Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Volatile Week Ahead 26th Jun 2013

Wednesday, 26th Jun 2013. Index futures and commodities futures are trading actively volatile this week, which ATR starting to pick up and traders lining up to participate in any price range. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks rose sharply on Tuesday as Wall Street cheered upbeat economic data showing increases in durable-goods orders, new-home sales and consumer confidence. After closing at its lowest level since April 22 on Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.69%  on Tuesday climbed 100.75 points, or 0.7%, to end at 14,760.31, with only four of its 30 components ending in negative territory. During Tuesday’s session, the Dow rose as much as 152.47 points. The S&P 500 index SPX +0.95%  added 14.94 points, or 1%, to 1,588.03, with all of its 10 major sectors ending in positive territory. Telecommunications and financials posted the biggest sector gains."


"- Hong Kong stocks opened higher early Wednesday after a strong lead from Wall Street and regional markets, although extended losses in Shanghai capped their advance. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.5% to 19,948.72 in early trade after a string of recent losses, although it fell back below 20,000, after opening above the psychologically important level. "
'- Oil futures finished slightly higher on Tuesday as traders waited for supply data, then slipped in electronic trading after the first data release. Crude jumped Monday on news of pipeline closures in Canada, but one pipeline is now back in operation. Crude for August delivery CLQ3 -0.37% edged up 14 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $95.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract briefly moved above $96 on Tuesday, then dipped below $95 before recovering."

"-July Soybeans finished up 13 1/4 at 1525 1/4, 2 1/2 off the high and 18 1/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 5 at 1278 1/2. This was 9 1/4 up from the low and 4 3/4 off the high.
July Soymeal closed up 7.8 at 458.8. This was 7.8 up from the low and 0.7 off the high.
July Soybean Oil finished down 0.41 at 47.14, 0.73 off the high and 0.07 up from the low. The soybean market traded stronger throughout the session led by gains in the July contract. The crop conditions and planting report had a mixed bias for market direction in the new crop market with conditions ratings showing modest improvement but planting progress came in under market estimates. Underlying support in the old crop continue to stem from firm interior cash markets, mostly from processors. A well-followed oilseed market analyst released statements today that suggest prices for soybeans and major oilseeds are likely to fall in the months ahead as harvest begins in North America and Europe. The analyst estimates that total global 13/14 production for the 10 major oilseed crops could reach 484.50 million tonnes, up from 463.50 million in 12/13. Statistics Canada estimated that Canadian farmers will seed 19.7 million acres of canola, down 8% from 2012/13 but up from the prior estimate of 19.1 due to a decline in wheat intentions. Thoughts that US soybean planted acreage may come in much small than many analysts anticipate due to delays in IA, MN, and WI helped to support to the new crop market throughout the session."


FKLI- More Downside Risk Expected. 

If any market can grow horn and evolved, I would have to name FKLI is one of them, at least. The significant changes was not only the volume itself but overall market. ATR is also gradually pick up, prices can change from positive to negative the next minute, not hours. To sum up, price move with swift speed now rather than slow sluggish old FKLI on previous two years. Judging from market demography report, market participants such as foreign institutional traders maybe making their presence in the local derivative scene. Back to the index futures outlook, Bearish sentiment in the market is yet over as traders are still haunted by weak performance on external market such as U.S. Europe, and China equity market. The recent announcement by Federal Reserve that will cut back their bond buying programme force U.S equity traders to scale down their Long positions due to this negative news. Elsewhere in Europe and China, economy uncertainties continue to curb equity market to rally. Giving such scenario, FKLI is likely travelling on Bearish mode. Recent lower high and lower low formation on hourly and daily chart also gave away crucial negative or Bearish candle formation. Most rallies would induce trading participants to go Short for the moment. This week, pivot support for Jun contract is located around 1,715 while resistance is pegged at 1,753.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1753
R1= 1741
S1= 1722
S2= 1715


FCPO- Weaken But Yet Beaten ? 

Palm oil futures continue to get hammered by over stockpiles concern and insufficient demand to cope with nationwide palm oil supplies. Most of the gain you see on the early morning session is likely wipe out the next session as Bearish price outlook on palm oil futures remain the headlines throughout this week. The previous Thursday and Friday dual sessions gap down is the proof that the Bears are assuming control, at least for this week. Further evidence on Bears dominance would be turning down yesterday rallies up to 2,421 level. The benchmark Sept found strong rejection right after it hit 2,421 and the price came pouring down not long later. This week, most of the price outlook is likely remain Bearish judging on negative price action formed so far and ongoing weakness on Soy oil as well. Overnight Soy oil continue to weaken further yesterday and this is going to impact palm oil futures opening session today. Lower opening price on palm oil futures is expected this morning but mild rebound is expected if the Sept contract went down lower than 32 points below yesterday closing price at 2,412. For today, pivot support for the benchmark Sept is located around 2,384 while resistance is pegged at 2,423.


Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2434
R1= 2423
S1= 2398
S2= 2384

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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