Tuesday, December 10, 2013

FCPO: Expecting Weak Export 10th Dec 2013

Tuesday, 10th Dec 2013. Palm oil futures is dropping from its previous 2,692 peak after the benchmark Feb reached 2,689 yesterday session. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks nudged higher on Monday, sending the S&P 500 to a record close, as investors were largely unfazed by a trio of Federal Reserve officials suggesting a stimulus reduction could come next week. The S&P 500 index SPX +0.18%  rose 3.28 points, or 0.2%, to 1,808.37, topping its prior record close achieved on Nov. 27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.03%  gained 5.33 points, or less than 0.1%, to close at 16,025.53, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.15% advanced 6.23 points, or 0.2%, to 4,068.75."

"-Asian stocks jumped higher on Monday after strong economic data from the world’s two largest economies helped sentiment, while a profit warning from QBE Insurance Group in Sydney weighed on Australian stocks. In China, Hong Kong's Hang Seng IndexHK:HSI +0.29% rose 0.3% and the Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP +0.05%  rose less than 0.1%.

Elsewhere in the region, South Korea's Kospi KR:SEU -0.49%  gained 1%, Taiwan's Taiex rose 0.9% and Indonesia's JSX ID:JAKIDX +0.80%   was up 0.9%."

"-January Soybeans finished up 18 1/4 at 1343 3/4, 3 off the high and 19 1/4 up from the low. March Soybeans closed up 16 1/4 at 1326 3/4. This was 18 1/4 up from the low and 3 1/4 off the high. January Soymeal closed up 11.3 at 438.7. This was 12.1 up from the low and 0.8 off the high. January Soybean Oil finished down 0.27 at 40.22, 0.5 off the high and 0.05 up from the low. March soybeans closed moderately higher on the session and experienced the highest close since September 18th. The move over the December 2nd peak helped spark additional technical buying but solid demand from China and a surge higher in December (and cash) meal helped to support. Nearby meal futures surged more than $15.00 to help support the market. January oil closed down about 25 on the day. Exporters reported a sale of 290,000 tonnes of US soybeans sold to China with 230,000 for the 2013/14 season and 60,000 for 2014/15 season. The China soybean buying was a bit of a surprise as traders believe China has already booked nearly all of the demand for US soybeans through February and with a record South America crop on the way that demand will shift to mainly South America from now on. The China demand was partially offset by the excellent weather in the forecast for South American crops. Weekly export inspections hit 60.4 million bushels as compared with 54.9 million the previous week and just 19.35 million necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the entire marketing year."

FCPO- It Would Not Be An Easy Ride Up. 

Palm oil futures is correcting from the peak yet again yesterday after the benchmark Feb fell sharply right after it hit its high at 2,689 level. News and survey from the industry have led the market to believe export would reduce swiftly due to slow demand. Most of the country which import palm oil have gradually reduce due to high palm oil inventories. On our local scene, slow export undoubtedly increase palm oil stockpiles, a bad sign for palm oil further recovery. Technically, the benchmark Feb fall back into the range trading session, likely for this week. Price for the benchmark Feb is likely hovering within 2,692~2,600 level. Any break through above or below this range would likely force the price to rally further or to fall even deeper. Trade plan for today would be going Short if the benchmark Feb starting to correct after it hit 2,660 level (immediate resistance) or go Long if the market starting to recover after it went down to 2,629 level (immediate support level). Price action on hourly chart remain positive with series of higher lows and higher highs are formed for the past five weeks since 7th Nov 2013.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2707
R1= 2677
S1= 2629
S2= 2611
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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