Tuesday, June 17, 2014

FCPO: Palm Oil Futures Rose On Dry Weather Concern 17th Jun 2014

Tuesday, 17th Jun 2014. The new benchmark month September contract went up another 0.15% yesterday amid dry season on Malaysia. Other news to follow.

"The U.S. stock market ended Monday's choppy trading session marginally higher. The main benchmarks dipped in and out of negative territory as investors weighed upbeat economic reports and deal news against concerns over escalating sectarian violence in Iraq. Investors favored utilities and energy stocks, while financials and materials were shunned. The S&P 500 SPX +0.08% closed 1.62 points, or 0.1%, higher at 1,937.78. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.03%added 5.27 points to 16,781.01. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.24% ended the day up 10.45 points, or 0.2% at 4,321.11."

"-Japanese stocks fell Monday in a mixed session for Asia, as concerns about an escalating conflict in Iraq drove the yen higher. Iraq’s descent into chaos, and concerns about a broader civil war, pushed oil prices higher and sent investors to the yen, Asia’s safe-haven currency.

The stronger yen translated into falls for the Nikkei Average JP:NIK +0.52% ,which ended down 1.1% at 14,933.29. Higher oil prices pushed energy companies’ shares higher. In China, the Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP -0.60%  gained 0.7% to 2,085.98, as China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. CN:600028 -0.58%   added 1.6% and China Oilfield Services CN:601808 +0.35%  rose by 2.6%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO -0.19%  ended up 0.1%, though some miners fell amid declining prices for spot iron ore, which slid 0.7% on Friday to a 21-month low. Concerns over the use of iron ore as collateral for finance deals and allegations of fraud involving commodities stored in China continue to rattle the market. South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.24% was up 0.1% to 1,993.59, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.42%  lost 0.1% to 23,300.67, and Singapore’s Straits Times IndexSG:STI -0.38%   was up 0.1% late in Asia.

"- Oil futures held steady but near nine-month highs Monday, erasing or trimming earlier gains on expectations Iraq’s main oil-producing areas will remain insulated from the sectarian violence sweeping the north of the country as Sunni militants battle the Iraqi government.
July crude oil CLN4 -0.18%   fell a penny to close at $106.90 a barrel on Nymex after earlier trading above $107 a barrel, ending a three-session winning streak. Prices last week jumped 4.1%, the largest weekly percentage gain since the week ended Dec. 6. They had seen their highest settlement since Sept. 18, 2013. The August contract for Brent crude UK:LCOQ4 -0.26% , the European benchmark, fell 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $112.86 a barrel, following gains of roughly 4% last week."

FCPO- Dry Season And Ramadhan Festival Help Price To Recover

Palm oil futures have more reasons to recover for the moment amid El Nino season and some push of demand from Ramadhan festive celebration this coming July. There is no surprise market is taking heed of the dry weather condition and upcoming Ramadhan festival for further price recovery. Although market have all the reasons to go up, it does not necessary have to recover all the way or excessively. The word excessive would letting the benchmark Sept to recover up to previous resistance level around 2,550, maybe not for the month of June as the export data still show negative shipments for the moment. Technically, it was a V shape recovery so far with the benchmark Sept recovering up to 2,448 level so far. A more conservative trader would want to wait for higher low and higher high to form on at least hourly chart before deciding any course of action to take in the market. Right now, there is yet any Bullish candle formation mentioned just now form on hourly chart. If you zoom into 5 minute chart, there are more action you can take part in. Long setup is possible if the Sept contract does went up above 2,438 level later today, while a solid Short setup is realize if the price went down below 2,420 level. After the position is filled either for Long or Short setup, trader must place a protective stop loss and take profit orders with 10 points apart from that entry level. By doing just that, you will be heading off to be a better trader that exercise full trading plan regardless of any condition in the market. In my opinion, there is nothing else you can do by executing your exit strategy spot on. For today, pivot support is located around 2,406 while resistance is pegged at 2,442.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2456
R1= 2442
S1= 2417
S2= 2406
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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