Thursday, June 19, 2014

FCPO: Temporay Bullish Factor, Dry Weather. 19th Jun 2014

Thursday, 19th Jun 2014. The palm oil futures for Sept contract surge about 34 points to end at 2,465 level yesterday, the highest since 29th May 2014. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday, gaining the most in four weeks, after the Federal Reserve chief signaled no hurry to raise rates. The benchmark S&P 500 reached its 20th closing record of 2014 after four consecutive days of gains, rapidly picking up steam as Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen spoke during a press conference following the Fed’s policy statement. She was vague about when the Federal Reserve could first hike rates, saying there could be “considerable time” between when the bond taper ends and hikes begin. And she said the Fed was not concerned about the stock market’s run to record highs. The S&P 500 SPX +0.77% added 14.99 points, or 0.8%, to 1,956.98, the largest one-day percentage gain in four weeks. It also took out its June 9 intraday record, hitting a new high of 1,957.81. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA +0.58%  gained 98.13 points, or 0.6%, to 16,906.62. It had been about 17 points lower before the Federal Reserve’s policy statement was released at 2 p.m. Eastern. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.59% ended the day up 25.60 points, or 0.6% at 4,362.84, its highest since April 2000."

"-Asian stocks were little moved Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy statement later in the day, though a weaker yen helped Japanese shares higher. Investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve’s statement, waiting for an update on the direction of monetary policy in the world’s largest economy. The U.S. central bank is expected to announce another $10 billion reduction in its bond-buying program to $35 billion a month. The Nikkei Average JP:NIK +1.40%  rose for the second consecutive day, and was last up 0.4%, amid yen weakness. The dollarUSDJPY +0.03%  rose 0.3% overnight to cross the ¥102 mark, and was steady during Asian trade at ¥102.15. In Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng IndexHK:HSI +0.36%   was flat, Chinese property developers fell after signs of further weakness in China’s housing market. Average new home prices rose 5.4% from a year earlier in May, compared with a 6.4% gain in April. China Resources Land HK:1109 -1.21%   CRBJF -7.07%  fell 0.7% in Hong Kong, and Evergrande Real Estate Group HK:3333 +0.99%  fell 1.8%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.89%  lost 0.1% as resource companies remained in focus."

"-The price gap between the Brent and WTI oil futures widened further Wednesday as traders weighed bearish U.S. supply data and a hint of quicker Federal Reserve rate hikes against continued strife in Iraq. Nymex WTI crude oil for July delivery CLN4 +0.31% , the U.S. benchmark, fell 39 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $105.97 a barrel, adding to a 54-cent loss on Tuesday. Oil extended losses after the Fed said it expects interest rates to rise at a slightly faster pace in 2015 and 2016. On the ICE exchange, Brent oil for August delivery UK:LCOQ4 +0.01% , which is the most sensitive to developments in Iraq, rose 85 cents, or 0.7%, at $114.30 a barrel, hitting its highest level in nine months as Sunni militants and Iraqi government forces battled for control of the nation’s largest refinery."


FCPO- Dry Weather Spur Recovery


Palm oil futures is heading for some serious recovery if there is some good news on the export data this coming 20th Jun 2014, Friday. If that event materialize, we are likely to see the Sept futures contract would be able to surge passed 2,500 easily. The benchmark Sept went above at least three weeks high with higher volume recorded, signalling strong interest for the Buyers to keep the price rallying for the moment. The good news most trader are waiting would be the fist higher low and higher high have formed on hourly time frame chart. This particular Bullish candle formation is one of the promising sign for the market to continue rally, technically. A higher low would likely signifies strong support for the price to recover after a mild sell-off or profit taking. While a higher high is likely represent fresh Buyer that came into the market and push the price even higher. All these collective Buying action will result in pro-long price recovery that might range from 50 points to 250 points recovery from 2,362 level. We should be getting better prospect for sustain rally if there is no surprise sell-off in Soy oil market. As the time of writing, the actively traded Soy oil is trading at around 40.20 per pound, the highest since 27th May 2014. For today, pivot support is located 2,499 while resistance is pegged at 2,489.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2489
R1= 2477
S1= 2499
S2= 2433
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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