% jump and a new poll showing a majority of Scots favor remaining in the U.K. Investors have worried about Scotland potentially becoming independent after a poll over the weekend put those favoring independence ahead for the first time. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.36%   rose 7.25 points, or 0.4%, to close at 1,995.69, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.32%  added 54.84 points, or 0.3%, to 17,068.71. Both indexes snapped two-day skids, but remain down for the week. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.75%  gained 34.24 points, or 0.8%, to finish at 4,586.52. The tech-heavy index is up 0.1% for the week.

"-Hong Kong (MarketWatch) -- Here are the closing levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) up 0.3% ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) down 1.9% ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) down 0.4% ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) down 0.6% ; Taipei (Taiex) down 0.8%."

"-U.S. crude-oil supplies declined by 1 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 5, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. That met expectations of analysts polled by Platts, and numbers released late Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute, a trade group. The EIA also reported gasoline stockpiles were up 2.4 million, and distillates inventories rose 4.1 million barrels. The analysts surveyed by Platts had expected gasoline stocks unchanged and distillate stocks up 400,000 barrels. The report did little to support crude-oil futures trading in New York, however, weighed down by a strong dollar and ongoing concerns of plentiful worldwide supplies. Crude for October delivery CLV4, +0.10% was recently down 1.2% at $91.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.




FCPO- Data Suggest We Are Still In Bearish Mode

The main headlines for today, "we are yet out of the woods" sounds familiar as I have use this tittle few weeks ago. What the tittle meant was palm oil futures is still running on Bearish steam despite its promising attempt to rally passed certain major resistance level. The market did went passed above weekly resistance level around 2,053 but that rally was short lived when Nov price came crushing down right after it hit 2,068 last Monday. Ironic but that is the fact, the market is yet ready to turn current Bearish trend to Bullish. The Bulls do not want to commit anything that is too high, perhaps 2,068 and above was too high for them to kept Buying. Or maybe these guys know (on last Monday) that the output and stocks level will be announce at record high on yesterday. Even so, it is not a traders job to put much concern about what others might know more than you did. A traders jobs were to apply the knowledge into the trade and follow their plan layout before them or in another words due diligently manage the trade / positions according to the plan. That, is what a good trader is, consistently following his plan trades after trades, giving no attention to news, other says and other element that would influence a trader decision. All that matter would be the price because price is the ultimate indicator that would show where the market is heading next. Back to the palm oil futures outlook, we might not expecting any strong upside above 2,050 for this week as palm oil stocks rose 22% to 2.05 million tons, the highest since October 2009. This news alone would not be a good news for majority of Buyers out there. Fortunately, independent cargo surveyor ITS reported that Malaysia palm oil export for 1-10th Sept vs Oct rose about 41%, a joyful news that have pushed the price to close at day high yesterday. If this rising percentage on export can sustain, we can expect more rallies next week. For today, sideways market action is expected around 2,050 ~ 2,000 level.  

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2059
R1= 2045
S1= 2007
S2= 1983
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

FCPO: Challenging Path Ahead Of This Recovery 9th Sept 2014

Tuesday, 9th Sept 2014. Palm oil recovery has taken its toll by less aggressive Buyers so far, retracing most of the after hitting new high. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks ended lower on Monday as investors turned cautious after five straight weeks of gains that sent the main benchmarks to record highs. A few M&A deals were grabbing attention Monday. On the economic news front, data showed consumer credit rose a record amount in July. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.31%  lost 6.2 points, or 0.3%, to end at 2001.54, with the energy sector leading the losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% dropped 25.9 points, or 0.2%, to 17,111.42. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.20% defied the general trend and finished the session 9.4 points, or 0.2%, higher at 4,592.29."

"-Hong Kong stocks on Monday edged lower, as China’s imports for August fell unexpectedly, while exports slightly exceeded expectations. Official data showed Monday that China’s imports dropped by 2.4% on-year last month, against an estimated 2.7% rise from a poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal. Meanwhile, exports grew 9.4% year-over-over, above a forecast 9.2% increase by the economists. The Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.20%  ended down 0.2%, with its top components — HSBC Holdings PLC 0005, -0.78% and Tencent Holdings Ltd. 0700, -1.71% — as a drag. HSBC was off 0.8%, and Tencent declined 1.6%. In Japan, the Nikkei Average NIK, +0.46%  edged up 0.2%, while the yenUSDJPY, +0.01%  slightly dropped versus the dollar to ¥105.134 from ¥105.100 in the previous session. The broader Topix index I0000, +0.36%  rose 0.4%. In other Asian markets, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, +0.16%  fell 0.4%, with the Australian dollar AUDUSD, -0.05%  a little weaker at 93.56 U.S. cents, down from 93.78 U.S. cents in the prior session."


"- Gold prices rolled over to close lower Monday giving up earlier gains as headline risk from global conflicts eased. Gold for December delivery GCZ4, +0.32%  closed at $1,254.30 an ounce, down 1% from $1,267.30 on Friday. December silver SIZ4, +0.71%  fell 20 cents, or 1%, to settle at $18.96 an ounce."
"-CPO Futures end Higher
KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed higher yesterday with a firm bias due to the weakening of the ringgit against the US dollar. Both February 2014 and March 2014 was RM29 higher at RM2,586 and RM2,594 a tonne, respectively, April 2014, May 2014 and June 2014 edged up RM27 to RM2,602, RM2,602 and RM2,600 a tonne, respectively, while July 2014 added RM26 to RM2,591.  Turnover dwindled to 24,668 lots from Wednesday's 32,845 lots while open interest advanced to 192,541 contracts from 190,944 contracts. On the physical market, February South increased RM30 to RM2,590 a tonne."

FCPO- No Smooth Sailing To The North


No such thing as easy uptrend or smooth uptrend, the Bulls always faced tough time after it got beaten by Bears for the past three months. Bulls need more than good news to regain their confidence to charge north. For the moment, palm oil futures rallies is not impressive at all. Futures prices manage to recover and breach important resistance level around 2,052 but did not finish well since past Friday. All we can see here, the Bulls are still hesitate to commit Buying at higher level. Once Buyers reach certain high, they will dump or take their profit out of the market. With most traders are staying low and staying cautious on this pending rally, we should too. On the technical side, the benchmark Nov have breached above two important resistance level, which is previous Thursday high around 2,034 and one-week high at 2,052. Unfortunately, market is not convince that breaching these two resistance levels are sufficient enough to bring back more Bulls, and futures prices quickly erase these gain later on the afternoon session. The road to recovery is tough for the moment as Nov need to went up above 2,070 for the next rally to sustain, but this feat is not expected for the time being. On the external side, palm oil fundamental remain weak, export were still negative, stock and productions are still climbing, and we still looking at favorable weather for palm oil trees. Not good at all but these are the information we have, final judgement rest on you, or the trader themselves.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2086
R1= 2064
S1= 2023
S2= 2004

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

FCPO: First Sign Of Temporary Recovery 26th Aug 2014

Tuesday, 26th Aug 2014. Palm oil futures manage to recover up to 2.045 level amid some help from Soy oil yesterday afternoon. Would this be the sign of further recovery everybody is waiting for ? Other news to follow.

"- The S&P 500 on Monday climbed to a record close just shy of 2,000, as U.S. stocks received a lift from deal activity and hints of more stimulus from the European Central Bank. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.48%  gained 9.52 points, or 0.5%, to end at 1,997.92 after notching an intraday record at 2,001.95. While the benchmark finished under the milestone level of 2,000, it still achieved an all-time closing high for the 29th time this year. All 10 sectors advanced, with financials XLF, +0.87%  and energy XLE, +0.89%performing best. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.44% climbed 75.65 points, or 0.4%, to end at 17,076.87, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.41%  jumped by 18.80 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 4,557.35. The Dow stands 0.4% off its July 16 record close, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq again scored its highest close since March 31, 2000."

"- Here are the closing levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) up 0.5% ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) down 0.2% ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) down 0.5% ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) down 0.2% ; Seoul (Kospi) up 0.2% ; Taipei (Taiex) up 0.1%."

"-CPO Futures Prices Rebound on Stronger Soybean Market
KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices rebounded to close higher yesterday propped up by the strong gain on Chicago soybean market. Phillip Futures derivative product specialist David Ng said the news would provide a fresh catalyst for traders to drive up prices after having experienced a long bearish market recently. Spot month September 2014 was up RM28 to RM2,049 a tonne, October 2014 rose RM37 to RM2,030 a tonne, November 2014 gained RM31 to RM2,030 a tonne and December 2014 increased RM30 to RM2,053 a tonne. Volume rose to 60,811 lots from 48,181 lots on Friday while open interest increased to 309,727 contracts from 294,549 contracts previously. On the physical market, September South was RM30 higher at RM2,060 a tonne from RM2,030 a tonne on Friday. Bernama"


FCPO- We Are Still Yet Out Of The Woods. 


I bet you have read this title before "we are yet out of the woods," as I want to share the outlook that most people would like to hear, that is not what I have in mind for the moment. If you take a closer look at higher time frame chart, yesterday afternoon recovery session was indeed impressive but we are far from reversing this whole Bearish trend in daily chart, or even hourly chart yet. Nothing much has changed for current down trend even with yesterday rally. It might be slightly different story on 15 minutes and 5 minutes chart, where it suggest there would be further recovery if the price manage to go up above 2,045 today, but the Bearish prospectus is still intact on hourly and daily chart. We still need more sessions to determine whether the Bulls are back and willing to stay for some time, at least for another 200 points commitment. And how do we look at that sign ? Any formation of higher lows and higher high on hourly will be a good indication or signs that the Bulls are coming back.And if you are prefer slow time frame such as daily chart and take it easy, you might need to look at price breaking pass some major resistance level such as 2,100 ~ 2,200 level to start with. Higher period of moving average also helps to see whether there is any price breakthrough above the line. All these technique may sound simple to observe, but very tough to execute it, that is what separate the difference between traders A who always want to get it right and traders B who just want to follow their system plan. Which one would you think will be more success months after months ?

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2099
R1=2063
S1=1972
S2=1917
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

FCPO: 2,200 Boom, 2,100 Boom, 2,000 Next ? 21st Aug 2014

Thursday, 21st Aug 2014. Palm oil futures is under siege from Bear forces and there is no telling where does this weakness will head next, no promising Support level yet. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, shaking off a dip that came after Federal Reserve minutes indicated that policy makers talked at their last meeting about a sooner-than-anticipated hike to interest rates. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.25%  rose 4.91 points, or less than 0.3%, to finish at 1,986.51. The benchmark index turned negative shortly after the minutes came out at 2 p.m. Eastern, but it bounced back and even briefly traded above its July 24 record close of 1,987.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.35% tacked on 59.54 points, or nearly 0.4%, to finish at 16,979.13, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.02% edged down by 1.03 points, or less than 0.1%, to 4,526.48. The S&P and Dow have advanced for three days in a row, while the Nasdaq snapped a five-session winning streak."

"-Here are the closing levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) flat ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) up 0.2% ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) down 0.2% ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) up 0.2% ; Seoul (Kospi) up 0.1% ; Taipei (Taiex) up 0.5%."

"- Crude-oil futures rose Wednesday on the back of data that confirmed a weekly decline in U.S. stockpiles. West Texas intermediate crude for delivery in September CLU4, +2.03% advanced $1.59, or 1.7%, to $96.07 a barrel in electronic trade."

FCPO- 2,000 Might Not Be A Good Support

There were many what it told to be a strong support broken when there is a Bearish or worse down trend market. Most traders who would like to counter trend and trade, were getting their best spanking in the market so far. If you were the traders who go Long on those round number support level and yet cut losses or worse yet knowing where to exit your positions, you better deep pocket to cover up your opinion. There is nothing to prove in the market, in fact more to lose if you hold on to your opinion. I bet you have heard "dollar cost averaging," this was the most misleading strategy in my book. Taking more positions just because your cost of obtaining that asset is lower does not answer most of the question later. Piling up your position is a worse thing any trader can do to his risk capital, not knowing where is low would be. Best thing to do when you are trading would be following your initial system or plan and have what it takes to "STICK" with it. Do not change everything when the market is moving against or favorable to you, stick what is already layout plan before you even hit your Buy/Sell position. In the end, discipline and consistency played vital role in any business, especially in financial trading, using your own money as a wager. For today outlook, we are likely looking at temporary recovery amid higher closing value on Soy oil overnight. The most active traded Soy oil contract settled higher at 32.86 cents per pound from previous Wednesday closing at 32.60 cents per pound.For today, pivot support is located around 2,037 while resistance is pegged at 2,086.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2086
R1=2067
S1=2037
S2=2026

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

FCPO: We Are Yet Out Of The Jungle 19th AUg 2014

Tuesday, 19th Aug 2014. Palm oil futures is still subject to fall further as sentiment on palm oil output and stocks are still high. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks finished with strong gains Monday, helped by deal news and easing Ukraine-Russia tensions. A better-than-expected reading on the housing market also boosted sentiment and kicked off a big week for economic data. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.85% rose 16.68 points, or 0.9%, to close at 1,971.74, adding to its 1.2% weekly gain last week. The benchmark index stands just 0.8% off its July 24 record close, as it’s bounced back from a slump in late July and early August.The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.06% jumped 175.83 points, or 1.1%, to finish at 16,838.74. The blue-chip barometer achieved its biggest point gain since Aug. 8. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.97%  climbed 43.39 points, or 1%, to 4,508.31, scoring its highest close since March 2000. Yahoo Inc. YHOO, +2.50%  and Google Inc. GOOGL, +1.54% GOOG, +1.51%  rose 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively, as tech stocks enjoyed broad gains."

"- Here are the closing levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) flat ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) flat ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) up 0.6% ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) up 0.4% ; Seoul (Kospi) down 0.5% ; Taipei (Taiex) down 0.7%."

"- Oil futures dropped again Monday, as investors pushed geopolitical concerns surrounding violence and unrest in Ukraine and Iraq to the back burner. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in September CLU4, +0.26%  fell 94 cents, or 0.9%, to close at $96.41 a barrel. October Brent crude LCOV4, +0.07%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $1.93 to $101.60, its lowest finish in more than a year."

"-CPO Futures End Marginally Lower
KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices ended marginally lower yesterday due to the prevailing negative sentiment, a dealer said. Phillip Futures derivative product specialist David Ng said expectation of higher production and stocks level weighed heavily on prices. Spot month September 2014 fell RM8 to RM2,099 a tonne, October 2014 declined RM6 to RM2,087 a tonne, November shed RM3 to RM2,088 a tonne and December 2014 eased RM6 to RM2,129. Volume slipped to 40,507 lots from 44,266 lots recorded on Friday while open interest increased to 283,460 contracts from 205,112 contracts previously. On the physical market, August South slipped RM30 to RM2,110 a tonne.Bernama"


FCPO- Do Not Hope For Recovery Too Soon

We are yet out of the Bearish market or this Bearish momentum is come to an end whatsoever. There is no conducive sign for us to take into consideration yet even palm oil futures prices have fall to five years low. The only intelligent guesses you can make will be, this Bearish market is yet over. More weakness is possible with current active output due to good weather and this will subsequently increase palm oil stocks to 1% to 4% gradually. With this in mind, there is no telling where is the next support or where palm oil futures Bearish momentum will run-off its steam. Moving on, we are looking at slightly higher opening today as Soy oil futures manage to recover slightly above 30.02 cents as the time of writing. But bear in mind that we are yet out of negative price movement yet. The new benchmark Nov contract can fall below 2,000 level this month if there is not much good news from export figures, ITS and SGS cargo surveyors. Technically, without incorporating any fancy indicators or calculation, we might looking at first resistance level around 2,095 followed by 2,104 level while support is located around 2,080 followed by 2,074 level. The Nov contract is likely recover further if the first resistance level broken, and bad news if it manage to breach below 2,080 level today. More weakness is expected anything below 2,080 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2104
R1=2095
S1=2080
S2=2074

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

FCPO: Palm Oil Price Is Still Bearish 14th Aug 2014.

Thursday, 14th Aug 2014. Forget what you saw for the past few sessions this week, palm oil price is no doubt still in Bearish mode and we are yet knowing anything about where is the next support. Other news to follow.

"- The U.S. stock market closed with modest gains on Wednesday, led by advances in the health-care and technology sectors. The main benchmarks gained in the three of the past four sessions, bouncing off the lows reached last week. Gains on the Nasdaq Composite were led by biotechnology companies, with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB +0.01%   up 2.2%. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +1.02% added 44.87 points, or 1%, to 4,434.13. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA +0.55%  added 91.26 points, or 0.6%, to 16,651.80.
The S&P 500 SPX +0.67%  climbed 12.97 points, or 0.7%, to 1,946.72. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.VRTX +3.91%   led gainers." 
"-Here are the closing levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) up 0.4% ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) up 0.8% ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) up 0.1% ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) down 0.3% ; Seoul (Kospi) up 1% ; Taipei (Taiex) up 0.7%."
"-U.S. oil supplies rose by 1.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 8, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. That contrasted with expectations of a fall by 2 million barrels, according to analysts surveyed by Platts. Supplies of gasoline decreased by 1.2 million barrels, and stockpiles of distillates, which include heating oil, were down by 2.4 million barrels, the EIA added. Analysts polled by Platts had expected gasoline stocks to decline 1.5 million barrels, and distillate stocks were seen up 250,000 barrels. Crude-oil for September delivery CLU4 -0.24% recently traded at $96.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, off 47 cents, or 0.4%. It was trading around $97.20 a barrel before the supply report. "


FCPO- No Support In Sight

With the rate of Soy oil and majority of the edible commodity falling, there is no telling where is the next support for palm oil price. As of writing, Soy oil futures dipped to multi year to 33.73 cents per pound, making it the worse losses so far. Palm oil futures is likely following its rival oil foot steps soon. For start, palm oil futures might be opening twenty to thirty points lower today. Soy oil futures is likely set the tone for the palm oil opening bell and there would not be any different for today. Both palm oil technical and fundamental ground are still Bearish. MPOB reported very Bearish news as output and palm oil stocks rose 6.1% and 1.5% respectively, and export was down 2.3%. Not only that, technical outlook has been Bearish as well with series of lower high and lower lows can be found on daily chart. Even most of the time frame was Bearish all this time, shorter time frame traders or intraday traders will have better flexibility to navigate their Long or Short positions throughout the day. Never overnight a position if you are an intraday trader, I saw too many example intraday trader turned into overnight trader, especially holding on losing position. And of course, shrinking their account equity after that, not knowing what to do or what to expect even after numerous guide provided. These inferior traits that applied in trading business will only derive one result, blowing up a capital account fast. The way that a trader can progress would be, learn how risk work, how to manage it and at the end knowing when to stop and when to hold on. Unfortunately, most instances I saw was traders misplaced their hopes and fear. They are fearful when they are right, hopeful when they are wrong. Both of these behaviour are destructive weapon you brought in when trading. To sum up on today outlook, palm oil futures is still Bearish on every time frame, be it short term or long term, most price recovery to pivot resistance level is a good place to go Short.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2218
R1= 2197
S1= 2159
S2= 2142
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.