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Wednesday, January 28, 2015

FCPO: Weak Demand And In-active International On Edible Oil Transaction Curb Price 28th Jan 2015

Wednesday, 28th Jan 2015. Palm oil futures went down for another week since 15th Jan 2015 and never look back. The rejection on price 2,394 was a rather substantial and no one can tell for sure it would become this bad. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks recorded their biggest decline in three weeks on Tuesday, following a surprise drop in durable-goods orders and disappointing earnings from Microsoft Corp. and Caterpillar Inc. The weak data stoked fears that economic growth is decelerating The S&P 500 SPX, -1.34%  closed down 27.53 points, or 1.3%, at 2,029.56, as Microsoft Corp. MSFT, -9.25%  and Caterpillar Inc. CAT, -7.18%  plunged to lead losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.65%  dropped as much as 380 points, but closed down 291.49 points, or 1.7%, at 17,387.21. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.89%  ended the day with a loss of 90.27 points, or 1.9%, at 4,681.50, as its largest component, Apple Inc. AAPL, -3.50% slid 3.5%."
"- Chinese stocks broke a five-day winning streak on Tuesday, as Hong Kong and Shanghai markets both pulled back amid concerns fueled by a drop in the profit growth at major Chinese industrial companies and a previous sharp fall for China’s yuan. At the same time, Japanese stocks advanced to one-month high, after Greek election results impacted global markets by less than expected Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.41%  retreated 0.4% to 24,897.28, after touching a four-month high in the previous close. Over on the mainland, the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -0.89%  fell 0.9% to 3,352.96, also pulling back from its best closing level in more than five years. The declines came after official data showing that profit at major Chinese industrial companies grew 3.3% year-on-year in 2014, down sharply from a 12.2% increase in 2013."
"-Crude-oil futures rose more than 2% on Tuesday, as some optimism about curtailing output seemed to permeate markets and ahead of a fresh weekly report on stockpiles. Light, sweet crude futures for delivery in March CLH5, -1.84%  rose $1.08, or 2.4%, to settle at $46.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The settlement snapped a three-day losing streak. Prices had weaved in and out of the red earlier in the day, trading as low as $44.81 a barrel and as high as $46.55 a barrel."


FCPO- Still A Long Way To Go For Bulls To Regain Power


The benchmark April went down again and this time with some consolation prize. Instead of keep on going down the April contract did recover slightly yesterday from 2,151 level to 2,184 level on late afternoon session. This might be a good news for those who have Longed slightly below 2,200 level, and that is all the break you can get as Bearish tone in palm oil futures is yet subside. Today, palm oil futures is likely open lower amid recent weakness in Soy oil. The actively traded April contract on Soy oil dropped back to 30.87 cents per pound, which is likely giving negative opening to palm oil futures soon. Technically, lower lows and lower highs formed on hourly chart are the key sign for the market to go down two weeks ago. As a trader, these chart formations are very hard to ignore, and as a trend trader you better take action. It is simple for our eyes to see what happen in the chart, but most of us choose not to trust and act on it. That is a also a simple fact on why most traders failed, seasoned or new traders would go into the same loop of failure if they expect different results doing the same thing. The problem with our society was, smart people are full of doubt and foolish people are full of confidence. In case of trading business, smart people was too smart to act on the chart, smart people takes in news and whatever factor they can come up with, just another good reason for them to pull the trigger. For smart people, chart is too simple to begin with. It is a fatal mindset in trading business to think everyone act the same with similar information appear on the chart. Well, for foolish people, it is the direct opposite of smart people in the trading business. So, which kind of trader you would wished to be, a perfect compromised would be being smart and foolish at the right timing.
For today range, palm oil futures for April contract is likely hovering within 2,185 to 2,146 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2206
R1= 2195
S1= 2162
S2= 2140
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

FCPO: Its A Swift Selling From 2,394 to 2,300 20th Jan 2014

Tueday, 20th Jan 2015. Palm oil futures has its run down from the peak 2,394 to 2,298 previous Friday and this new weekly break out might not sustain. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks ended the roller-coaster week on a high note, as a rally in oil prices and calmer currency markets provided a rare boost of confidence. The main benchmarks broke a five-day losing streak, but still ended the fourth-straight week with losses. The S&P 500 SPX, +1.34% closed up 26.75 points, or 1.3%, at 2,019.42, but was down 1.2% over the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.10% gained 190.86 points, or 1.1%, to 17,511.57, and lost 1.3% over the week. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.39% ended the day with a gain of 63.56 points, or 1.4%, at 4,634.38, and recorded a 1.5% weekly loss."

"- Chinese stocks dived the most in over six years Monday, with a wide sell-off sweeping across the financial sector as investors turned jittery over the latest move by securities regulators to clean up the margin-trading business. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -7.70%   plunged 7.7% to close at 3,116.35, posting its biggest daily percentage decline since June 2008 . Prior to Monday’s heavy loss, the index was up 4.4% for the month to date, extending gains after finishing 2014 with a sharp 53% advance. The plunge in mainland China helped to push Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index HSI, -1.51%  down 1.5%, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises — which tracks Hong Kong-listed mainland Chinese companies — off 5%."

"-Crude-oil futures pushed lower in volatile action during European trading hours on Monday, as another investment bank slashed its price forecasts and investors braced for another week of potential market upheaval. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in February CLG5, +2.92%  traded at $48.17 a barrel in recent trade, down 63 cents, or 1.3%, in the Globex electronic session. March Brent crude LCOH5, +0.18%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell 52 cents, or 1%, to $49.63 a barrel."


FCPO- No Straight Line Here


Market is full of surprises, at least for my case. There is no telling whenever the trend is coming or it doesn't at all. I am talking about the recent weekly upside break out on FCPO April which made the price break above from previous high at 2,384 level. According to most text book or trend trading manual so to speak, most of these medium term to long term trader would to place their bet if the price manage to break out from certain high. I believe previous Friday break out was at least one week high and those who was targeted to go Long on the next break out would likely went in to Long position. Unfortunately, these types of trade only bring out small percentage of winning ratio. Most of these kind of break out does not rally to the next significant resistance level, example for this case, 2,400 point. What we have now is a heavy profit taking, retracement or whatever you can call it. The fact is, all of the gain made last week was wipe out in a few hours when the April contract strike down to 2,298. It is futile to find out what happen in the background of that drop because market is always evolve and changing. What we can do now, would be charter our next direction, do we bet all out on this retracement or do we wait for further rally to go Long / Short. The best thing to do now will be setting your position to Long at the previous Friday low around 2,300, placing tight stop loss and wait for the market to rally the next hour and eventually hitting the previous high if lucky. If unlucky, we might just cutting loss on a small margin. Vice versa if the market is going up, resistance is pegged around 2,348 for the moment. Set your Short position around that resistance area, place tight stop when your Short position filled and wait. Just wait  until your stop hit or hold overnight if the market is favoring you. That was part of the game plan if you wish to trade in this temporary ranging market.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2348
R1= 2326
S1= 2292
S2= 2280

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

FCPO: Some Difference In News And External Market 13th Jan 2015

Tuesday, 13th Jan 2015. Palm oil futures manage to recover on late of afternoon session after it retrace gradually on morning and early afternoon session. Soy oil dropped to 32.88 cents per pound or 2% yesterday. Other news to follow.

"-The U.S. stock market ended Monday's session with losses for the second straight trading day, as a renewed sell-off in oil once again hit investor confidence. Energy, technology and financials, which collectively comprise nearly half of the S&P 500, led the losses. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.81% closed down 16.52 points, or 0.8%, at 2,028.29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.54%dropped 96.53 points, or 0.5%, to 17,640.84. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.84%ended the day down 39.36 points, or 0.8%, at 4,664.71."

"-Oil futures plunged Monday, with the U.S. benchmark trading below the $46-a-barrel threshold for the first time in nearly six years after Goldman Sachs cut its crude outlook, predicting prices will remain low for a lengthy period. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for February delivery CLG5, -1.52%  fell $2.29, or 4.7%, to close at $46.07 a barrel after trading as low as $45.90. The close was the lowest since April 2009. The move followed a 0.9% loss during Friday’s regular session on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI futures are down more than 57% from a June 2014 high of $107.26 a barrel. Meanwhile, Brent North Sea crude oil for February LCOG5, -5.81% the global benchmark, lost $2.68, or 5.4%, to $47.43 a barrel, its lowest finish since March 2009."




FCPO- The Market Is Deciding The Next Path, Hang In There.



Lets get straight to the point, palm oil futures is looking for further recovery as suggested on the longer term chart. Steady higher lows and higher highs can be spotted on hourly chart and these significant candle likely indicate price is positive to rise further. Maybe the right question would be, where would it continue to rise for this week. The answer will always be no one would know for sure, it is the trader's job to make sure he/she is part of that move, period. Most traders would want to relate yesterday substantial surge on afternoon session were likely due to palm oil production that slump about 22% for Dec vs Nov 2014, it was the lowest since 2006. Palm oil slow production was linked to worst flood on the eastern coast and southern part of Malaysia, the catastrophe just stop last week. With such a big dropped in production, it is likely support price from falling too steep, at least for this week. On the negative side, Soy oil for March contract plunge to 32.88 cents from 33.40 cents yesterday. We are going to see lower opening for March contract today, estimating at around 10 points to 20 points lower. Fortunately, the Bears have to work harder to change current Bullish sentiment to short term correction. Today, support level would be place around yesterday low, which is around 2,325 level. Bear in mind that the market might ignore most positive news if the price went down below 2,320 level this week. We are likely to see more correction if the March contract retrace lower than 2,320 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2397
R1=2379
S1= 2335
S2= 2309
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

FCPO: The Journey Is Still North From Here 6th Jan 2015

Tuesday, 6th Jan 2015. Time really flew and today is already the sixth day of 2015. Palm oil futures is believe to heading North for the moment judging from the ability for the benchmark contract to breach slightly above 2,300.

"-U.S. stocks were clobbered Monday in an indiscriminate sell-off triggered by a renewed plunge in crude oil prices and surging dollar, which left the Dow and the S&P with their worst losses since OctoberThe S&P 500 SPX, -1.83%  closed off session lows but still suffered its largest one-day decline in three months. The index also suffered its longest losing streak in a 12-month period, falling for the fourth-straight session. The benchmark index lost 37.62 points, or 1.8%, to 2,020.58. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.86%  also had its worst down day since October, with 28 of its 30 components closing with losses. The blue-chip index dropped 331.34 points, or 1.9%, to 17,501.65. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.57%  shed 74.24 points, or 1.6%, to 4,652.57, while Russell 2000 RUT, -1.46%  closed down preliminary 15 points, or 1.3%, to 1,183."

"-Mainland Chinese stocks rallied to their highest close in more than five years on Monday, the first trading day of the new year, led by strength in the energy and real-estate sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +3.58%  popped up 3.6% to end at 3,350.52, marking its biggest daily percentage gain in a month. In the previous trading session last week, the index also finished higher, ending 2014 as the world’s top-performing major equity market with an annual gain of 52%."
"-Oil futures fell Monday, stretching their losing streak to a third session and hitting their lowest levels in more than five years on concerns over a surging U.S. dollar and nagging worries of growing oil supplies. Light, sweet crude for delivery in February fell $2.65, or 5%, to settle at $50.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices traded as low as $49.77 a barrel earlier in the session. The settlement was the lowest for a front-month crude contract since April 28, 2009. Prices have lost 7.5% over the last three sessions. February Brent on London’s ICE Futures exchange  declined $3.31, or 5.9%, to end at $53.11 a barrel, the lowest settlement since May 1, 2009. Brent has lost 8.3% over the past three sessions."


FCPO- Bulls Next Hurdle, 2,310.



Palm oil futures is running on North side for now despite weaker soy oil price. The most actively traded March contract manage to breached above 2,300 for the first time since early December 2014. Some may agree that recent hiking in palm oil futures is likely linked to bad flood and poor weather condition in Southern and eastern area in Malaysia. That might somehow be true as not only the production is likely to slow down, local logistic system is also affected. Slowing production would eventually reduce stocks level but we still have a great length to expect production to slow down. Majority producers are likely taking advantage of low or zero export tax for the moment and that's explain production level is likely staying unchanged for the next few month. Another reason to cheer for palm oil futures to recover would be seasonal event such as Chinese new year celebration and this event will also slightly increase Soy oil import for China. Back to chart outlook, the March is doing well holding its gain for now, and the next step for further recovery would taking out the previous high at 2,310 level. Unless this event materialize, we are likely to see resilient price action ranging from 2,290 to 2,250 level, at least for this week. Unfortunately, market is likely going back to sideways market if the March contract dive down below 2,200 level. Keep looking for sign of weakness on 30 minutes time frame if the March unable to breach 2,310 level after a few attempt. It will be a good way to abandon Long position by then. For today, pivot point for support is located around

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2308
R1=2285
S1=2250
S2=2238
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

FCPO: Flood On Southern Might Support On The Way Up 30 Dec 2014

Tuesday, 30 Dec 2014. Palm oil futures gap up about 1.8% on opening bell yesterday, it was the biggest gap for the past four months. This rally does caught some trader off guard when they are still using sideways /ranging technique to trade last week. Other news to follow.

"- The S&P 500 edged up to another record close on Monday, but the Dow industrials snapped a seven-session winning streak. Utilities, the best-performing S&P sector this year, showed the biggest gain among the 10 main sectors on Monday. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.09% rose by 1.80 points, or 0.1%, to close at 2,090.57, leaving the benchmark up 13.1% for 2014, with two trading sessions left in the year. Monday’s mark also was the index’s 53rd record close of the year, or an average of one a week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.09% dipped 15.48 points, or 0.1%, to end at 18,038.23. The blue-chip gauge, up 8.8% so far in 2014, pulled back from a record close achieved Friday. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.00%  inched up by 0.05 point to finish at 4,806.91, while the small-cap Russell 2000 RUT, +0.32% tacked on 3.90 points, or 0.3%, to 1,219.11."

"- Hong Kong stocks jumped Monday morning, playing catch-up with the Shanghai markets after returning from a four-day weekend. The Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.34% gained 1.9% after recent reports said China's central bank had changed its rules to allow deposits from non-bank financial institutions to count as reserves, a measure aimed at increasing lending and boosting growth. The Hang Seng China Enterprises, tracking mainland-China-based companies, advanced 4.1%."

"- Gold prices pulled back Monday after some wide swings during Christmas week. Gold for February delivery GCG5, +0.33%  fell $13.40, or 1.1%, to settle at $1,181.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Silver for March deliverySIH5, +0.55%  also fell, slipping nearly 37 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $15.78 an ounce."


FCPO- Bulls Are Leaping Ahead. 

Palm oil futures is likely running on positive note after the flood condition on southern Malaysia and east coast are likely to prolong. Current weather condition is likely disturb production and logistic system for the moment. Price is likely supported by the reduced production for final month of 2014 but we are still yet sure whether this rally could turn to be an uptrend. If we are going to expect some steady recovery for palm oil, crude oil and Soy oil have to provide support as well in the longer run. Back to the palm oil technical outlook, we might be looking at continuous rally after the promising break out from two weeks resistance for benchmark March contract, yesterday. There is no telling when will the gap from 2,252 to 2,285 could be fill but if the march contract does open lower or drop lower than 2,284 level, we are likely to see some mild retracement from that level. These gap area will become resilient for the price to adjust up and down, but I am expecting the benchmark March to find support at around 2,250 level this week. Else, if the benchmark March continue to rally from here, there is no telling where is the next resistance will be and yes we might be expecting at least another 100 points rally. For today, pivot support for the March contract is located around 2,276 while resistance is pegged at 2,317.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2317
R1= 2301
S1= 2276
S2= 2267
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Merry Christmas And Hello 2015

Merry Christmas and happy holiday to all the traders and readers !!


Tuesday, December 23, 2014

FCPO: Holiday Mood Until The Early Of Feb ? 23rd Dec 2014

Tuesday, 23rd Dec 2014. Palm oil futures is running on undecided path, moving in and out from week high to week low since early November. Other news to follow. 

"- The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average ended Monday at new records, fueled by continued hopes that the Federal Reserve won’t be in a rush to raise interest rates.
The main indexes booked their fourth straight day of gains, abetted by a central bank that last week reassured investors it will be “patient” about the timing and pace of rate hikes. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.38%  gained 7.9 points, or 0.4%, to 2,078.55, closing at a record for the 50th time this year. This is the highest number of record closes in a year since 1995. Gains in technology and telecom stocks outweighed sharp losses in energy and health-care companies. Gains were even larger for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.87% which rose 154.64 points, or 0.9%, to 17,959.44. The blue-chip index closed at a record for the 35th time in 2014. All but three of its 30 components ended with gains. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.34%  ended 16 points, or 0.3%, higher at 4,781.42."
"-Asian stocks were mostly higher Monday, taking their cues from greater stability in crude oil prices and the Russian ruble, along with the Federal Reserve’s indication it will take a slow approach to raising interest rates. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.61%  was up 1.5% to 5420.90 and the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -1.78%  up 1.2% at 3144.61 as concerns eased over further instability in global market conditions. Japan’s Nikkei NIK, +0.08%  treaded above and below the break-even level, a possible indication that it may be difficult to retain upward momentum after three consecutive gaining sessions in Tokyo last week. At midday, it had edged higher to 17621.66 amid thin trading."

"-Oil prices slumped again on Monday, as comments about maintaining production from several OPEC ministers sparked a renewed selloff. Saudi Energy Minister Ali al-Naimi said the Persian Gulf nation will maintain its oil production and may even increase it if a new client emerges. The comment is the latest signal that the largest oil producer is unlikely to cut production in response to a massive drop in prices. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in February   CLG5, +0.69%  gave up earlier gains and settled $1.75, or 3%, lower at $55.38 a barrel. February Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange  LCOG5, +0.27% reversed earlier gains and was trading slightly above $60 a barrel."

FCPO- No Blardy Direction Yet


There is always some direction in the smaller time, but I doubt there is any good direction if you are looking at hourly chart and above for the moment. Most of the trend following indicators are having tough time deciding which one will provide ample return to the position. Ample return would mean enough juice to provide those trend trader at least 100 points profit, at least in my case. A generic trend following indicators may require price to move at least 150 points to 250 points from the trade to turn to be a profitable one. This is because market need to move in line with the break out / break down or after it breached a new high / new low for at least 150 points for the trend following system to pick up the trade and ride it. It is a long shot for most people and choose not to use trend following because of the low hit rate or low winning rate. Most of the trend followers would felt their system is highly tested from November and maybe until the beginning of Feb 2015 as there would be no promising trend to pursuit at that time. Back to the outlook, the March contract is likely open slightly lower today judging on Soy oil weaker price. Range for this week is likely to be 2,190 ~ 2,130 and there is less likely price would move in line even after this range has been broken. In other words, it is unlikely to see any conviction move even if the March contract manage to breach above 2,190 or break below 2,130. Conclusively, market is still trapped in sideways mode this year.

Daily Pivot Point 
R2= 2187
R1= 2178
S1= 2156
S2= 2143
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Monday, December 15, 2014

FCPO: Painful Range 16th Dec 2014

Tueday, 16th Dec 2014. Palm oil futures end slightly lower yesterday despite some recovery made on Soy oil on Asia trading session. It does not look like decouple but better be alert than sorry. Other news to follow.

"-The U.S. stock market ended Monday’s volatile session lower, as an unabated fall in oil prices continued to erode investor confidence. Traders attributed wild swings in the indexes to a combination of factors, including ‘quadruple witching’ event — the week during which various index futures and options expire, unwinding of large positions by funds and uncertainty surrounding crude oil prices which resumed their slide after a brief rebound. The initial bounce in oil ahead of the regular market open prompted a rally in European stock markets. But as crude fell to new lows, the mood turned gloomy, with major exchanges finishing lower. Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.58%  jumped more than 100 points shortly after the market open but ended 100 points, or 0.6%, lower at 17,180.84. The S&P 500’s SPX, -0.63% traded in a 29 point range, but ended 12.60 points, or 0.6% lower at 1,989.63. Utilities and financials were the biggest decliners, while all 10 sectors finished with losses. The energy sector began the day sharply higher, but ended 0.8% lower."


"- Japanese stocks tumbled Monday to their lowest level in four weeks, tracking U.S. losses at the end of last week. The Nikkei Average NIK, -1.72%  declined 1.6% to 17,099.40, its lowest settlement since mid-November. The broader Topix I0000, +0.03%  ended down 1.5%, with the yen USDJPY, +0.07%  rising to ¥118.27 against the dollar from ¥118.83 in the prior session. On Monday, the quarterly tankan survey by Japan’s central bank showed the country’s manufacturers are becoming more cautious about the future. Earlier, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling coalition won a majority in the parliamentary elections on Sunday. Most other major Asian markets also suffered losses. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng IndexHSI, -0.95%  lost 1%, extending a three-day losing streak, as a research report from China’s central bank projected the country’s economic growth could decrease to 7.1% next year on slowing property investment. In Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.35%  finished down 0.6%, while Seoul’s Kospi Composite Index SEU, -0.61%  dipped 0.1%. However, on mainland China, the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +0.52%posted modest gains, settling 0.5% higher."

"- Oil bears have had a lot to be joyous about since midyear but it might just be the season to start booking profits on those short bets, Deutsche Bank’s top asset allocation strategist said Monday. In a note, Deutsche Bank’s chief strategist Binky Chadha identified three factors that had led Deutsche to recommend short positions back in June. Those three factors that earlier supported making betting that crude oil prices are on the decline now argue for short covering, he said. Here they are:The overvaluation gap has closed: In June, oil prices were 45% above fair value. Now, even though fair value for New York Mercantile -traded, WTI crude oil has dropped from around $80 to $58 thanks to a sharp rise in the dollar, the large fall in oil futures CLF5, -0.66%  have closed the overvaluation gap (see chart at top of page), Chadha noted. Nymex WTI futures closed Monday at a five-year low of $55.91, down more than 48% from its June high near $107 a barrel."


FCPO- Still Going Nowhere For Trend


Palm oil futures is not making any good sign yet in terms on running on any trend. Less and less sign of where it is going to head next. Export for 1-15th Dec vs Nov 2014 was reported slightly positive with just about 2% to 3% higher. Put the news aside, most of us know medium to long term traders are having very hard time since November 2014 which there is no promising trend to ride. Market quickly return to stubborn range when it hit new high or new low, and it kept repeating this incident more than sixth times in a row. Who to blame ? I rarely sees this is anyone's fault but rather unavoidable market condition that can occur over and over again without us knowing it early on. There is no way to tell either any of the trend trades would work or not, you would just have to execute it and find out. The only we can reduce or minimize losses within this ranging market would be not to trade at all or being super picky about taking a trade and trade significantly less. Other way would be waiting for more confirmation such as going into the trade later than usual, but that also would not stopping any trader from getting losses. A successful trade will be how well that trader can exploits the market condition at that particular time and execute his/her plan due diligently. Back to palm oil futures outlook, we are still travelling within a flexible range within 2,300 and 2,100 for the moment. I doubt the benchmark month would move with conviction after it hit a new high or new low for this year. We will be likely looking at no strong movement throughout until Jan or Feb next year.  For today, pivot support for the new benchmark March will be 2,149 while resistance is pegged at 2,183.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2203
R1= 2183
S1= 2149
S2= 2135
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

FCPO: There Is Still No Visible Trend, None 9th Dec 2014

Tuesday, 9th Dec 2014. Palm oil futures went down significantly after made it to new high above 2,200. The gains was short lived after it head down to settle at 2,171 yesterday, wiping out most of the gains made earlier. Other news to follow.


"- U.S. stocks suffered their biggest one-day slide in nearly seven weeks on Monday as a withering selloff among energy companies, which closely tracked oil’s continued price slide, dragged down key benchmark indexes. Downbeat economic reports form China, Japan and Europe also dented sentiment. Nervousness among investors was evident from a jump in 10-year Treasury yields, rising five basis points and a 20% jump in the CBOE Vix index, commonly knows as Wall Street’s fear gauge. S&P 500 SPX, -0.73%  closed 15 points, or 0.75, at 2,060.31. Losses were led by energy companies, as the sector dropped 3.9%. Materials, industrials and technology sector stocks also sold off, while defensive sectors such as utilities and health care drew buyers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.59%  dropped as much as 150 points at session lows, but ended 106.31 points, or 0.6% lower, at 17,852.48. McDonald’s Corp. MCD, -3.84% took a bite out of the blue-chip stock index followingdisappointing sales. Oil giants ExxonMobil Corp. XOM, -2.26%  and Chevron Corp CVX, -3.67%   also weighed on the index, dropping 2.3% and 3.7% respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.84%  ended the day with a loss of 40 points, or 0.8%, at 4,740.69. The heaviest-weighted component of the index, Apple Inc. AAPL, -2.26%   fell 2.3%."

"- Global oil production is concentrated among a handful of giant producer countries and about a dozen more which produce more than 1 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. For 2013, the U.S. averaged 7.45 million barrels per day of crude oil production, third behind Russia and Saudi Arabia. However, U.S. production has been surging thanks to fracking technologies that free up oil trapped in shale formations. Total U.S. crude oil production averaged 8.9 million barrels per day in October, according to the EIA and is expected to top 9 million barrels a day in December."

"-Palm oil/Vegoils: Market factors to watch Dec 9 Tuesday

KUALA LUMPUR: The following factors are likely to influence Malaysian palm oil futures and other vegetable oil markets on Tuesday.

FUNDAMENTALS
* Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Monday after crude markets dived to five-year lows, forcing the tropical oil to give up earlier gains which had
stemmed from the ringgit plunging to its weakest since Sept. 2009. 
* Concerns about tight U.S. soy supplies drove soybean futures to their highest level in more than a week on Monday, while corn futures retreated for the first time in four sessions. 
* Oil dived 4 percent to new five-year lows on Monday, as Wall Street expectations of a deeper price slump next year and a Kuwaiti prediction for $65 crude set off one of the biggest declines this year. 

MARKET NEWS
* U.S. and European stocks fell on Monday after weak Chinese and Japanese data stoked worries about slowing global economic growth, while oil prices sank to five-year lows on expectations of oversupply into 2015."



FCPO- There Are Not Enough Conviction For Any Strong Move


I bet most of the major traders in local commodity and also in other major commodities market are taking a big long holiday break. There reason why I would say that would be the inactivity or less big movement in the FCPO market for the past four to six weeks and this month will be the last month for Dec. Most of the traders I know will be off to clearing leave or just taking a break from trading at this moment, maybe until the start of first quarter of 2015. Maybe that is just my opinion but that "less active" movement pattern in the market has been repeating for the same old time over and over again. Back to the market outlook, we are still likely travelling within a sideways range, there would be less likely any follow thru commitment when the price hit new high or went down to new weekly low. You can expect price went back to previous day close once it make new high or new low for this period. This is also known as sideways market where most traders were just staying on high alert or conservative mode throughout this month and maybe next month as well. For this week, we are likely looking at 2,140 to 2,215 range for the benchmark month. No tale to tell for those who trade by trend, we will just have to suck it up and hope we can survive this sideways market until February 2015. For today, pivot support level is located around 2,147 while resistance is pegged at 2,193.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2,215
R1= 2,193
S1= 2,159
S2= 2,147
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.