Monday, June 24, 2013

Upside Pausing For FCPO 24th Jun 2013

Monday, 24th Jun 2013. Palm oil futures is likely heading another session of downside today judging on how weak the Soy oil has dropped overnight. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks eked out modest gains on Friday, but posted losses for the week, which was dominated by fears that the Federal Reserve may begin pulling back stimulus later this year.

After a very choppy trading session, the S&P 500 index SPX +0.27% gained 4.24 points, or 0.3%, to end at 1,592.43. It fell 2.1% for the week. Eight of the S&P 500’s 10 major sectors ended higher, with consumer staples leading gainers and information technology leading decliners. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.28% rose 41.08 points, or 0.3%, to 14,799.40, leaving it down 1.8% for the week. This was the Dow’s worst week since the one ended on April 19."

"- Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks tumbled Friday, extending losses from the previous day's selloff, after worries that the Federal Reserve would taper its bond purchases slammed commodities and U.S. shares. The Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.59% fell 1.9% to 20,002.61, after briefly sliding under the psychologically-important 20,000-point level for the first time in more than nine months. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost 2.3%, while in mainland Chinese trading action, the Shanghai Composite Index CN:SHCOMP -0.52% lost 1.9%. Shares of Chinese banks suffered big losses amid worries about high rates in the Shanghai interbank money markets, despite a Bloomberg report that the People's Bank of China had injected 50 billion yuan ($8.17 billion) after some short-term rates surged to a record on Thursday. "

"-Crude-oil futures fell on Friday, extending the previous session’s losses and snapping a two-week win streak. Crude for August delivery CLQ3 -0.15%  shed $1.45, or 1.5%, to settle at $93.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract swung to a weekly loss of $4.38 a barrel."

"-July Soybeans finished down 4 1/4 at 1493 1/4, 12 1/2 off the high and 4 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 11 1/2 at 1273 1/2. This was 5 3/4 up from the low and 11 3/4 off the high. July Soymeal closed up 2.1 at 447.7. This was 4.4 up from the low and 2.3 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished down 0.38 at 48.02, 0.49 off the high and 0.02 up from the low. The soybean market traded steady to lower for most of the session. The new crop market lost to old crop as basis continues to charge higher in processor markets. Traders noted that profit taking was active ahead of the weekend as traders see planting and conditions reports improving on Monday vs. week ago levels. The Midwest remains mostly warm and dry heading into the weekend with the exception of showers that are moving through areas of MN, northeast IA, southern WI, and northern IL. This could delay planting for some. The warmer temperatures should be perfect for crops that have been planted in the last 2 weeks. Options expiration for the July contract was today so much of the markets focus was on if the July contract will settle near the 1500 strike where a significant amount of open interest was held. Outside markets saw follow through weakness from yesterday with the US Dollar surging to the upside and US equities came off their overnight highs and traded lower for most of the session."



FCPO- Major Correction Ahead. 

Palm oil futures are reversing its current role from Bullish to Bearish gradually on medium term. The only barrier that set the Bulls and Bears apart would be the psychological support around 2,400 level. Bears will emerge victorious if the benchmark Sept manage to breach below that psychological support this week. The speed that accompanied with this weakness are swifter as the market has gapped down twice from previous Thursday and Friday. And things got worse when the market refuse to recover after the gapped down, and no attempt by the Bulls to try and push the price either. Bears have won easily, pushing down the price across the board. For the record, the Sept contract has weaken 2.8% from the 2,491 peak last week. 2.8% correction might not be a game changer for the Bears to declare long term victory over Bulls, but it is a stern warning that the market is losing its upside momentum. In fact, current positive momentum has halt when the market gapped down on previous Friday and never had the change to fill up the gap within 2,460~2,438. Watch out for any gap down again today as the Soy oil continue to create new low as the time of writing this morning.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2457
R1= 2447
S1= 2424
S2= 2411
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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