Thursday, August 14, 2014

FCPO: Palm Oil Price Is Still Bearish 14th Aug 2014.

Thursday, 14th Aug 2014. Forget what you saw for the past few sessions this week, palm oil price is no doubt still in Bearish mode and we are yet knowing anything about where is the next support. Other news to follow.

"- The U.S. stock market closed with modest gains on Wednesday, led by advances in the health-care and technology sectors. The main benchmarks gained in the three of the past four sessions, bouncing off the lows reached last week. Gains on the Nasdaq Composite were led by biotechnology companies, with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB +0.01%   up 2.2%. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +1.02% added 44.87 points, or 1%, to 4,434.13. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA +0.55%  added 91.26 points, or 0.6%, to 16,651.80.

The S&P 500 SPX +0.67%  climbed 12.97 points, or 0.7%, to 1,946.72. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.VRTX +3.91%   led gainers." 
"-Here are the closing levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) up 0.4% ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) up 0.8% ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) up 0.1% ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) down 0.3% ; Seoul (Kospi) up 1% ; Taipei (Taiex) up 0.7%."
"-U.S. oil supplies rose by 1.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 8, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. That contrasted with expectations of a fall by 2 million barrels, according to analysts surveyed by Platts. Supplies of gasoline decreased by 1.2 million barrels, and stockpiles of distillates, which include heating oil, were down by 2.4 million barrels, the EIA added. Analysts polled by Platts had expected gasoline stocks to decline 1.5 million barrels, and distillate stocks were seen up 250,000 barrels. Crude-oil for September delivery CLU4 -0.24% recently traded at $96.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, off 47 cents, or 0.4%. It was trading around $97.20 a barrel before the supply report. "

FCPO- No Support In Sight

With the rate of Soy oil and majority of the edible commodity falling, there is no telling where is the next support for palm oil price. As of writing, Soy oil futures dipped to multi year to 33.73 cents per pound, making it the worse losses so far. Palm oil futures is likely following its rival oil foot steps soon. For start, palm oil futures might be opening twenty to thirty points lower today. Soy oil futures is likely set the tone for the palm oil opening bell and there would not be any different for today. Both palm oil technical and fundamental ground are still Bearish. MPOB reported very Bearish news as output and palm oil stocks rose 6.1% and 1.5% respectively, and export was down 2.3%. Not only that, technical outlook has been Bearish as well with series of lower high and lower lows can be found on daily chart. Even most of the time frame was Bearish all this time, shorter time frame traders or intraday traders will have better flexibility to navigate their Long or Short positions throughout the day. Never overnight a position if you are an intraday trader, I saw too many example intraday trader turned into overnight trader, especially holding on losing position. And of course, shrinking their account equity after that, not knowing what to do or what to expect even after numerous guide provided. These inferior traits that applied in trading business will only derive one result, blowing up a capital account fast. The way that a trader can progress would be, learn how risk work, how to manage it and at the end knowing when to stop and when to hold on. Unfortunately, most instances I saw was traders misplaced their hopes and fear. They are fearful when they are right, hopeful when they are wrong. Both of these behaviour are destructive weapon you brought in when trading. To sum up on today outlook, palm oil futures is still Bearish on every time frame, be it short term or long term, most price recovery to pivot resistance level is a good place to go Short.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2218
R1= 2197
S1= 2159
S2= 2142
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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