Monday, April 15, 2013

Small Retracement On Stock Index, Nothing Major Yet. 15th April 2013

Monday 15th April 2013. The index futures close with some profit taking on last Friday, dragging down gains that made last week.  Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks on Friday pared sharp losses following weak March retail sales and consumer sentiment data, but the rebound wasn’t enough to extend the week’s winning streak by another day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.0005% slipped 0.08 point to close at 14,865.06, breaking a three-day streak of all-time closing highs, with 17 out of 30 components trading lower. Earlier, the index touched an intraday low of 14,790.57. Alcoa Inc.AA -1.20% and DuPont DD -0.93% led the index lower with 1.2% and 0.9% declines, respectively. The S&P 500 SPX -0.28% lost 4.52 points, or 0.3%, to close at 1,588.85, snapping a two-day streak of record closing highs, with energy and materials stocks weighing most on the index. Earlier, the S&P 500 touched an intraday low of 1,579.97. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.16% slid 5.21 points, or 0.2%, to close at 3,294.95, after trading as low as 3,271.02 on the session."

"-Most Asian markets fell on Friday on concerns about earnings growth, with South Korean stocks tumbling on heavy losses in the construction and shipbuilding sectors, while Japanese shares pulled back from a string of multi-year highs. Elsewhere, China’s Shanghai CompositeCN:000001 -2.63%  gave up 0.6%, Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 -0.46%  eased 0.5% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.06% slipped 0.1%.

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK -0.65%  dropped 0.5% after ending at its best level since July 2008 on Thursday. The benchmark was still the region’s best performer for the week, rising more than 5%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO -0.82%  defied the trend to finish up 0.1% in the wake of another record-setting day for key U.S. indexes."

"- Crude-oil futures settled lower on Friday, as declines in U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment, renewed worries over Cyprus and recent downgrades to global oil-demand forecasts combined to push prices to their lowest close in over a month. May crude oil CLK3 -0.80% lost $2.22, or 2.4%, to settle at $91.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, suffering a 1.5% decline on the week."

"-May Soybeans finished up 11 at 1413, 6 off the high and 13 1/2 up from the low. July Soybeans closed up 11 at 1379 1/4. This was 14 up from the low and 4 1/2 off the high.
May Soymeal closed up 5.2 at 400.2. This was 5.8 up from the low and 3.1 off the high. May Soybean Oil finished down 0.54 at 49.23, 0.77 off the high and 0.23 up from the low. The oilseed complex saw a healthy dose of support to end the week with May soybeans and May meal finishing in positive territory but oil sank lower off technical selling. Strong action in calendar spreads was noted for the second day in a row with significant gains in the May/November and July/November. Tight supplies in processor markets were seen as the catalyst for the buying support despite a broader-commodity complex that slid sharply lower. Gold was trading over $60 lower and crude oil sank more than $2 at one point in the day. Basis offers in the Gulf were sharply higher this week which suggests new export sales were made and the USDA announced this morning that 110,000 tonnes of soybeans were sold to an unknown destination for the 2013/14 marketing year. November soybeans struggled to trade in positive territory for most of the session as many traders expect to see increases in planted acreage if corn planting delays are significant in the northern portion of the Corn Belt. The robust supply in South America was also seen as a limiting factor."

FKLI- Small Retracement, Nothing Major Yet. 

There was some profit taking after the index futures after it went up to record high around 1,719 level last Thursday but not something major such as Bearish trend reversal. The Bulls are still on running even though the market participants are expecting uncertainties prior to Malaysia polling date. On contrary, it seem that the market is not effected at all the concern for the general election result, early next month. Technically, we should be looking some mild retracement for a few sessions this week before the Bulls can resume their role again, maybe after two or three sessions of retracement. Beware if the market drop below second support pivot point around 1,679~1,680 area as we might be looking at stronger profit taking activities the next sessions if the Bears manage to pull that out. Otherwise, pay attention to any early sign on 15 minutes~hourly chart time frame for the Bullish candle formation such as higher high and higher low. For today, pivot support for April contract is located around 1,687 while resistance is pegged at 1,711.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1727
R1= 1711
S1= 1687
S2= 1679


FCPO- Bears In The Spotlight

Independent cargo surveyor ITS and SGS will announce the export data for 1~15th March vs Feb today. Unfortunately, the neutral anticipation on that data have result weaker palm oil futures last week. Most of the recovery made in the morning sessions were quickly wipe out in the afternoon session due to weak fundamental. Plus, we are likely expecting more weaker palm oil futures if the benchmark Jun come down below previous major support level around 2,335. Apart from that, market is likely remain Bearish due to weak Soy oil prices. Grains planting acreage will increase if there is any delay occur on corn planting season, thus increase the Soy supplies in the market. Nothing much has changed on the technical side, market is still travelling on Bearish tone as there were lower highs and lower lows formed last week on hourly to smaller time frame. If the benchmark Jun does breach the lower "neckline" identical to major support level 2,335, we might be looking at major downtrend this week. For today, pivot support is located around 2,331~2,335 followed by 2,318 while resistance is pegged at 2,362.


Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2380
R1= 2362
S1= 2331
S2= 2318


 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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