Tuesday, November 18, 2014

FCPO: 200 Points Sideways, Move Along 18th Nov 2014

Tuesday, 18th Nov 2014. Palm oil futures is doing what we called a Bulls and Bears battle, but to put it in simpler way, it is a battle between the group of trader that is confused and a some informed trader. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks ended Monday's choppy session fractionally higher. A small gain on the S&P 500 was enough to send the index into record close. Stocks were under pressure in the morning trade following news that Japan fell into recession and less-than-stellar manufacturing data in the U.S. Comments from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, who said that the ECB would be open to buying government bonds, if needed have buoyed U.S. stocks somewhat in the afternoon trade, but gains petered out. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.07% ended 1.5 points higher at 2,041.32. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.07% added 13 points, or 0.1%, to 17,647.75. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.37% closed 17.5 points, or 0.4%, lower at 4,671."

"- Higher starts for both the Hong Kong and Shanghai share markets, brought on by Monday's launch of the Stock Connect program, had almost disappeared half an hour into trading, with concern surfacing as new data out of China showed the bad-debt ratio for major banks had jumped to a four-year-high. The Hang Seng Index HSI, -1.21% moved off its 0.9% opening gain to trade with a loss of 0.5%. Over on the mainland, the Shanghai Composite IndexSHCOMP, -0.19% also gave up most of its initial advance of 1.2% to trade with a gain of just 0.2%. Earlier in the morning, Hong Kong and Shanghai authorities announced that the long-awaited Stock Connect, allowing direct trade between the two markets, had officially started, allowing foreign individudal investors to buy mainland Chinese stocks for the first time ever. "

"-The U.S. dollar moved lower against the euro on Friday, after U.S. a report of consumer sentiment indicated that expectations for higher inflation fell. The consumer -sentiment report suggests that the Federal Reserve may be in no rush to raise rates.

The euro EURUSD, +0.12%   moved up $1.25 against the dollar on Friday from $1.2475 late Thursday. The shared currency had been trading flat to down against the dollar, on the heels of an upbeat U.S. retail sales report. The euro climbed higher, however, after a sentiment survey indicated that consumer expectations of rising prices fell. The WSJ Dollar Index BUXX, -0.06%  was down fractionally 0.2%, to 79.89, while ICE Dollar Index DXY, -0.15% a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six currencies, notched lower to 87.54 from 87.82 on Thursday."

FCPO- Where It Is Going ?

Most of us know that this currently it is a sideways market with no force gaining the upper hand yet. When the price dipped too low, Bulls will likely take advantage and support price from going lower and when the price is rising too fast, profit taking will kick in to take control. No one is getting the edge here, thus no trend is running either. I am talking about medium term trend traders and slightly longer term trend traders, I believe these types of traders might not getting or getting lesser cheese this month. Just look at the hourly chart and daily, a swift pull back with tons of zig zag price action in hourly chart. Most trend traders are getting their positions breaking even or likely, cutting losses. I might be wrong about cutting losses but it is somehow close. Points is, these are the times where trend traders hurt, and I hope it is not for long. Back to the palm oil outlook, the new benchmark Feb is likely moving within 2,286 ~ 2,193 this week. We might be looking at some new direction if the market breach either of these range. For external fundamental, stocks level is still high, too high for price surge for the moment and demand is consistently weaker. Palm oil rival, soy oil is still Bearish from where it stood, the Dec contract was traded at 32.35 cents per pound, up about 0.25 cents as the time of writing. For today, pivot support for Feb contract is located around 2,214 while resistance is pegged at 2,252.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2252
R1= 2242
S1= 2214
S2= 2196
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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