Monday, April 29, 2013

Calm Before The Storm 29th April 2013

Monday, 29th April 2013. The steam is building for the Malaysia general election event where all Malaysian will cast their vote to decide which party to manage the country for coming 5 years. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks ended mostly lower on Friday after a report showed the economy expanded at a slower pace than expected in the first quarter and a gauge of consumer sentiment fell in April.

However, gains for Hewlett-Packard Co. and Chevron Corp. helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average finish in positive territory. The S&P 500 index SPX -0.18%  fell 2.92 points, or 0.2%, to end at 1,582.24 after hitting an intraday low of 1,577.56. The benchmark snapped a five-session winning streak Friday, but it posted weekly gains of 1.7%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq CompositeCOMP -0.33%  dropped 10.72 points, or 0.3%, to end at 3,279.26, leaving it up 2.3% for the week. More than 681 million shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Composite volume topped 3.1 billion. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.08% rose 11.75 points, or 0.1%, to end at 14,712.55, leaving it up 1.1% for the week."

"-Most Asian markets declined Friday, paring the strong gains recorded earlier in the week, with mainland Chinese shares sliding ahead of a three-day weekend amid lingering economic worries. Hong Kong equities climbed as a number of frontline companies reported strong profit growth. Several Japanese stocks also ended higher on the back of upbeat results and forecasts, although the broader market fell in choppy trade after the country’s central bank refrained from announcing any fresh monetary easing measures. The Shanghai Composite CN:000001 -0.97%  fell 1%, South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU -0.21% dropped 0.4%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.58%  gave up 0.1% and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK -0.30%  fell 0.3%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.65% climbed 0.7%, while Taiwan’s TaiexXX:Y9999 +0.20% ended flat."

"- Crude-oil futures closed lower Friday, as disappointing first-quarter U.S. economic growth fed worries over the outlook for energy demand. Crude oil for June delivery CLM3 -0.39%  fell 64 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"-May Soy beans finished up 7 1/4 at 1430 3/4, 1 1/4 off the high and 13 1/2 up from the low. July Soybeans closed up 8 3/4 at 1381. This was 15 up from the low and 4 1/2 off the high.
July Soymeal closed up 4.6 at 404.7. This was 6.1 up from the low and 0.6 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished up 0.06 at 49.54, 0.69 off the high and 0.44 up from the low. July soybeans traded higher with strong support showing up in the July/November calendar spread which helped to pressure the November contract to the downside. Basis in the Gulf had a softer tone today and interior processor bids held mostly steady. Soybean meal basis levels continue to firm up across the Corn Belt with some processors indicating they may delay their scheduled downtime as crush margins improve. To date, cumulative meal sales are up 36.50% from year ago levels and there is still 23 weeks left in the marketing year. FOB basis levels in the Port of Paranagua declined this week as traders continue to talk about Chinese cargo cancelations although no confirmation of this has been seen. Weekly US export data indicates shipments have totaled 9.78 million bushels since the week ending April 11th, which suggests cargos are not being shifted to the US from South America. Outside markets were mixed with the US Dollar trading sharply lower against the Yen and US Stock Indices slid lower after US GDP data came in below market estimates this morning."

FKLI- Prepare For Election Uncertainties

I have to use the word "fishy" or tricky it is still early to tell where are the direction of the market heading prior to the 13th general election event. Neither I am sure of the stock index will come down for some adjustment nor making new highs again prior to the upcoming major political event on 5th May. It is futile to look at historical event as there is mix result based on 2008 general election where the market goes up continuously and 2004 general election where the market took a dip. But something for certain, uncertainties would invite more Bearish outlook, maybe it could get worse if there is a major transition of power to new government. Technically, today Bearish candle on the opening session may signal further profit taking activities as the market has climbed to it's previous high last Friday. Traders might start to square off their positions while they can this week before the polling event start this weekend. You have been warned of possible gaps if you are holding your positions overnight throughout the first week of May weekend. For today, pivot support for April contract is located around 1,699 while resistance is pegged at 1,721.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1728
R1= 1721
S1= 1706
S2= 1699

FCPO-Travelling Within A Range

Palm oil futures is likely travelling within the range of 2,340~2,255 this week judging from the consolidation phase when it mange to recover from previous corretion. Most of the reason for the price to dropped was due to sudden weakness in the Soy oil last few weeks, and sluggish demand on palm oil on March plus April as well. If there is no significant increased in the export for the upcoming MPOB announcement on 10th May, we might looking at major palm oil stock piling up record high. Technically, the benchmark July breached above expected resistance around 2,325 but the gains was short lived. The July contract has to stay above 2,325 in order to signal further Bullish event. Else, market is likely crawling back to the ranging mode suggested above. For today, Buyers can get ready to act when the benchmark July went down approximately 2,289 second pivot support level while Sellers can opt to go Short if it gone too high around 2,325~2,331. All positions that getting into the market around today's pivot support or resistance level must accompany with at least one stop loss as price break out will occur above these suggested pivot level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2347
R1= 2331
S1= 2302
S2= 2289
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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