Tuesday, December 3, 2013

FCPO: Choppy Choppy Choppy Price 3rd December 2013

Tuesday, 3rd Dec 2013. Coming on to the final month of the year, palm oil futures still unable to rally well above 2,700 level. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stock indexes ended lower on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly falling below 16,000 ahead of the closing bell as investors debated whether a record rally has become overextended. The S&P 500 index SPX -0.27%  fell 4.91 points, or 0.3%, to close at 1,800.90, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.48%  lost 77.64 points, or 0.5%, to end at 16,008.77. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.36% lost 14.63 points, or 0.4%, to 4,045.26."

"-Hong Kong stocks extended gains and mainland Chinese stocks turned higher early Monday following data indicating continued growth in the nation's manufacturing sector in November. The Shanghai CompositeCN:SHCOMP -0.59% edged up nearly 0.1%, but had lost more than 1% at the open before HSBC's monthly manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index showed the fourth straight month of rising production, with the growth at its fastest rate since March. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.66% rose 0.7% to 24,041 and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index shot up 1.2% in the wake of HSBC's report. The Hang Seng Index finished last week at its highest level since April 2011. Advancers on Monday included brokerages after the Chinese government unveiled guidelines that could pave the way for more initial public offerings."

"-January Soybeans finished down 16 at 1320 1/2, 25 1/2 off the high and 1 1/4 up from the low. March Soybeans closed down 11 3/4 at 1306. This was 3 up from the low and 21 off the high. December Soymeal closed down 9.6 at 447.0. This was 0.6 up from the low and 14.8 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished up 0.12 at 40.34, 0.45 off the high and 0.27 up from the low. January soybeans closed 16 cents lower on the session and down 25 1/2 cents from the overnight highs of the session. The volatile outside-day down was seen as a bearish technical development. Follow-through support from the active export sales of last week helped to support the early rally to the highest level since September 19th. However, the turn down in nearby meal after hitting new contract highs and slower than expected weekly export inspections for soybeans helped spark aggressive long liquidation selling and the reversal-type action. Traders were looking for weekly export inspections near 60-70 million bushels as compared with 67.4 million last week and 87.8 million the previous week. However, inspections came in at 52.6 million bushels which is still well above the 20.5 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the year. Spread liquidation supported soybean oil and November 2014 soybeans which were trading higher on the day into the mid-session. Weather looks favorable for South America crops and outside market forces (higher US dollar and lower metal markets) are seen as additional negative forces. Traders also viewed a private South America production forecast for Brazil soybean production at 89.4 million tonnes as a bearish development. The USDA has pegged the crop at a record high 88 million tonnes from just 82 million last year and 66.5 million for 2012."

FCPO- More Choppiness Price Action To Come. 

Palm oil futures is having tough time deciding which direction to take for now as recent weakness in export figures dragged down chances for further recovery. Not only that active production cycle are currently running on local plantation, stockpiles has not show any promising sign to come down. Even though current stockpiles now standing at 1.97 millions tons, price might get some Bearish re-action once it hit above 2 millions tons. Recent palm oil futures weakness was also related to Soy oil lack luster positive price action so far. The most active traded Soy oil was traded lower at 40.56 cents per pound. Trader can expect good things if Soy oil went up above 40.80 and followed by 41.00 level, but until then we need to dance with the Bears for a moment. Technically, long term positive momentum still remain with series of higher low and higher high being formed on daily chart. But once you zoomed in to hourly and other minutes chart, market is heading to entirely different direction both on medium term and short term time frame. On hourly chart or medium term, the benchmark Feb is showing signs of topping out or it is know as lower high for some trader. For today, pivot support for the benchmark Feb is located around 2,613 while resistance is pegged at 2,673.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2673
R1= 2657
S1= 2627
S2= 2613
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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