Friday, April 12, 2013

Its Hammer Time !! 12th April 2013

Friday, 12th April 2013. Stock index and index futures breached above their respective major resistance and claimed record high closing value yesterday. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks on Thursday notched another day of record gains as some retailers reported improved sales, though tech stocks tumbled after a report showed a sharp decline in PC demand.S&P 500 index SPX +0.36% , ended up 5.64 points, or 0.4%, at 1,593.37 after hitting an intraday record of 1,597.35.

After an early fall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.42%  ended up 62.90 points, or 0.4%, at 14,865.14, also a record close. Pfizer Inc. PFE +2.41%  led gains that included all but five of the Dow’s 30 members. For the S&P 500, it was the index’s second straight day of record closes. For the Dow, it was the index’s third straight record finish."

"- Most Asian markets rose Thursday as a record finish for key U.S. indexes and hopes for Japanese central-bank easing lifted sentiment, while Chinese stocks climbed after a boost in bank lending and expectations for lower corporate taxes. The Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK -0.17%  ended 2% higher at 13,549.16, a level it hasn’t seen since July 2008. The benchmark ended higher for the sixth time in seven trading days, with the U.S. dollar USDJPY -0.0878%  staying just short of the key ¥100 level. Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200AU:XJO +0.16% ended 0.8% higher and South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU -0.18%overcame intraday losses to finish up 0.7%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.30% gained 0.3% in afternoon trading. The Shanghai CompositeCN:000001 +0.05%  was one major exception to the broader regional trend, ending down 0.3%."

"-Oil futures finished lower Thursday, logging their first loss in four sessions. The International Energy Agency modestly cut its oil-demand forecast, a day after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries did the same. May crudeCLK3 -0.23% fell $1.13, or 1.2%, to settle at $93.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "

"-May Soybeans finished up 9 1/4 at 1402, 4 1/4 off the high and 19 1/2 up from the low. July Soybeans closed up 3/4 at 1368 1/4. This was 13 up from the low and 7 1/2 off the high.
May Soymeal closed up 2.1 at 395.0. This was 5.2 up from the low and 4.1 off the high. May Soybean Oil finished down 0.26 at 49.77, 0.38 off the high and 0.1 up from the low. May soybeans finished higher on the day while the November contract saw double digit losses and finished on the lows of the session. Tight supply pipelines in the US and concerns that a port strike in Brazil might delay soybean shipments helped to support the move higher. The July/November and May/November calendar spreads exploded to the upside today as traders weigh tight old crop supplies against hefty supplies in South America. The impact on consumer demand in China from the Bird Flu continues to add a modest amount of resistance to rallies in the old crop soybean contracts. Export sales were supportive to market direction today with net weekly sales coming in at 319,200 tonnes for the current marketing year and 64,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 383,700. Cumulative sales as of April 4th came in at 99% of the USDA forecast for the current marketing year vs. a 5 year average of 90%. Sales of 19,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net meal sales came in at 227,100 tonnes for the current marketing year and 7,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 234,600. Cumulative sales stand at 96% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 71%. Sales of 14,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at 7,700 tonnes for the current marketing year and cumulative sales stand at 79% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 66%. Sales of 9,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast."

FKLI- Time To Ring The Bell

Remember when you see a big scale thermometer in most western country amusement park, where there will be a person who will take a big hammer and hit the big button to make the thermometer surge. If you hit it hard enough, you might ring the bell on top of that thermometer. That is the scenario happen currently. The Bulls manage to hit hard and rang the bell, but what happen next would not be pleasant. After the bell rang, the thermometer will start falling rapidly back to the button below. Market might re-act similarly if it rose too swiftly, but not all surged will be accompany by major profit taking unless the rally occur during downtrend. Technically, the index futures is poised to rally further judging on yesterday closing value. The spot month contract manage to rose above major resistance level around 1,705, and close at historical high around 1,711. This value will be the landmark for the Bulls to gained control and further strengthen their dominance. Higher highs and higher lows are clearly visible on lower time frame chart such as hourly, 30 minutes and 15 minutes. Market will be travelling on positive note prior to polling date but beware as it is still trading on peak volatility. For today, pivot support for Jun contract is located around 1,702 while resistance is pegged at 1,721.0

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1721
R1= 1716
S1= 1702
S2= 1694

FCPO- Getting Weaker, Approaching Major Support Area.

Palm oil futures is currently heading down big time as trader can plot down trending price channel on hourly and lower time frame chart. Closing another RM15 lower to 2,355, the benchmark Jun has every reason to go down further today. First, it's rival product Soy oil is having tough time recovering due to oversupplies and active production concern over South America. Second, palm oil demand remain sluggish for the end February, raising only 10 percent while stocks only manage to reduced gradually to 2.17 millions tons. And third, major lower high was formed on hourly chart shown above. A failed rallies that often result in lower high formation is not a pleasant sight to see when the market approach its previous major support. The next thing to do from here, is just breaking the major support  around 2,336 level and create another lower low. With the price action developed so far on lower time frame, both medium term and short term technical outlook would remain Bearish. Apart from that, we might looking at possible head and shoulder chart pattern with the neckline being place around 2,336 level. Again, breaching this neckline will likely result weaker palm oil futures. For today, pivot support for the Jun contract is located around 2,337 followed by 2,319 while resistance is pegged at 2,376.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2397
R1= 2376
S1= 2337
S2= 2319

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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