Tuesday, 1st Oct 2013. First of all, welcome to the month of Oct, the final quarter for year 2013. Where you can expect most of rally should occur on this quarter due to seasonal consumer spending. Other news to follow.
"-U.S. stocks dropped on Monday, taking a little shine off the third straight quarter of gains, as investors worried about a standoff on Capitol Hill and the likely duration of a possible government shutdown.After a 191-point decline, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.84% finished at 15,129.67, down 128.57 points, or 0.8%. The blue-chip index climbed 2.2% in September and 1.5% for the quarter. The S&P 500 index SPX -0.60% lost 10.2 points, or 0.6%, to 1,681.55, with consumer staples and energy the leading laggards among its 10 major industry groups, all of which fell. The index rose 3% in September and 4.7% for the quarter. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.27% declined 10.12 points, or 0.3%, to 3,771.48, rising 5.1% for the month and nearly 11% for the quarter."
"-A possible government shutdown in the U.S. loomed large in Asia Monday, sparking a selloff across the region’s stock markets. The Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +0.60% led the selloff with a 2.1% decline, closing slightly above session lows. The benchmark was also whipsawed by sharp moves in the U.S. dollar USDJPY +0.17% , which was last changing hands at 97.86 yen after earlier falling to a one-month low of ¥97.53. In Sydney, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO -0.03% dropped 1.7%, wiping out almost all gains added over the past two weeks as the index touched levels not seen since before the global financial crisis. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -1.49% declined 1.5% and South Korea’s benchmark Kospi Composite KR:SEU +0.67% fell 0.7%."
"-Crude-oil futures settled lower on Monday amid uncertainty about a possible U.S. government shutdown and after weaker-than-expected manufacturing data from China. Crude oil for November delivery CLX3 -0.07% shed 54 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $102.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices for a most-active futures contract, which closed last week with a 1.8% loss, marked their lowest settlement since July 3, according to FactSet data."
"-November Soybeans finished down 37 at 1282 3/4, 34 1/4 off the high and 2 3/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 36 1/2 at 1285. This was 2 1/2 up from the low and 33 1/4 off the high. December Soymeal closed down 12.9 at 405.4. This was 1.4 up from the low and 13.5 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.71 at 41.1, 0.7 off the high and 0.15 up from the low. November soybeans closed 37 cents lower on the session and pushed down to the lowest level since August 19th. The market also touched the 100-day moving average for the first time since August 15th. A combination of a slightly bearish stocks number, excellent harvest weather and speculative long liquidation selling helped to pressure. The USDA report was considered bearish against trade expectations. September 1st soybean stocks were pegged at 141 million bushels which was 17 million bushels above trade expectations. The range of estimates was 106 to 155 million bushels so the actual stocks number was considered bearish. The USDA adjusted their estimate for 2012 production higher by 18.6 million bushels which helped to push stocks up higher than expected. Stocks were down 17% from last year. Of the total, 39.6 million bushels were on-farm storage, up 3% from last year and off-farm storage was 101 million bushels, down 23% from last year. The June-August indicated disappearance was 294 million bushels which was down 41% from last year. News that the USDA revised 2013 spring wheat plantings down 600,000 acres from the August production report could insinuate that the USDA may be more likely to use FSA acreage data to adjust both corn and soybean acres lower. However, the market seems most concerned that average yield will be adjusted higher and this may have been the factor to help drive the market lower. Weekly export inspections came in at 14.3 million bushels which was a little lower than expected. Shipments need to average 27.5 million bushels per week to reach the USDA export forecast for the season. December soybean oil closed 71 lower and down to the lowest level since July of 2010. December meal closed down $12.90."FCPO- Wake Me Up When Sept Gone.
It is time to rise and shine as Sept is over today, welcome Oct and its positive calender on various major companies earning results. Year end should spur active consumer spending seasonally due to festive season and school holidays. What does this mean to the commodities market ? Of course we can expect some rally on various commodities price including palm oil futures and soy bean / oil prices as well. Externally, current high stockpiles and active productions figures are likely curbing price from recover substantially in the long run. But if you look on shorter term time frame, there are abundant of opportunity awaits. Technically, the benchmark Dec is attempting to reverse its current trend to Bullish. For the next Bullish confirmation, the benchmark Dec must at least breach above 2,330 level or previous high (significant) / resistance level. The rate of price changes is what every technical trader need to gauge his entry and exit simultaneously. This is what fundamental cannot provide to a chartist, objectivity. To trade using charts or technical, traders need to fully trust and dedicate their time and discipline to focus mainly on price and not other element such as fundamental or news. Price is the only indication for a technical trader to re-act, period. For today, pivot support for the Dec contract is located around 2,305 while resistance is pegged at 2,336.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2347
R1= 2336
S1= 2305
S2= 2285
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
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