Thursday, September 26, 2013

FCPO Testing The Low 26th Sept 2013

Thursday, 26th Sept 2013. Palm oil futures is likely retracing from most of the attempt to recover in the afternoon session when traders who went Long in the morning session probably due to increase export cover their positions in the afternoon session. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks dropped on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 index recording its longest decline since December, as a possible government shutdown overrode better-than-forecast economic reports.

“It’s been a very good year for the stock market, but people are pausing to worry about what is going on in Washington. One of the few things you can say about the stock market is it hates uncertainty,” said David Kelly, chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds. Down for a fifth session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.40% lost 61.33 points, or 0.4%, at 15,273.26. The S&P 500 SPX -0.27%   also fell for a fifth session, closing down 4.65 points, or 0.3%, to 1,692.77, with health care losing the most and financials the best performing among its 10 major industry groups. The loss streak is the longest since Dec. 28, a time that had Wall Street fretting as politicians argued over combined spending cuts and tax hikes dubbed the “fiscal cliff.” The index is up nearly 19% for the year."
"- Oil futures dropped for a fifth straight session on Wednesday after a weekly report showed a surprise climb in U.S. crude supplies. Crude oil for November delivery CLX3 -0.25%  shed 47 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $102.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the lowest settlement for a most-active contract since July 3, though the November contract last traded below $103 in early August, FactSet data show."

"-November Soybeans finished up 9 1/4 at 1321 3/4, 6 1/4 off the high and 15 1/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 9 1/4 at 1324. This was 15 up from the low and 6 off the high.
December Soymeal closed up 4.8 at 417.1. This was 6.0 up from the low and 2.3 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished unchanged at 42.09, 0.31 off the high and 0.18 up from the low. November soybeans closed 9 1/4 cents higher on the session and up 15 1/4 cents from the session lows. The market was trading 2 cents lower into the mid-session but expanded the daily range to 21 1/2 cents as strength in wheat and corn was enough to provide some support. Strength in the other grains and news of export demand helped to provide a boost as well. Talk of increased harvest pressure ahead and concerns over long liquidation selling from funds ahead of the USDA reports on Monday may have been a factor to limit the advance as short-term weather forecast turned a little drier. Private exporters reported the sale of 140,000 tonnes of US soybeans to unknown destination. December closed $4.80 higher on the day and December oil closed unchanged on the day and up from the early lows which were at the lowest trade since August 9th. Traders see weekly export sales for the morning to show sales of 2.3-2.8 million tonnes as compared with 923,300 tonnes last week and just 284,900 tonnes necessary each week to reach the USDA export projection for the year."

FCPO- More Weakness To Come. 

Medium term 2~3 days trend were no doubt a weak one, but you have to able to set your mind straight when you are trading with the trend. Even a short term trend will blew you away when you are riding on the wrong positions. The frustration of getting whipsawed when the market took your Short position out pre-maturely and then go back down can be a trading nightmare for traders who place their stops just above intraday's high. Now the question is whether the trader will re-enter the previous Short trade after it has stopped out ? Most of it would not as they watch the price dwindle down. This is the dilemma that every intraday traders have to face everyday. Well guess no more, to prevent this temporary whipsaw from happen, intraday trader should have a solid cut loss plan or worse case scenario first  but not placing their initial stop first. This is to ensure that the trader only cut his position only when it hit its worse case scenario but not when the price just test the intraday high / low and then went down / up right after that - Whipsaw. Worse case scenario should be not more than two times the value than your initial stops. Back to the market, medium term perspective remain weak judging from lower high and lower low formation on hourly chart. Nothing much has change so far as market is poised to weaken further right after yesterday export figure announcement. For today, pivot support for the Dec contract is located around 2,286 followed by 2,277  while resistance is pegged at 2,325.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2325
R1= 2310
S1= 2286
S2= 2277
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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