Friday, May 3, 2013

Polling Date Approaches, Profit Taking On Stock Index Likely. 3rd May 2013

Friday, 3rd May 2013. Stock index and index futures are likely heading down for some profit taking activities after rising for few sessions this week. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks surged on Thursday, with the S&P 500 clearing the prior day’s drop to close at a record, after the European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate and U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly declined to a five-year low. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.89%  rallied 130.63 points to 14,831.58, with all but three of its 30 components in positive turf. After rising to a record intraday high of 1,598.60, the S&P 500 index SPX +0.94% added 14.89 points to 1,597.59, a level that has it fractionally above its all-time close of 1,597.56 hit on Tuesday.

Technology led gains and utilities proved the weakest performer among its 10 sectors. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +1.26%  climbed 41.49 points to 3,340.62."
 "-The Shanghai Composite IndexHK:HSI -0.30%  fell 0.2% as the market reopened for the first time this week after the Labor Day holidays, while the Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.30%  dipped 0.3% in Hong Kong, which was also closed Wednesday. Elsewhere in the region, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK -0.76% dipped 0.8% for its fourth straight trading day of losses, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200AU:XJO +0.66% shed 0.7%, and South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.19%  fell 0.3%."
"-Oil futures leapt Thursday, posting their first gain in three sessions, as a fall in U.S. jobless claims and a rate cut by the European Central Bank boosted hopes for energy demand. In contrast, natural-gas futures fell sharply after data showed a bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. weekly inventories. Crude oil for June delivery CLM3 -0.19% climbed $2.96 to end at $93.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange."
"-May Soybeans finished up 3 1/2 at 1441, 13 1/4 off the high and 5 1/4 up from the low. July Soybeans closed down 3/4 at 1372 1/4. This was 4 1/4 up from the low and 11 off the high.
July Soymeal closed up 1.8 at 406.2. This was 2.3 up from the low and 2.7 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished down 0.36 at 48.49, 0.58 off the high and 0.15 up from the low. The soybean market ended the day mixed with the May contract gaining on the July after no deliveries were reported overnight. November soybeans traded lower. Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at -109,800 tonnes for the current marketing year and 1,341,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,231,300. Total sales were viewed as positive but China canceled 276,300 tonnes of old crop purchases which help to offset the upside advance. Some of the tonnage was offset by purchases by Mexico and Indonesia. This was the second consecutive reporting period in which China reported a cancelation of tonnage further narrowing the cumulative sales pace to the cumulative shipment pace. As of April 25th, cumulative sales stand at 99% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 94%. Sales of 24,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast, up from 17,600 the week prior. Net meal sales came in at 93,200 tonnes for the current marketing year and 55,700 for the next marketing year for a total of 148,900. Cumulative meal sales stand at 102% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 76%. Net oil sales came in at a sluggish 1,100 tonnes for the current marketing year and cumulative oil sales stand at 80% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 71%. Sales of 9,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Soybean oil traded lower today and Malaysian palm oil fell to a fresh 1 week low overnight which added pressure to the market. Soybean oil remains a steep premium to palm oil in the world market and with Argentina crush picking up; export demand may slow further for the US."

FKLI- Look Out For Temporary Retracement

I have to factor in major political event as market is likely taking this reason to move. It has done that for the last few months, starting on the day the announcement was made on parliament dissolution. Malaysian will choose their next CEO of the country and which side will run the show. Whether the ruling party or Barisan manage to sustain their power or there will be transition of power if the opposition force win the election. Words out, market would get hit if the opposition manage to take power as mild chaotic and some social unrest might take place. Much work need to be done both internally and externally if the opposition is getting to form a government. Technically, the Bulls was rejected yesterday when the market open lower and kept heading in negative territory. Profit taking might be the next agenda for the market to move after rising for few weeks. Any overnight positions that gone un-hedge is not advisable as polling date take place within this weekend. For today, pivot support for the May contract is located around 1,688.50 while resistance is pegged at 1,711.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1716.50
R1= 1711
S1= 1697
S2= 1688.50


FCPO- Bears Still In The Game

Bears make their mark again yesterday when the market closed lower than the morning session low, and there is no sign when is the Bulls are going to come back. The benchmark July losses another ground when it closed RM27 lower yesterday, wiping out hope for the market to recover this week. In line with weaker palm oil export for the month of April vs March announce on Tuesday, price outlook has turn into deep Bullish mode. Technically, price action remain Bearish with new lower lows and lower high formed yesterday. There is no escape for the Long holders if they wish to hold their positions further this week as the next major support still lies about RM39 below yesterday close or 2,220 area. And that was not the worse part, the worst part of all we would not know this major support will hold for sure. It would not be a good bet at all because even if it would hold, it is up to the mercy of the market to rebound from that level. It might only rebound less than 0.5% or 1% the most if this area appear to be a major support. After that, the July contract is likely heading down even further if the 2,220 level manage to taken out. Always know the big picture by zooming of your chart and therefore knowing what which side you are betting at and for how long. For today, pivot support is located around 2,247 followed by 2,220 while resistance is pegged at 2,281.


Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2281
R1= 2270
S1= 2253
S2= 2247
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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