Thursday, November 21, 2013

FCPO: U Got My Attention 21th Nov 2013

Thursday, 21th Nov 2013. That is right, palm oil futures had the first recovery attempt done yesterday when the benchmark Feb jumped gaped up on the second session and went up to 2,596 level. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday after Federal Reserve meeting minutes signaled the central bank was on track to slow down its bond-buying program that has boosted the equity marketThe S&P 500 SPX -0.36%  fell 6.50 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 1,781.37, stretching its losing streak to three straight days for its longest downtrend in about eight weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.41%  lost 66.21 points, or 0.4%, to close at 15,900.82, after briefly trading as many as 102 points lower. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.26%  shed 10.28 points, or 0.3%, to end at 3,921.27." 

"-Hong Kong stocks opened higher Wednesday, as mainland financial firms extended their rally into a third day. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.18% rose 0.4% to 23,743.37 in early moves, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 0.8%, though the Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP +0.62%traded flat. "

"- Oil futures closed little changed Wednesday after prices were whipped around through the session by weekly U.S. government data on petroleum supplies, the December crude contract expiration and minutes from last month’s Federal Reserve meeting. Crude oil for December delivery CLZ3 +0.01% lost a penny to settle at $93.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange."

"-January Soybeans finished down 2 1/2 at 1273 3/4, 10 off the high and 3 1/2 up from the low. March Soybeans closed unchanged at 1264 1/4. This was 3 3/4 up from the low and 6 1/2 off the high.

December Soymeal closed down 1.9 at 407.0. This was 1.1 up from the low and 4.0 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished up 0.33 at 40.32, 0.1 off the high and 0.32 up from the low. January soybeans closed 2 1/2 cents lower on the session and experienced the lowest close since November 7th and closed 10 cents off of the highs. Meal closed $1.90 but a bounce in oil (Dec up 33) helped to provide some underlying support. Talk of the oversold condition and a weaker US dollar were factors to support the market early. However, a turn from lower to higher in the dollar, talk of good weather for the developing crop in South America and further weakness in meal helped to pressure. The turn down in the nearby futures from higher on the day sparked some spread liquidation as well and November 2014 soybeans are trading higher on the day into the mid-session. Gulf basis bids were down 4 cents this morning to 93 over January and this may have added to the negative tone. Weekly export sales for release in the morning are expected to come in near 750,000 tonnes as compared with 848,500 last week. Meal sales near 275,000 tonnes from 283,200 tonnes last week."

FCPO- Its Rallying Time !!

First of all, lets talk about global equity market. Majority of the market is going to spook by Federal Reserve plan to taper but I doubt they would execute it that soon, at least unlikely this year. Most of the FOMC meeting yesterday did a lot rhetoric but no decision. In another words, nothing major happen in the interest rate market and economy growth will be the one of the obstacle for equity market to rise further. Back to palm oil, yesterday surge was linked by improve anticipation on export figures, at least it was mentioned by some analyst. On other side of story, the benchmark Feb possible gaped up catalyst was probably caused by Soyoil surge in the afternoon session. Whatever the caused is, we are not here to find out or probe what caused it, but rather taking action or advantage of the situation. The gap up yesterday brought tremendous opportunity for the traders to go Long. Even if you got it later, your Long position would have brought you substantial gain an hour before the market close. Technically, yesterday bullish candle was a sign for the market to recover further. While the bullish candle body did not fully engulf previous bearish candle, but it is enough to signifies significant bullish force going on yesterday. For today, pivot support for the benchmark Feb is located around 2,550 while resistance is pegged at 2,624.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2624
R1= 2601
S1= 2550
S2= 2522
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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