Thursday, December 12, 2013

FCPO: Congestion At The Top !!! 11th Dec 2013

Thursday, 12th Dec 2013. Palm oil futures continue to record choppy trading session this week as slow export hurt positive sentiment for the price to recover. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks dropped sharply on Wednesday, suffering their worst losses in more than a month, as investors digested the Washington budget deal that could give the Federal Reserve another reason to scale back its bond-buying program soon. The S&P 500 SPX -1.13% fell 20.40 points, or 1.1%, to close 1,782.22, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.81%shed 129.60 points, or 0.8%, to finish at 15,843.53. Each index endured its worst loss since Nov. 7. The Nasdaq CompositeCOMP -1.40% slid 56.68 points, or 1.4%, to end at 4,003.81. "

"-Stocks in Shanghai and Hong Kong led Asia's losses Wednesday, with Chinese banks falling on concerns about liberalization's impact on their bottom lines, while a stronger yen weighed on Japanese stocks. The Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP -1.49% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng IndexHK:HSI -1.71%   closed 1.5% and 1.7% lower, respectively, after news that China's four state-owned banks and a former state policy bank will issue a total of 19 billion yuan ($3.1 billion) of negotiable certificates of deposit, the latest step in China's move toward less-restricted interest rates. Liberalization has prompted concerns that the banks will face short-term pressure on their profits."

"-January Soybeans finished up 5 3/4 at 1344, 1 1/2 off the high and 9 1/2 up from the low. March Soybeans closed up 6 1/2 at 1328 1/2. This was 10 1/4 up from the low and 1 1/2 off the high. January Soymeal closed up 0.6 at 438.9. This was 2.5 up from the low and 1.9 off the high. January Soybean Oil finished up 0.29 at 40.4, 0.16 off the high and 0.28 up from the low."

FCPO: Still Trap In The Woods. 


It was a tough trading session so far for these few weeks as there is less promising direction on medium term. Most of the medium term trader that use hourly and 30 minutes time frame chart or some would known them as swing trader may have a tough time trading in CPO market recently. At least I am one of them, really. Back to the market outlook, recent weakness in export figures have curb price from rallying amid slower demand would encourage stockpiles to build up. Not only that, active harvest would also increase the rate of palm oil production towards year end. With most of the fundamental pointing down, we are looking at medium term correction if the benchmark Feb went down below 2,600 level this and coming week. On the technical side, long term overview has changed from uptrend to sideways, and it is not a good sign. A paused on the top side may brought more skeptical Buying interest and at the same time boost Selling interest. Bulls that are losing their steam to draw more fresh Buyers due to a sideways or ranging sessions that lasted for weeks are stern warning that market would come down if it blow up certain support level. For today, watch out for the first support level at 2,626 followed by 2,600 support level. Any price that goes down beyond the first support level is a good sign to go Short straight away. Pivot resistance for the benchmark Feb is located around 2,644 level, today.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2658
R1= 2644
S1= 2621
S2= 2612
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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