Monday, February 27, 2017

27 Feb 2017: FCPO Commentary

24th Feb 2017: Soy Oil Traded 0.04 Cents Lower, On-Shore Ringgit Traded Slightly Firmer @ RM4.4300 Per USD.
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Palm oil futures roller coaster ride continues to roll on last Friday. The May contact manage to hit weekly low and went to day high at the end of the session. This will be the third time that market make such price action, it tumbled to the low and recover in the afternoon session to end at the day high. I can tell that the market is trying to rebound, at least for the time being. It was too unfortunate that these kind of price action can result in very bad performance for trend trader because the price would turn around after I have enter a position. The edges position is mostly entered at the tip of a new high or new low, imagine if the price just reverse or there is no follow buying interest on the high for instances, that Long setup will likely hit stop losses. I guess there will be time for the market to trend and there will be a time where market just swing wildly. Trade #190 meets its SL points when the May contract choose to retrace 30 minutes before the market close for morning session. Trade #191 filled on the opening at afternoon session, taking higher Short position, I was just one point away from SL when the May contract touches 2,790 level. I got lucky and the May contract price did came down for me to take partial profit at 18 points. The next Long setup was ignore as the signal only valid at 5.35PM, and I am not suppose to hold any Long position overnight with price below 21-days EMA. I did feel wasted because the May contract did moved about 12 points higher at that evening session. Palm oil price outlook remain Bearish for the time being as there is no strong signage that the price action is turning to Bullish from hourly chart. All I can see for the time being is higher closing value in the closing session for the past 3 sessions, and market just open lower the next day. Palm oil production spike concern will stay as the main headlines for the price to stay Bearish in the medium term. For today, palm oil futures is likely open unchanged due as there is not much movement in soy oil price. The soy oil for May contract was traded 0.04 cents lower 32.79 cents this morning. Range for May contract likely moving within 2,790 ~ 2,840.

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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