Welcome To Malaysiafutures.com

Stay tune for more recent Futures market updates on news and various in depth analysis.

You Ask For It, You Got It !!

Yes, you heard it right. Traders can now access to both local and global equities market right at your fingertips !!

Bursa Gold Futures Is Now Available !!!

Get ready for ultimate all in one trade station, trade FCPO, FKLI and the new FGLD (Gold Futures) under the same user friendly platform. Click for more !!

Foreign Futures Is Available

Expand your trading portfolio to foreign market, ranging from HKFE, CBOT, NYSE, NYBOT. SGX, EUREX and much more utilizing J-Trader by Patsystem™.

Fully Online Trading Platform

Trade Malaysia Futures contract with full confidence with real time data stream online, no re-quotes, no delay anywhere. Call 03-7717 3290 today !!

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

FCPO: Soy Oil Will Provide Further GuideThis Week 7th July 2014

Tuesday, 10th July 2014. This will be the second week of July, early third quarter of the year and most edible commodities futures have yet had a good trend run so far. We are likely to see palm oil open gap down today due to sudden Soy oil weakness. Other news to follow.

"-The U.S. stocks closed modestly higher on Wednesday after the FOMC minutes revealed that policy-makers decided to end the Fed’s bond purchases by October if the economy stays on track. The Fed plans to end purchases altogether with a final reduction of $15 billion at its October meeting, after trimming it by $10 billion at each meeting up to that point, while keeping the rates near zero for a considerable time. Investors took that as a bullish sign and pushed prices higher. The S&P 500 SPX +0.46%  gained 9.12 points, or 0.5%, to 1,972.83. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.47%  closed 79 points, or 0.5%, higher at 16,985.61. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.63%  rose 27.57 points, or 0.6%, to 4,419.03."

"- Tracking losses in the U.S. markets, Hong Kong stocks on Wednesday tumbled after China’s consumer inflation and wholesale deflation both eased in June. China’s consumer-price index rose 2.3% in June from a year ago moderating from a 2.5% year-over-year increase in May and slightly below than the 2.4% gain projected in separate Dow Jones News Wires and Reuters surveys of economists. Meanwhile, the producer-price index dropped 1.1% from a year earlier, compared with a 1.4% decline in May. The Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -1.55%   lost 1.6% at the close, falling the most since June 24. It logged the lowest closing level in about two weeks, dragged down by banks and tech stocks."


"-Palm Futures Retreat

KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices closed lower yesterday tracking the decline in crude oil futures and also due to the stronger ringgit against the US dollar, a dealer said. Phillip Futures specialist, David Ng, said the prices were traded lower following weakness in Chicago Board of Trade soya oil and global crude oil prices. July 2014 slipped RM13 to RM2,440, August 2014 shed RM17 to RM2,396, September 2014 fell RM11 to RM2,373 and October 2014 decreased RM17 to RM2,358 a tonne. Volume rose to 49,488 lots from 39,418 lots, while open interest rose to 261,210 contracts versus 247,191 previously.On the physical market, July South fell RM5 to RM2,460 a tonne. Bernama"


FCPO- News Alone Does Not Cut It

With less or no surprise on the palm oil fundamental news, market is likely turning to soy oil for further hint of direction. In this information age, most traders did know how and where to get information about the underlying instrument they are trading at, and for this case report and survey about palm oil stockpiles, export and productions are easily available in the internet. With these information easily available and vastly distributed, you can expect market to be traded efficiently, but not entirely efficient all the time. There is nothing worth mention about palm oil fundamental so far at this point as slow rising demand could not help in time to reduce stockpiles increment and steady production will make condition worse. When there is less interesting at the external side, traders will shift to Soy oil or using technical analysis for most of us. Hence, with recent weakness on Soy oil closing value, palm oil futures is likely open lower today. The most active traded Soy oil contract was traded at 37.16 cents per pound as the time of writing today, about 0.40 cents lower than yesterday 6.00PM GMT value. Back to palm oil futures, the Sept contract need to at least breach above 2,400 level in order to revive some positive momentum that would last for a few sessions. If this event  does not materialize this on next week, we are likely to see the Sept contract tumble further if the final support 2,350 area is taken out. Overall, technical outlook on Sept contract is still weak as small rally does not do any favor for the Bulls to revive and market is likely heading down further if it breach below 2,360~2,363 level today. Pivot support for Sept contract is located around 2,363  follow by 2,352 while resistance is pegged at 2,427.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2392
R1=2383
S1=2363
S2=2352
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, July 3, 2014

FCPO: Holding Up,But Not For Long 3rd July 2014

Thursday, 3rd July 2014. Pal moil futures recover slightly yesterday as Soy oil futures hold steady around 39 cents per pound but all that might change to Bearish soon. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks mostly inched higher Wednesday, building slightly on the prior day’s sizeable advance, as a better-than-expected report on private-sector hiring underscored the economy’s recent strength. The Dow industrials DJIA +0.12%  rose 20.17 points, or 0.1%, to end at 16,976.24, putting it once again within striking distance of 17,000, while the S&P 500 SPX +0.07%  nudged up 1.30 points, or 0.1%, to finish at 1,974.62. Each index scored a record close for the second straight day.
The Nasdaq COMP -0.02%  bucked Wednesday’s positive trend, falling 0.92 point, or less than 0.1%, to close at 4,457.73. The tech-heavy index snapped a three-session winning streak."
"-Gold futures on Wednesday found some support, as traders stretched the metal’s price advance to a fourth session in a row, reluctant to sell the precious metal ahead of Thursday’s much-anticipated monthly U.S. jobs report and a long holiday weekend. Gold scored gains even after a stronger-than-expected estimate of U.S. private-sector payrolls fed expectations for a strong employment report. August gold futures GCQ4 -0.35%  tacked on $4.30, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,330.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices, which tallied a gain of nearly $10 an ounce over the past three trading sessions, settled at their highest since March 21, based on the most-active contracts."

"-China Palm Oil Imports Seen Falling on Slower Economy
By Bloomberg News  Jun 23, 2014 4:13 PM GMT+0800 
Palm oil purchases by China, the second-biggest buyer, may decline by about 11 percent this year as economic expansion slows and banks tighten lending to commodity importers, a survey shows.
Imports may fall to 5.9 million metric tons in the 12 months to Sept. 30 from a year earlier, according to the median of five researchers and traders surveyed by Bloomberg News. That’s steeper than the 4.4 percent drop to 6.3 million tons estimated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on June 11. China’s first-quarter gross domestic product growth slowed to 7.4 percent, the weakest pace since 2012. Declining Chinese purchases may further weaken the price of the commodity traded in Kuala Lumpur, which has slipped 8.2 percent this year as demand for the edible oil fell. It has been a favored vehicle for Chinese traders who use commodities as collateral to obtain credit and this may begin to change amid a probe at Qingdao port that will make banks more stringent about lending, Liu said. “Palm oil is used commercially rather than in homes, making it more sensitive to the slower economy,” said Liu Xianwu, general manager at researcher China Cereals & Oils Business Net. “With less commodity-finance lending and abundant soybeans, there’s no reason for imports to increase.” Crude palm oil for delivery in September rose 1.4 percent to 2,477 ringgit ($770) a ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives at 4:03 p.m. in Beijing. Refined palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 1.6 percent to 6,034 yuan ($969) per ton, with the most-active contract losing 0.1 percent this year.
Quality Control
China’s palm oil imports rose to a record 6.6 million tons last marketing year partly because traders rushed to get shipments in before the introduction of stricter quality requirements on Jan. 1, Liu said. Rising imports of soybeans also cut the market share of palm oil, according to Liu. On average, 19 percent of the yield from crushed soy beans is oil, said Liu. Soybean shipments into China increased 31 percent in October to May from a year ago, customs data show. That added about 2 million tons of soybean oil into supplies of cooking oil, according to calculations by Bloomberg News."


FCPO: We Are Yet Out Of The Woods 

The probably reason for the palm oil futures to tumble was due to dry weather condition, and perhaps its rival oil prices that move so far. But for the remaining of this first week of July, palm oil futures is susceptible for further price drop. Volume was not recorded higher for yesterday recovery and this would likely mean most of the Short holders are still in the market, probably waiting for adding up their Short position when the price going lower. On the external side, demand is not something we can count on anymore with merely few 5% reported higher on Jun vs May 2014, supplies will be sitting on record high again. Not only that, more reason behind palm oil futures price cool down would include price weakness from Soy oil due to steady production increament on South America, and weak demand for palm oil itself even Ramadhan festive season is just weeks away. However, palm oil futures would not tumble swiftly as dry weather condition would likely curb price from falling too fast. Technically, major Bearish signal is likely appear if the benchmark Sept breach below 2,400 today and form another lower low if it breach lower than 2,385, previous Tuesday low. All these support level are the sign that most Short holder would look whether to hold their position or to exit part of their positions while liquidating their Short positions if the Sept contract manage to breach above 2,436~2,439 level. For today, pivot support for Sept contract is located around 2,408 while resistance is pegged at 2,439.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2453
R1= 2439
S1= 2408
S2= 2391
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

FCPO: Bulls Turned Down South 1st July 2014

Tuesday, 1st July 2014. Palm oil futures retrace for another session yesterday amid lack luster increment in export figures, other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks ended June and the second quarter higher, even as the broader market closed marginally lower on Monday.
The S&P 500 recorded the fifth consecutive month of gains and the biggest second-quarter gain since 2009. The benchmark index SPX -0.04%  closed less than a point lower at 1,960.19, gaining 3.9% over the month and 5% over the quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.15%  shed 25.24 points, or 0.2%, to 16,825.96, but gained 1.9% over the past month and 2.2% over the past quarter. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.23%  defied the trend and ended the day 10.25 points, or 0.2%, higher at 4,408.18. The tech-heavy index gained 3.9% in June and 5% over the past quarter. "
"-Mistry Sees Palm Rallying Less on El Nino Delay, Biofuel
By Ranjeetha Pakiam and Swansy Afonso  Jun 27, 2014 1:26 PM GMT+0800
Palm oil, the most-used cooking oil, may rally less than an earlier forecast as demand for biodiesel trails estimates and an El Nino starts later than expected, said Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd.
Futures may climb to 2,800 ringgit ($873) a metric ton by December if the weather event occurs from mid-August, Mistry said, scaling back his March 5 forecast for a run-up to as much as 3,500 ringgit. Palm may trade between 2,300 ringgit and 2,500 ringgit in the next few weeks, temporarily reaching 2,600 ringgit if a dry period in Southeast Asia extends beyond the next two weeks, he said at a conference in Mumbai.
Prices in Kuala Lumpur have retreated from an 18-month high in March as rising output from Indonesia and Malaysia, the largest producers, add to record global cooking oil supplies. The failure of Indonesia and Malaysia to absorb additional quantities of biodiesel has disappointed palm oil prices, Mistry said yesterday. Cheaper palm may help extend a decline in global food costs amid forecasts for the El Nino that often roils global agriculture markets. “Production of palm oil has been better than expected since February,” Mistry said, according to prepared remarks. “If the El Nino turns out to be mild and delayed, as many weathermen are predicting of late, palm oil production will turn out to be better than my earlier estimates.”

Biggest Producers
Indonesia may produce 30.5 million tons or more this year while Malaysia’s output will total 19.7 million to 19.9 million tons, more than the March forecast of as much as 19.7 million tons, said Mistry, who’s traded vegetable oils for more than three decades. The two Southeast Asian producers together account for about 86 percent of world supplies.
Futures traded 1.1 percent lower at 2,444 ringgit a ton by midday break on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives today. Prices jumped to 2,916 ringgit on March 11, the highest level since September 2012. Mistry, who in November correctly forecast palm oil would trade from 2,600 ringgit to 2,900 ringgit through March, said his price outlook is based on the assumption that Brent crude oil trades in a range of $100-$120 a barrel. “Prices will depend very much on the development and the severity of El Nino in the medium term,” Mistry said. “Palm has become far too dependent on biodiesel demand and that is an unreliable, opportunistic and sporadic market.”

El Nino Alert
A moderate El Nino would reduce output by as much as 12 percent in Malaysia, according to IOI Corp. (IOI) An event as severe as the one in 1997-1998 may cut production by as much as 15 percent, Chief Executive Officer Lee Yeow Chor estimates. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says disruptions associated with El Ninos have been most important for palm oil, coffee and sugar.
The event, caused by the periodic warming of the tropical Pacific, brings drought to the Asia-Pacific region and heavier-than-usual rains to South America. Australia remains on El Nino alert even as a slowing in Pacific Ocean warming may push back its onset to September, the Bureau of Meteorology said June 17.
There’s a 60 percent chance that an El Nino will set in by the end of August, the World Meteorological Organization said yesterday. The probability of the phenomenon becoming established by the end of December rises to as high as 80 percent, the United Nations agency said in a statement.

‘Hot Spots’
“El Nino may be delayed, but we’re already experiencing dry weather,” said Alvin Tai, an analyst at RHB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur, who’s covered the plantations industry for 10 years. “We are already seeing hot spots developing in Sumatra and West Malaysia, so that means rain has not been sufficient,” possibly hurting production later, he said. The southwest monsoon, which started on May 15 and may last until September, will generally be a dry season for Malaysia, according to the Malaysian Meteorological Department.  Palm’s rally in March, caused by a dry period in Southeast Asia in February, reduced its appeal as a feedstock for biodiesel and discouraged its use in Indonesia, Mistry said. The country’s use of palm biodiesel in the first five months of this year is roughly the same as in the same period a year earlier, and full-year consumption will not increase, he said. “We are told this is due to a lack of infrastructure for blending and handling,” said Mistry. “While this may be one reason, the real reason could be the high price of CPO and the lack of competitiveness of biodiesel in 2014.”  Global food costs dropped 1.2 percent last month and are 3.2 percent lower than a year ago, according to a gauge of 55 food items tracked by the Rome-based Food & Agriculture Organization.



FCPO- It Is Hammer Time


Short term trend has turned to Bearish this week as the benchmark Sept crossed down below previous support trend line and never attempt to recover. Remember I mentioned previously the support trend line at 2,470 will serve as first defense line for the Bulls to survive, well now the defense line have broken. Never-mind other indication you can see on the market, the benchmark Sept is likely heading down further judging from yesterday price action. Lower high and lower low have formed on hourly chart. With these Bearish candle formation formed, traders are likely to expect negative price action throughout this week. I am also aware that there are palm oil analyst that predicts the price would go to 2,800 ish by December. It will serve as a good entertainment read on those headlines. Junior or seasoned analyst can come with price numbers anyway they can come up with, but that was a long shot. And I do not have any expectation for long shot nor I would use it to trade. One thing I am grateful to have analyst would be forth telling their weather expectation in the future, that is all I got use for them. Back to the technical reading, we are likely looking at more weakness if the benchmark Sept manage to breach below 2,420 level today. It is very likely judging on overnight Soy oil futures that closed at 39.05 level as the time of writing this morning. Soy oil 0.95 cents is substantial enough to force palm oil futures to open at least 15 points lower. With this Bearish expectation of opening, long holders have to beware that the worst is only beginning, market can trade even lower this week. With Bearish soy oil futures, psychological support at 2,400 would be easily taken out today and there is no telling how low for the Sept contract would go, 2,380 would be my first stop for the moment. For today, pivot support for Sept contract is located around 2,409 while resistance is pegged at 2,437.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2449
R1= 2437
S1= 2417
S2= 2409
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, June 26, 2014

FCPO: Still Running On Positive Note 26th Jun 2014

Thursday, 26th Jun 2014. Palm oil futures for Sept contract break the 2,500 silence easily and rose up to 2,511 level but ended slightly short at 2,482 level. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks finished higher Wednesday, recovering from a weak revision of first-quarter economic performance, as media stocks got a lift from a Supreme Court ruling and refinery stocks wobbled on a weakening of an oil export ban. The S&P 500 SPX +0.49% rose 9.55 points, or 0.5%, to end at 1,959.53, according to preliminary FactSet data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.29% gained 49.38 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 16,867.51. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.68% climbed 29.40 points, or 0.7%, to close at 4,379.76. The S&P 500 and Dow both snapped two-day skids, but remain down for the week after closing at record levels on Friday."

 "-HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Asian stocks ended mostly higher on Tuesday, and Japan’s Nikkei Average nudged higher to hit another five-month high. Investors were waiting for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to unveil a package of economic reforms, known as the “third arrow” of Abenomics, after the market close. In the meantime, Japan’s Nikkei Average JP:NIK +0.17%   rose for a second straight day, edging up 0.1% to its highest settlement in five months. The broader Topix indexJP:I0000 +0.17%   also inched 0.1% higher. The yen USDJPY -0.13%   softened against the dollar, trading at ¥101.952 from ¥101.905 in the prior session. Hong Kong and Shanghai stocks recovered losses from Monday, with the Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.06%   and the Shanghai Composite Index CN:SHCOMP -0.41%   up 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. South Korea’s Kospi index KR:SEU +0.58%   gained 1%. However, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.52%   fell 0.4%, weighed by banking stocks.""-


"- Oil futures climbed on Wednesday, with the U.S. benchmark logging the first gain in three sessions after the Obama administration loosened a ban on crude exports. Prices saw some pressure during the session after government data early Wednesday showed U.S. durable goods fell by 1% in May and the economy shrank more than previously expected in the first quarter, while U.S. crude inventories rose last week. Crude oil for August delivery CLQ4 +0.14%  climbed 47 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $106.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after tapping a high of $107.50 in electronic trading overnight. Just ahead of the government supply data, the contract was at $105.85."

FCPO- Bulls Are Still Controlling The Game

Yes, that is correct, the Bulls are still hanging around in the market even though we saw some profit taking activities towards the closing bell yesterday. Nothing the freak the Long holder out yet as last hour market retrace in an uptrend market is deem normal condition. Short term trader that Longed might take some of the profit out when the market hit 2,500 barrier yesterday, a level that most Long positions holders would take their profit. We should be looking at further market retracement if the benchmark Sept does go down below 2,461 level this week. If that event does not materialize, Long setup is still good to take on. The good side is, the 1-25th Jun vs May 2014 export figure was reported slightly better with 3% rose by ITS surveyor. Palm oil price should be supported by dry weather season too for the moment and steady soy oil price likely help cushion any steep retracement as well. Technically, the benchmark Sept first support trend line will be shown on hourly chart above. Do not get freak out if the Sept contract does fall below this support trend line around 2,478 as we are likely expect it to rebound back to recovery after that. It would be a minor pullback, which is healthy in any uptrend but things might get a bit uglier if the last support line at 2,461 would be taken out as well. Conservative traders might want to place their Long order around 2,465~68, stop loss around 2,455 level and expect 15~20 points gain from your entry level. For this week, pivot support for Sept contract is located around 2,461 while resistance is pegged around 2,501.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2521
R1= 2501
S1= 2471
S2= 2461
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

FCPO: Heading Above 2,487 level 24th Jun 2014.

Tuesday, 24th Jun 2014. Palm oil futures for Sept contract went up to 2,488 level yesterday amid support from its rival oil, Soya bean oil futures. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks ended Monday’s session marginally lower, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average pausing after six straight days of modest gains. Some analysts said stock markets were overextended after hitting record levels last week. Economic data released on Monday were positive, but not strong enough to lift the mood. The main benchmarks traded in a narrow range, while the CBOE Vix index remained below 11. The S&P 500 SPX -0.01%  closed less than a point lower at 1,962.61. The Dow industrials DJIA -0.06% shed 9.82 points, or 0.1%, to 16,937.26. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.02% ended the day less than a point higher at 4,368.68.

"-Asian stocks ended mixed on Monday after HSBC’s preliminary reading on China’s manufacturing activity surprised to upside. The HSBC flash China manufacturing Purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 50.8 in June, marking the highest level in seven months, a report from HSBC showed on Monday. Read more details, including economists’ reaction. Japan’s Nikkei Average JP:NIK -0.60% rose 0.1%, closing at the highest level in about five months, while the yen USDJPY -0.09% weakened to ¥101.86 from ¥102.08 in the previous session. The broader Topix index JP:I0000 -0.69% inched down 0.1%. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO -0.51%  advanced 0.6%, with the AussieAUDUSD +0.03% strengthening to 94.36 U.S. cents from 93.88 U.S. cents in the prior session. South Korea’s Kospi index KR:SEU +0.35% also settled higher, by 0.4%. However, both Hong Kong and Shanghai stocks reversed gains on profit-taking in the afternoon sessions, with the Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -1.68% tumbling 1.7% at the close, and the Shanghai Composite Index CN:SHCOMP -0.11% ending 0.1% lower. In Japan, optics manufacturer Olympus Corp. JP:7733 +1.11% rallied 4.9%, steelmaker Aichi Steel Corp. JP:5482 +1.56% climbed 2.4%, and construction equipment manufacturer Komatsu JP:6301 0.00% gained 1.3%."

"- The U.S. oil benchmark fell Monday, but losses stayed limited as traders kept an eye on the latest Iraq headlines. Crude for August deliver contract CLQ4 -0.50%  pulled back 77 cents, or 0.7%, to $106.06 a barrel. The U.S. crude benchmark had jumped on Friday, closing at the highest level for a front-month futures contract in nine months as worries about Iraq simmered."


FCPO- El Nino Spur Recovery

Dry weather condition is helping palm oil futures to recover so far, at least that is what I have been told. Yesterday the benchmark Sept breached above 2,487 level, it was four weeks major resistance area. With this new four weeks high, the Sept contract is still showing steady momentum to the upside, even though the market went down for some mild correction last Thursday and Friday. The rest of the story would resound on the export data expectation this coming 25th June. If there is any positive expectation towards the 1-25th June export data, plam oil futures is likely rally further. These news about palm oil expectation can be obtain from Bloomberg survey and Reuters survey. Usually these news provider will provide market export or other data expectation from a collective of various palm oil physical operator, palm oil cargo hub and other major palm oil companies. Technically, the benchmark Sept is still rallying judging from yesterday new higher high and higher low on hourly time frame chart. Both formation of higher high and higher low is a strong indication that suggest that the market is running on positive momentum and more rally is possible when it breached above certain resistance area, i.e: major resistance level around 2,487. Unless the Sept contract retrace down below the first pivot support level today, there is still no sign of weakness yet. If you happen to missed any setup yesterday, a conservative Long setup is possible if the Sept contract dip down to 2,464~2,460 level today. For today, second pivot support level for Sept contract is located around 2,445 while resistance is pegged at 2,507.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2507
R1= 2495
S1=2464
S2=2445
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

Thursday, June 19, 2014

FCPO: Temporay Bullish Factor, Dry Weather. 19th Jun 2014

Thursday, 19th Jun 2014. The palm oil futures for Sept contract surge about 34 points to end at 2,465 level yesterday, the highest since 29th May 2014. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday, gaining the most in four weeks, after the Federal Reserve chief signaled no hurry to raise rates. The benchmark S&P 500 reached its 20th closing record of 2014 after four consecutive days of gains, rapidly picking up steam as Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen spoke during a press conference following the Fed’s policy statement. She was vague about when the Federal Reserve could first hike rates, saying there could be “considerable time” between when the bond taper ends and hikes begin. And she said the Fed was not concerned about the stock market’s run to record highs. The S&P 500 SPX +0.77% added 14.99 points, or 0.8%, to 1,956.98, the largest one-day percentage gain in four weeks. It also took out its June 9 intraday record, hitting a new high of 1,957.81. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA +0.58%  gained 98.13 points, or 0.6%, to 16,906.62. It had been about 17 points lower before the Federal Reserve’s policy statement was released at 2 p.m. Eastern. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.59% ended the day up 25.60 points, or 0.6% at 4,362.84, its highest since April 2000."

"-Asian stocks were little moved Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy statement later in the day, though a weaker yen helped Japanese shares higher. Investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve’s statement, waiting for an update on the direction of monetary policy in the world’s largest economy. The U.S. central bank is expected to announce another $10 billion reduction in its bond-buying program to $35 billion a month. The Nikkei Average JP:NIK +1.40%  rose for the second consecutive day, and was last up 0.4%, amid yen weakness. The dollarUSDJPY +0.03%  rose 0.3% overnight to cross the ¥102 mark, and was steady during Asian trade at ¥102.15. In Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng IndexHK:HSI +0.36%   was flat, Chinese property developers fell after signs of further weakness in China’s housing market. Average new home prices rose 5.4% from a year earlier in May, compared with a 6.4% gain in April. China Resources Land HK:1109 -1.21%   CRBJF -7.07%  fell 0.7% in Hong Kong, and Evergrande Real Estate Group HK:3333 +0.99%  fell 1.8%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.89%  lost 0.1% as resource companies remained in focus."

"-The price gap between the Brent and WTI oil futures widened further Wednesday as traders weighed bearish U.S. supply data and a hint of quicker Federal Reserve rate hikes against continued strife in Iraq. Nymex WTI crude oil for July delivery CLN4 +0.31% , the U.S. benchmark, fell 39 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $105.97 a barrel, adding to a 54-cent loss on Tuesday. Oil extended losses after the Fed said it expects interest rates to rise at a slightly faster pace in 2015 and 2016. On the ICE exchange, Brent oil for August delivery UK:LCOQ4 +0.01% , which is the most sensitive to developments in Iraq, rose 85 cents, or 0.7%, at $114.30 a barrel, hitting its highest level in nine months as Sunni militants and Iraqi government forces battled for control of the nation’s largest refinery."


FCPO- Dry Weather Spur Recovery


Palm oil futures is heading for some serious recovery if there is some good news on the export data this coming 20th Jun 2014, Friday. If that event materialize, we are likely to see the Sept futures contract would be able to surge passed 2,500 easily. The benchmark Sept went above at least three weeks high with higher volume recorded, signalling strong interest for the Buyers to keep the price rallying for the moment. The good news most trader are waiting would be the fist higher low and higher high have formed on hourly time frame chart. This particular Bullish candle formation is one of the promising sign for the market to continue rally, technically. A higher low would likely signifies strong support for the price to recover after a mild sell-off or profit taking. While a higher high is likely represent fresh Buyer that came into the market and push the price even higher. All these collective Buying action will result in pro-long price recovery that might range from 50 points to 250 points recovery from 2,362 level. We should be getting better prospect for sustain rally if there is no surprise sell-off in Soy oil market. As the time of writing, the actively traded Soy oil is trading at around 40.20 per pound, the highest since 27th May 2014. For today, pivot support is located 2,499 while resistance is pegged at 2,489.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2489
R1= 2477
S1= 2499
S2= 2433
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.