Tuesday, August 19, 2014

FCPO: We Are Yet Out Of The Jungle 19th AUg 2014

Tuesday, 19th Aug 2014. Palm oil futures is still subject to fall further as sentiment on palm oil output and stocks are still high. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks finished with strong gains Monday, helped by deal news and easing Ukraine-Russia tensions. A better-than-expected reading on the housing market also boosted sentiment and kicked off a big week for economic data. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.85% rose 16.68 points, or 0.9%, to close at 1,971.74, adding to its 1.2% weekly gain last week. The benchmark index stands just 0.8% off its July 24 record close, as it’s bounced back from a slump in late July and early August.The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.06% jumped 175.83 points, or 1.1%, to finish at 16,838.74. The blue-chip barometer achieved its biggest point gain since Aug. 8. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.97%  climbed 43.39 points, or 1%, to 4,508.31, scoring its highest close since March 2000. Yahoo Inc. YHOO, +2.50%  and Google Inc. GOOGL, +1.54% GOOG, +1.51%  rose 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively, as tech stocks enjoyed broad gains."

"- Here are the closing levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) flat ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) flat ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) up 0.6% ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) up 0.4% ; Seoul (Kospi) down 0.5% ; Taipei (Taiex) down 0.7%."

"- Oil futures dropped again Monday, as investors pushed geopolitical concerns surrounding violence and unrest in Ukraine and Iraq to the back burner. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in September CLU4, +0.26%  fell 94 cents, or 0.9%, to close at $96.41 a barrel. October Brent crude LCOV4, +0.07%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $1.93 to $101.60, its lowest finish in more than a year."

"-CPO Futures End Marginally Lower
KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices ended marginally lower yesterday due to the prevailing negative sentiment, a dealer said. Phillip Futures derivative product specialist David Ng said expectation of higher production and stocks level weighed heavily on prices. Spot month September 2014 fell RM8 to RM2,099 a tonne, October 2014 declined RM6 to RM2,087 a tonne, November shed RM3 to RM2,088 a tonne and December 2014 eased RM6 to RM2,129. Volume slipped to 40,507 lots from 44,266 lots recorded on Friday while open interest increased to 283,460 contracts from 205,112 contracts previously. On the physical market, August South slipped RM30 to RM2,110 a tonne.Bernama"


FCPO- Do Not Hope For Recovery Too Soon


We are yet out of the Bearish market or this Bearish momentum is come to an end whatsoever. There is no conducive sign for us to take into consideration yet even palm oil futures prices have fall to five years low. The only intelligent guesses you can make will be, this Bearish market is yet over. More weakness is possible with current active output due to good weather and this will subsequently increase palm oil stocks to 1% to 4% gradually. With this in mind, there is no telling where is the next support or where palm oil futures Bearish momentum will run-off its steam. Moving on, we are looking at slightly higher opening today as Soy oil futures manage to recover slightly above 30.02 cents as the time of writing. But bear in mind that we are yet out of negative price movement yet. The new benchmark Nov contract can fall below 2,000 level this month if there is not much good news from export figures, ITS and SGS cargo surveyors. Technically, without incorporating any fancy indicators or calculation, we might looking at first resistance level around 2,095 followed by 2,104 level while support is located around 2,080 followed by 2,074 level. The Nov contract is likely recover further if the first resistance level broken, and bad news if it manage to breach below 2,080 level today. More weakness is expected anything below 2,080 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2104
R1=2095
S1=2080
S2=2074

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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