Bears Resume Its Role On FCPO 30th APril 2013

Tuesday, 30th April 2013. Palm oil futures came crushing down yesterday as market participants are expecting weaker than expected export figures for the end of April. Other news to follow.

"-  U.S. stock indexes advanced on Monday, lifting the S&P 500 to a record close, as investors embraced the latest corporate earnings reports. Finishing fractionally above its highest finish, registered just over two weeks ago, the S&P 500 index SPX +0.72% ended up 11.37 points at a 1,593.61, with technology the best performing of its 10 major sectors. Having been up by as much as 132 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.72%  ended with a gain of 106.20 points at 14,818.75, a level putting it 46 points from its record close, set April 11. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.85%   gained 27.76 points to 3,307.02."

"-Most Asian markets nudged higher on Monday, with Australian stocks leading the advance as cautious investors bought into high dividend-yielding shares ahead of key global economic data later in the week. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.52% advanced 0.6% for its fifth advance in six sessions, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng IndexHK:HSI +0.15%  rose 0.2% and Taiwan’s TaiexXX:Y9999 +0.10% gained 0.1%.

South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.71% fell 0.2%."

"-Oil futures ended higher on Monday, as expectations for a boost in economic stimulus from global central banks helped fuel a climb past $94 a barrel. Oil also saw support from a weaker dollar, which relieved some pressure from news of a slowdown in U.S. consumer spending. Crude oil for June delivery CLM3 -0.16%  settled at $94.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $1.50, or 1.6%."

"-May Soybeans finished up 41 at 1471 3/4, 3 1/4 off the high and 46 3/4 up from the low. July Soybeans closed up 27 3/4 at 1408 3/4. This was 31 1/4 up from the low and 2 1/4 off the high.

July Soymeal closed up 11.7 at 416.4. This was 12.3 up from the low and 1.0 off the high.

July Soybean Oil finished down 0.03 at 49.51, 0.38 off the high and 0.46 up from the low.

Spillover support from a sharply higher trade in the wheat and corn markets helped to push soybeans higher along with better than expected export inspection data and strong meal demand. The May/July spread pushed higher ahead of first notice day due to basis levels trading well above delivery value in the river market. Strong meal premiums in the interior of the US, steady demand, and lack-luster physical soybean movement in South America were all contributing factors to the bullish trade action today. November soybeans traded higher due to the positive moves in the old crop contracts as well as December corn. Export inspections were considered slightly supportive after coming in at 8.9 million bushels, up from 4.9 million the week prior, and above the 5.4 million needed per week to hit the USDA export estimate. The cumulative shipment pace is estimated at 93% of the USDA estimate vs. the 5 year average of 83.5%. The market has seen a significant drawdown in the US shipment pace which suggests China may not be in a hurry for soybeans. Many traders have indicated Chinese buyers will hit the US soon given the big loading delays in the Brazilian ports however the Bird Flu continues to keep feed demand sluggish due to poor margins and demand in the poultry industry."

FCPO- Bears Resume Its Role

Yesterday anticipation came short when the palm oil futures breached way below pivot support area and continue to head down. Instead of travelling within the anticipated range, the benchmark July got up a one way ticket and headed down straight to 2,260 before closing at 2,273 yesterday. The July contract went down about RM62 couple with increased volume and open interest, signifying strong Bears influence throughout the trading sessions. Technically, the benchmark July has never seen to look so Bearish before as it gone into consolidation phase last week, where it manage to bounce back and recover after it went down to 2,251 level. But yesterday, the Bears have a game changing force and push the price down again, signifying great Bears strength from the start till the end of the trading session. Further weakness is bound to happen if previous support / low around 2,251 taken out this week amid more and more lower highs have been formed so far. No sign of major recovery yet from the time of writing and market is still running on Bearish mode in medium term. Final defence line for support will be located around 2,225~2,220 and it is likely hold for a while. For today, pivot support for July contract is located around 2,249 while resistance is pegged at 2,316.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2355
R1= 2316
S1= 2249
S2= 2221
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.