Thursday, October 31, 2013

Palm Oil Futures Hits Multi Months High. More Rally Likely 31th Oct 2013

Thursday, 31th Oct 2013. Palm oil futures rallied up to 34 months high yesterday when the benchmark Jan hit 2,573, a level unseen for a long time. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks fell sharply Wednesday as bond yields shot up after the Federal Reserve said it will continue its $85-billion-a-month in asset purchases and commented on the economic outlook. After an initial zigzag reaction, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.39% fell more than 100 points and was lately down 68 points, or 0.4%, to 15,611. It was off about 23 points before the 2 p.m. decision. The S&P 500 Index SPX -0.49% fell 12 points, or 0.7%, to 1,760. The Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP -0.55% declined 28 points, or 0.7%, to 3,924."

"-Chinese stocks jumped Wednesday, with strong gains in Hong Kong and Shanghai, while the rest of Asia moved higher ahead of the conclusion of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

A number of factors conspired to create the sharp movement higher in China, pushing Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +2.00% to end up 2% and the Shanghai CompositeCN:SHCOMP +1.48%  up 1.5%."
"- Oil futures settled lower Wednesday, with a U.S. government report showing a hefty increase in crude-oil supplies for a sixth straight week, and a widely-expected decision by the Federal Reserve to continue its monetary-stimulus measures sending prices to their lowest close in four months. Crude oil for December delivery CLZ3 -0.23%  fell $1.43, or 1.5%, to settle at $96.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Tracking the most-active contracts, futures prices settled at their lowest level since June 28."

"-November Soybeans finished up 8 1/2 at 1287 1/2, 5 off the high and 8 1/2 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 5 3/4 at 1276 1/2. This was 6 up from the low and 4 off the high. December Soymeal closed up 1 at 411.8. This was 1.8 up from the low and 2.7 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished up 0.65 at 41.62, 0.33 off the high and 0.74 up from the low. November soybeans closed 8 1/2 cents higher on the session and 19 1/2 cents up from yesterday's lows. Weakness in corn and wheat plus selling pressure in meal helped to pull the market off of the early highs and trading only slightly higher on the day into the mid-session but meal held support and closed higher and helped pull soybeans well up from the mid-session lows. A surge up in palm oil futures overnight, positive stock market action in China, ideas that the weekly export sales report for tomorrow morning (three weeks of data) will show active demand and wet Midwest weather were all factors to help support the market this morning. December oil closed 65 higher on the day and Dec meal closed $1.00 higher. For the 3-week sales updates, traders see 2.4 to 3.0 million tonnes for soybeans and near 1 million tonnes for meal. Weather looks favorable for South American crop development. Solid demand factors helped to support the market on the day and traders see no deliveries against the November futures on first notice day."

FCPO- The Question Is Whether This Is A Long Term Trend, Changing Role ? 

I know you got what it takes to go into the market, but does you have what it takes to stay and "let the profit run ?" Market does not know who and what you are but what it does best is taking your equity away from you when you are off guard. On contrary what you have read or seen before, nothing is easy trading in the market. No easy money, no easy catch, no easy trend to deal and definitely it is never easy dealing with your own shadow of doubt in your mind. And things got worse as the market always play mind tricks with you and other traders. It is really up to you, to suck it up and bin all the noise out of your trading desk. Back to the palm oil futures outlook, the benchmark Jan is gearing up for more rally at the moment judging from steady positive momentum from Soy oil so far. The most active traded Soy oil rose to 41.55 cents per pound as the time of writing, this was six sessions high. Onto technical outlook for palm oil futures, multiple higher highs and higher lows created from last few weeks help the benchmark Jan to gap up and rose to least 8 months high yesterday. No, this would not be the top yet and yes it is just a beginning to signify that the positive momentum has just gotten stronger. Despite the big rally, there was no major changes in the fundamental data so far, except folks in the market are expecting slower production figure due to released next month. By then, we all can point out that "buy the rumors, sell the news." Answer for the title above, yes long term trend has changed from ranging to Bullish when it broke previous major resistance around 2,503. We still have another major resistance around 2,613, set to breach if there is no major chances in the fundamental environment.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2598
R1= 2570
S1= 2517
S2=2492
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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