Thursday, April 21, 2016

The Big Picture 21 Apr 2016

FCPO Overall Outlook 21 Apr 2016



Talking about bigger picture, here is how the FCPO daily looks like after it has "break out" from the base or from the curve. The price does gap up along with soy oil rally yesterday but stop and retrace on the afternoon session. It is not a straight line rally as you see, half of the gain was wiped out in the afternoon session yesterday. It is even worse to catch any good trade on intraday setup because price on move in 5 to 15 points range and most of the immediate low does not go down all the way, it rebounded and took my stop loss, at least for my case. Back to market outlook, palm oil futures is likely open unchaged today judging from soy oil lack of price movement this morning. The Soy oil for May contract was traded 0.05 cents lower to 34.70 cents as the time of writing. We should see a little weak opening for July contract if the May contract soy oil went down more than 0.10 cents later. Weather play for palm oil is still positive and I do not see any changes for the time being, at least for this month. Maybe we would see some hesitation toward previous major around 2,793 level where price would retrace when it approach that area but other than that, there is no major concern for July contract to continue rally. Pay attention to export number and Ringgit changes, market is likely taking some hint before changing any course of direction. For today, range for July contract likely 2700~2740.

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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