Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Palm Oil Bullish Momentum On Hold, Probably Temporary 29th Oct 2013

Tuesday. 29th Oct 2013. Alright ladies and gents, no need to get upset when the market retrace swiftly from the previous five weeks high recently. It is ripe for some downward adjustment anyway. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stock indexes posted a narrowly mixed finish in choppy trading Monday, with the S&P 500 setting a record high for a second straight session after an industrial-production reading beat expectations but a pending-home-sales gauge missed forecasts. Investors also are focused on after-the-bell results from Apple Inc. and a Federal Reserve meeting later this week. The S&P 500 SPX +0.13%   rose 2.34 points, or 0.1%, to 1,762.11. Consumer staples and health care were among the best-performing S&P 500 sectors, while utilities and materials lagged. "

"- Oil futures settled higher Monday for a third consecutive session as traders searched for clues on when Federal Reserve policy makers will begin to scale back stimulus. Against this backdrop, crude for December delivery CLZ3 -0.37%  tacked on 83 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $98.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange."

"-November Soybeans finished down 28 3/4 at 1271 1/4, 30 off the high and 1 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 25 1/2 at 1268. This was 1 up from the low and 26 1/4 off the high.

December Soymeal closed down 8.8 at 414.7. This was 2.7 up from the low and 9.5 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.37 at 40.36, 0.85 off the high and 0.06 up from the low. November soybeans closed 28 3/4 cents lower on the session and fell down to the lowest level since October 16th. Very strong demand news and continued strong cash basis failed to attract new buying interest and the more talk of the big crop helped to spark long liquidation selling. Basis and spreads seem to be working enough to attract producer selling and flat price continues to move lower based on higher than expected yield and good weather for a bumper (and record) South American crop. Long liquidation selling was also noted as a bearish force today. Traders believe this afternoon's crop progress update will show soybean harvest near 78% complete. Private exporters reported daily sales of 115,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China and 115,000 tonnes of US soybeans to unknown destination. Weekly export inspections for the week ending October 24th came in at 83.6 million bushels from 59.9 million last week and 47.4 million the previous week. Exports need to average just 24.9 million bushels per week to reach the USDA forecast for the entire season."

FCPO- It Is Hammer Time. 

Palm oil futures is retracing from its five weeks high starting last Wednesday as the market foresee slower than expected data on export. Both cargo surveyors announced that palm oil export for the 1-25th Oct vs Sept barely touch 3% positive. Stronger Ringgit and recent anticipation on 3.3% increase in production due to improve yield. Gradual reduce in demand and active production would dampen the strength for the price to recover further. Along with continuous weakness in Soy oil as well, palm oil futures is likely open lower today. Trading theme for this week would be mostly ranging session where 2,484 will serve as major resistance level while 2,420 will act as immediate support level. This theme applies to long term or weekly perspective as well. For intraday or short term outlook, market could open lower and continue to travel down close to today first pivot support level around 2,429 and recover on afternoon session. Upside will be strongly capped at 2,484~2,486.  

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2513
S1= 2429
S2= 2399
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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