Friday, February 24, 2017

24 Feb 2017: FCPO Commentary

23rd Feb 2017: Soy Oil Traded 0.20 Cents Lower, On-Shore Ringgit Traded Slightly Unchanged @ RM4.4465 Per USD.
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I apologize as previous Wednesday daily candle was not a "Hammer" candle but instead a Bullish Harami. A bullish Harami is a candlestick chart pattern in which a large candlestick is followed by a smaller candlestick whose body is located within the vertical range of the larger body. The bullish Harami is a downtrend or bearish candlestick (red) engulfing a small bullish candlestick (green), giving a sign of a reversal of the downward trend. Since the bullish Harami indicates the bearish trend may be reversing, it may be a good consideration to go Long if the market recover higher than the high of the previous session. But unfortunately, the May contract never go above 2,814 level yesterday, it headed downwards most of the time instead. Although the previous Wednesday daily candle looks alike Hammer, the body and the top of the candle appears to be within previous Tuesday range, so it is more likely to identified as a Bullish Harami. Candlestick only provides us a guideline how to the market would probably re-act,it is not certain that the next price direction would follow the chart pattern identically even after all the chart criteria matched. I believe that the market is trying to rebound from here when it recover mostly from a new low, but that is just my gut feel. Price action for the May contract has been very nasty for the past two days, taking out my Short stop loss and then go back to my initial take profit area. It is a stormy weather to my equity right now, but I still have faith that this stormy weather will pass and I will get thru it.  Trade #189 Short setup at 2,768 ended with a 16 points stop loss when the market just open low and surge all the way to 2,784 level. To my horror, that May contract went down to 2,748 level after I have been stopped out. I guess most of you would know how does it feel after having the market stopped you out and move in favor after that. I do not see significant candle formation on daily today, it is safe to say we are likely having another Bearish session due to soy oil weakness. The soy oil for March contract is traded 0.20 cents lower to 32.38 this morning. Range for May contract likely moving within 2,750 ~ 2,790. 

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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