Thursday, June 30, 2016

30 June 2016 FCPO Email Commentary Sample


FCPO 29 June 2016 Daily Chart
Traders can make any mistake at any given time, but it is the repeatable mistake that taking toll out of your equity. Imagine that you have enough psychic power to not let the same mistake happen because in the past you have learnt your lesson, would you be a better trader ? Eventually that is all it takes to be better, just do not let the same mistake happen again. Palm oil futures made a new three months low yesterday with the Sept breaking major Support at 2,350 level and Selling all the way down to 2,316 level. Market ended at the day low at 2,317 for Sept contract. The price did not even bother to recover after breaking the 2,350 Support level, it just tumble all the way down. I made some wrong expectation on how the Sept contract should re-act when it break below the Support level, it seems the Bears are still dominant after that major Support shattered. Palm oil futures have been Selling off continuously since three months ago even though Ringgit were very weak few weeks ago, there was no noticeable recovery on that particular time. For today, the Sept contract is likely going down for another round judging on weaker soy oil price. The soy oil price for Aug was traded 0.14 cents down to 30.99 cents this morning. It is very dangerous to any traders if he/she would not believe that market can go down consecutively for substantial numbers of days and extremely oversold in any time frame, taking any counter trend position such as going Long in a falling market just because it is cheap is a fatal mistake. Futures market do not have any limitation on how it should fall, if it is falling, it will be far cheaper for the few days. Instead of spending your ammunition and trying to Buy at the low, why not wait for some sign of promising recovery, then going Long from there, the odds would be that bad at all. Of course you would not getting to Buy at the low, but how many of us can Buy anything when the price is the lowest ? With most of the variables remain constant, the Sept contract range for today is likely moving within 2,280 ~ 2,330 level.  


Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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