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Monday, February 20, 2017

20th Feb 2017: FCPO Market Commentary

17th Feb 2017: Soy Oil Traded 0.06 Cents Lower, On-Shore Ringgit Traded Unchanged @ RM4.4575 Per USD.
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Palm oil futures Support level for the benchmark month is now officially broken, but not the end of the world yet. This will be the first picture of how strong the benchmark month has breach below the long term Support level at 3,014~ 3,000 area. Palm oil futures for May contract took the extra miles down on previous Friday when it tumble below 2,870 on the afternoon session, signaling more weakness along with soy oil price retracement. I believe traders are spook with the upcoming active production cycle coming this 2nd quarter, plus Indonesia palm oil planting is starting to return to normal cycle. Market fear that the low stockpiles number would not be able to hold its ground that long and will start to increase starting April month. For more pressing correlation, I believe that this weak soy oil weakness has most thing to do with palm oil price correction. Just look at how swift the soy oil for March contract fell from 34.49 cents in 13th Feb to previous Friday @ 33.03 cents, a whopping straight $1.49 cents decent without stopping. Trade #182 Short @2,870 is holding overnight align with risk management rules. I hope that the soy oil will keep its ground below 33.00 cents until the palm oil futures opening. If the May contract price open above 2,870, it will close off immediately as right now trade #182 stops is at break even point after the market has moved more than 15 points last Friday. For today, palm oil futures is likely open unchanged as soy oil did not move much from its last Friday closed. Soy oil for March contract was traded 0.06 cents lower to 33.00 cents this morning. I think market is oversold and should be time for the market to rebound, the range for May is likely moving within 2,850 ~ 2,900.

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, February 16, 2017

16th Feb 2017: FCPO Commentary

15th Feb 2017: Soy Oil Traded 0.20 Cents Lower, On-Shore Ringgit Traded Slightly Firm @ RM4.4475 Per USD.
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Palm oil futures had a small recovery going on currently as there was no surprise correction happen on soy oil during Asia trading session. Market volume for Apr contract seems quite active with 17k contract traded while more and more traders are shifting their positions to May contract gradually. The May contract recorded about 14k contracts traded, that was just 3k contracts behind the Apr contract. The 3rd palm oil futures months will be May contract today, taking on the helm of active benchmark month. Maybe some of you did not notice on the spread for March April has widen about 125 points !! It was huge backwardation if you look at it. Usually an unusual price hike caused by un-expected weather changed such as extreme El-Nino last has forced near month price to rise faster and higher than the forward months price. I had no trade setup so far after trade #181 had met its doom on previous Tuesday, but I am not sitting there like a duck either. I have a new idea to incorporate some other oscillator so that there is other signal or trade setup in-line with the trend while waiting for the next position. I have tested a few indicators and it seems by combining Parabolic SAR, it yield better results. I still have a lot of data to go thru and back testing before I can conclude anything. Palm oil export for 1-15th Feb vs Jan 2017 only rose about 1.4%, it was reported by ITS cargo surveyors. You are advise to be wary on this particular price recovery as it does not show a promising strength so far. The rally we seen starting from previous Tuesday is not as strong as how it came down previously. This would also mean, the Buyers are still cautious overall. For today, palm oil futures is likely open lower on overnight soy oil retracement. The soy oil for March was traded 0.20 cents lower to 34.02 cents this morning. Range for the new benchmark month May is likely moving within 2,930 ~ 2,970.

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

15th Feb 2017: FCPO Commentary

14th Feb 2017: Soy Oil Traded 0.06 Cents Lower, On-Shore Ringgit Traded Slightly Weaker @ RM4.4500
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When you try your best and you dont succeed, dont fred because you might just need to dig another inch to discover your gold. Just like the image above, success can never be easy to achieve and as easy as it seen, trading is an time consuming exercise to be good at. If trading is easy as advertise or if there is any results proven robot trading, most of the people in the world would have quit their job and just let that robot did all the work !! Trade #181 had to take some SL before the morning ends, it was a good call not to hold any position over the lunch. The Apr contract open 7 points lower from 3,035 to 3,028 and kept heading down to 3,024 before showing any sign to recover for the rest of afternoon session. I think most of the traders felt market is oversold or too good not to go Long when Apr price fell down below 3,014 level. Let us not forget that major support and resistance usually can be seen in the daily chart, is a strong pivot point for price to bounce up for Support and price to retrace down if it is a major resistance level. It is not in 100% certainty that price will re-act exactly at certain support or resistance level, but it likely on those area. For instance, I mentioned that on previous Monday that major Support is likely located at around 3,014 ~ 3,000 area, this is where the benchmark price likely to re-act if the major Support should hold. Do note that on yesterday, the Apr contract somehow dip to 3,011 level before it could recover all the way to 3,058 in the afternoon session. Now, lets take another scenario where the price re-acted differently on the Support area. Lets just say that, hypothetically the Apr contract went down slightly below 3,000 level, before it stop and start to recover 40 points from that low. Would my major Support area suggestion came out entirely wrong because price has went out of my boundaries ? What matters here would be setting an expectation and have the courage to find out what would the price do next, and if you are better than anyone else, you get the chances of making money out of it. For today, palm oil futures is likely open slightly lower due to soy oil weakness. The soy oil for March was traded 0.06 cents lower to 34.18 cents. Range for Apr contract likely moving within 3,020 ~ 3,070.



Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

14th Feb 2017: FCPO Commentary

13th Feb 2017: Soy Oil Traded 0.11 Cents Lower, On-Shore Ringgit Traded Slightly Weaker @ RM4.4495
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Palm oil futures continue to dive yesterday, most probably on soy oil weakness. I believe market is taking some negative cue from the production spike up in some report. The fear of palm oil output returning to normal cycle in Indonesia and recent palm oil export drop about 3.1% also force price to head down below 3,050 level yesterday. I did not get any chance to enter any trade as there is no Long trade setup. Palm oil futures is likely heading downwards for more times to come due to production spike fear. The long term Support level is still located around 3,014 ~3,000 area, which is previous one and half week low. Soy oil is still going to head down even further judging from its 7 weeks downtrend channel. You will find that the daily chart on soy oil lower high and recent lower low is just too obvious to ignore. Meanwhile for palm oil chart, the Apr contract is relatively trading quite close to the Support area. Despite recent price action on the benchmark Apr, I still believe that this two days major price drop is just a temporary correction. It is unlikely that price will turn into a downtrend that soon just because some traders feel that stockpiles will continue to build up due to recent palm oil output spike in the Southern region in Malaysia. Maybe we will be able to see the Apr contract continue to drop to around 3,100 area if the soy oil price continue to drop further but weak Ringgit is likely providing some Support if the price gone down too steep. For today, palm oil futures is likely open slightly higher judging on yesterday oversold reading. Without any surprise, palm oil futures might even follow the same morning session pattern yesterday, where the price open higher and fell mostly on the afternoon session.  Range for Apr contract is likely moving within 3,000 ~ 3,150, prone to have new weekly low this week. 



 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Monday, February 13, 2017

13th Feb 2017: FCPO Market Commentary


10th Feb 2017: Soy Oil Traded 0.07 Cents Lower, On-Shore Ringgit Traded Slightly Weaker @ RM4.4475
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Market is still a mysterious place at least for my case, I yet to understand most of the price re-action to certain news and development. The Apr contract just dip from 3,135 level all the way to 3,072 level in the afternoon session, probably due to weak 1st-10th export number. ITS cargo surveyor announce that palm oil export fell 3.1% for that date, and the price just get over excited and starting to fall. Frankly, I do not see any bubble when the benchmark contract continue to head up in the morning session on previous Friday. This is because most of the MPOB report for palm oil still looks good. Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s second-largest producer, fell 7.6% to 1.54m metric tons in Jan. from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement. Palm oil output dropped 13% to 1.28m tons; exports rose 1.2% to 1.28m tons. I guess the price dropped due to palm oil stocks still stood at 1.54m tons vs survey 1.49m ton, from here it is anyone guess. Trade #178 had to resume Long when the market open for 2nd session, ended up with SL right after that. Trade #179 made it to partial TP about 20 points as I am not looking hold Short position overnight when the price is still above 21-days EMA. Unfortunately, Apr contract proof me wrong when the price keep going below 3,080 a few minutes after that. I must admit, the thrist of avoiding my profit vaporize is too great when I TP at 5.10PM, 20 minutes before 5.30PM or at my time limit for closing position. We learn something everyday in this battlefield, and I hope I can survive long enough for me to grind back the equity back to glory. For today, palm oil futures is likely open slightly higher due to previous Friday oversold reading. Soy oil for March is traded 0.07 lower about 0.07 cents to 34.58 cents this morning. Range for Apr contract is likely moving within, 3,070 ~ 3,110.

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

7th Feb 2017: FCPO Commentary

7th Feb 2017: Soy Oil Traded 0.06 Cents Lower, On-Shore Ringgit Traded Slightly Weaker @ RM4.4415
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Trade #177 was re-enter Long around 3,064 level with maximum 5 points stop loss on current preset risk management rules. Unfortunately, the Apr contract happens to vacuum down from 3,062 to 3,058 level, forcing my Sell stop to hit at the next best bid, which is at 3,058. I am not saying that the market is not liquid or there is any technical glitch at that moment, but that is what happen to me yesterday for trade #177 stop loss point on afternoon session. What made me frown the most would be the ability for palm oil futures to rally all the way from 3,057 to 3,089 level after taking my extended stop loss. I still believe any traders out there will have tough time trading in the market, but for my case I did not see any app-laudable achievement yet on my equity since the I start using "The Edges" on Nov 2016. I guess the positive sentiment on palm oil futures still valid judging from how well the Apr contract recover from a swift retracement to day high on closing session. The news on Indonesia palm oil production spike coming this second quarter may not have any effect for the time being probably because we are still 2 months away from April month. For now, palm oil price outlook is likely riding on positive cruise ship that would sail North, steadily. I also did some messy trade based on minute chart, and it was a challenge just to keep up the pace. Trading using full discretionary in a fast pace market does need high concentration and energy, I can honestly tell you that the afternoon session was a struggle to keep my eyes open for the setup. For today, palm oil futures is likely open slightly lower due to soy oil overnight retracement. Soy oil for March was traded 0.06 cents lower to 34.40 cents this morning. Range for Apr contract is likely moving within 3,095 ~ 3,050. 


 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Happy CNY 2017 !!

Seasons Greetings


Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Welcoming New Year 2017



Looking forward to see this community grows !!!

Friday, December 9, 2016

The Edges Performance Since Inception 22nd Nov 2016

Here is the benchmark after putting in real live trades using "The Edges" on FCPO 5 minutes chart.


Total Trades: 15
Total Win %: 37%
Total Losing %: 60%
Break Even %: 3%
Profit: 105 points
Losses: 121
Net P/L: -16

Summary: Not expecting some darn good numbers yet as I just started to grind this strategy right at my back yard. Let just see how it perform for the next 3 months.

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

New strategies called The Edges. Beta testing phase update.


Risk Rewards: 15 points risk : 30 points rewards. Half position will be overnight if no stop loss or target profit hit. Full position x2 lots, 50% position = x1 lot. RM10k required per lot. 



Most recent outcome:

Most Favorable Excursion / lot :         199 points
Most Un-favorable Excursion / lot :    -19 points  

Most Winning Streak = 5 times in a row
Most Draw Down = 4 times in a row
                                                                                                

Points Verdict+345

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.