Friday, November 7, 2014

FCPO: Bulls Are Having Hard Times 6th Nov 2014

Thursday, 6th Nov 2014. Palm oil futures is heading down for some correction after breaking above previous resistance level but the path to northern is not all smooth. Other news to follow.

"-The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at new highs on Wednesday, as an upbeat report on the labor market, and results that left Republicans with a Senate majority, lifted stocks. Investors appeared to give the service sector data a pass, which showed it has been growing at a somewhat slower pace. S&P 500 SPX, +0.57% gained 11.46 points, or 0.6%, to 2,023.56, with utilities and energy sector stocks leading the gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.58%  jumped 100.69 points, or 0.6%, to 17,484.53. The Dow industrials hit fresh records in tandem with the Dow transports and Dow utilities. A rare occurrence, dubbed Dow Trifecta has happened only 26 times in the history of the averages. The last time this happened was on April 25, 2007, according to FactSet. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.06%  lagged the main benchmarks and closed down 2.91 points or 0.1%, at 4,620.72."

"-Hong Kong stocks enjoyed some slim gains in early Thursday trading, with the Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.15% up 0.1%, rubbing out a little of its 0.6% loss in the previous session. The gains came as Hong Kong's H-share index fell 0.2%, and Shanghai's Composite Index SHCOMP, +0.25% edged 0.1% higher in initial trades."

"-U.S. crude-oil futures settled higher Wednesday after a U.S. supply report showed a smaller-than-expected increase in crude inventories. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in December CLZ4, +0.31%   rose $1.49, or 1.9%, to settle at $78.68 a barrel. That snapped a four-session losing streak that took prices to their lowest in three years. It was also oil’s largest one-day gain in nearly two weeks."

FCPO- It Is Not Always How It Seems To Be

What we thought for FCPO Jan to continue rally at least amid the expectation of better demand as palm oil substance will be use on bio-diesel fuel in Malaysia that has started. Plus the palm oil export duty exemption may not help much for the moment due to Soy oil weakness so far. Market is having hard time rallying after hitting it high at 2,345 last Friday. Most medium term trend trader might find it challenging to held on Long positions due to recent steep correction. As it market is just letting go, maybe for the time being. The Bulls will come back if there is some stimulating news such as further increase in demand, maybe ?? Or continue to falter due to stockpiles rising. Back to the outlook, we are likely to expect lower opening on palm oil futures today due to overnight weakness in Soy oil. Soy oil for Dec contract is doing 32.62 as the time of writing, that was 0.50 cents lower than yesterday value on 6.00pm GMT. Even though palm oil futures has been tanking recently, long term price perspective remain Bullish. Reason behind were multiple formation on higher high and higher low on daily chart and until we see a new lower low and lower high in daily chart, there would not be any downside trend form yet. Pivot point for support is located around 2,233 while resistance is pegged at 2,280.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2308
R1= 2280
S1= 2233
S2= 2214
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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