Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Bulls Back to Business On Stock Index 17th April 2013

Wednesday, 17th April 2013. Bulls are coming back on stock index as the equity market revive their previous uptrend yesterday, closing at the day high was just the beginning. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks closed with substantial gains Tuesday, rebounding from their hardest knock this year as first-quarter reports from companies including Coca-Cola Co. beat expectations and data had housing starts up 7% in March. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +1.08%  recouped a large chunk of its 265-point loss the prior day, rising 157.58 points to 14,756.78 for its best session in nearly seven weeks. The S&P 500 index SPX +1.43%  added 22.21 points to 1,574.57, with materials leading the gains across all 10 of its major sectors. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +1.50%  rose 48.14 points to 3,264.63."

"-Japanese and Australian stocks fell Tuesday after worries over China and a slump in commodities prompted a sell-off on Wall Street, although many regional markets came off their lows as buyers circled back in after recent losses.  The Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +1.03%  ended fell 0.4% and the broader TopixJP:I0000 +1.03% lost 1.3% in Japan. Australia’s S&P/ASX AU:XJO +0.95%  gave up 0.3% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.23% lost 0.x%, with all three markets paring early losses. Rebounding from early declines, China’s Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -0.11% inched up 0.5% after a three-day losing streak, and South Korea’s KospiKR:SEU +0.05% ended up 0.1%, after the government unveiled a supplementary budget that analysts said will provide a small fiscal stimulus to the economy."

"-Crude-oil futures settled almost flat Tuesday, taking a break after a three-session decline with a weekly round of U.S. supply data on tap, but concerns about demand kept pressure on prices. May crude oil CLK3 +0.11%  added a penny to settle at $88.72 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching intraday lows under $87. Prices had tallied a loss of more than 6% over the past three trading sessions."

"-May Soybeans finished up 16 1/2 at 1411 1/2, 5 1/2 off the high and 22 1/2 up from the low. July Soybeans closed up 19 1/4 at 1375 1/4. This was 24 3/4 up from the low and 2 1/2 off the high.
May Soymeal closed up 8 at 401.3. This was 9.3 up from the low and 2.4 off the high. May Soybean Oil finished up 0.8 at 48.98, 0.13 off the high and 0.98 up from the low. The soybean market saw support for most of the session, led mostly by the old crop contracts. Thoughts that additional export business may have been done, perhaps to Chinese buyers added support. No confirmation has been made. A well-followed oilseed analyst suggested recently that the slow start to the South American export program due to shipment delays caused by inadequate infrastructure at the ports could mean China may buy more US soybeans in the next couple of weeks. CIF and FOB values have been firm over the last week which suggests strong demand but also tight domestic supply pipelines. The analyst also noted that the Chinese could increase purchases of rapeseed and canola, something recently done out of Australia. Wires reported that China has approved an additional oilseed crush plant to accept shipments of Canadian canola. China agreed to allow Canadian canola to be processed in a 600,000-tonne oilseed crush plant. The moves by the Chinese suggest they are looking at alternatives to soybeans due to the tight US supply and logistical problems in South America. Soybean demand from China has been questionable since the beginning of 2013 due to sluggish poultry and pork prices. Long term, many traders suspect demand to increase as Chinese farmers' plant more corn and turn away from soybeans."

FKLI- Do Not Be A "Short" Hero

In reality, especially in the financial market, heroes get to die in a gruesome way by staying stubbornly in losses trades. Thy shall not admit loss and move on will trap in a negative losses spiral. Usually once the trader himself realize it, it is too late because the unfavourable positions has gone in some he cannot manage, identical to terminal stage of cancer patient. How do you prevent this spiral ? The answer will be always have a cut loss or a back up plan if the trades do get wrong and make sure you played by your rules. Technically, the April contract preceding uptrend has resume when the market manage to close in positive territory for the first time after correcting for two sessions. Not any typical closing value, the April contract manage to recover from yesterday gap down in the morning session and close above 1,700.50 level after it open at 1,683.50. Judging from the candle, significant Buying interest start to be noticeable when the April contract rose up to 1,692~1,694 level, forcing most Short holders to cover their position when it reach 1,695 level. For today, pivot support for April contract is located around 1,687 while resistance is pegged at 1,714.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1714
R1= 1707
S1= 1687
S2= 1674

FCPO- Going Down For Sure ? Not So Fast.

Palm oil futures breached below the expected support level last Monday this week by gaping down to 2,321, but will it start to head south swiftly ? Every trading instruments or commodity has their own unique correlation with other instrument within their similar specifications or types. For this instances, Soy oil was the rival product for palm oil as both of these instrument represent edible oil with slightly different characteristic. Due to these reason, palm oil futures tend to correlate with Soy oil in certain degree and trader should only use it as a guide line in Long term rather than medium to short term because almost every price curve on financial trading instrument is somewhat correlated in long term. That might explain what is reason behind why palm oil futures manage to recovered some ground yesterday as it was supported by significant rallied on Soy oil. For today, traders can expect some mild recovery on the benchmark July judging on current higher Soy oil price. But the weak fundamental might limit price from recovering too high as medium outlook on the palm oil futures remain Bearish. Higher price around 2,327 is likely invite more Sellers to go Short rather than to Long in the market. Pivot support for the July contract is located around 2,271 while resistance is pegged at 2,327 today.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2327
R1= 2314
S1= 2286
S2= 2271

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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