Friday, June 21, 2013

Pay Back Time !!! 21 Jun 2013

Friday, 21 Jun 2013. Both index futures and commodities futures went down on global demand weakness. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks tumbled on Thursday, with the S&P 500 suffering its worst session since November 2011, hit by fear that the Federal Reserve will scale back its bond buying later this year. Asian and European stocks, along with gold, oil and Treasurys, also posted steep declines. Disappointing Chinese data further hit sentiment. After dropping as much as 380 points intraday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -2.34% ended down 353.87 points, or 2.3%, to 14,758.32, with all of its 30 components in negative territory. It was the Dow’s largest one-day percentage decline since Nov. 7, 2012, the day after the U.S. presidential election. And it was the index’s biggest one-day point decline since Nov. 9, 2011. The S&P 500 index SPX -2.50% dropped 40.74 points, or 2.5%, to 1,588.19, marking its biggest decline since Nov. 9, 2011. All 10 of the index’s major industry groups ended lower, with consumer staples and utilities posting the biggest declines. Volume was brisk. More than 4.8 billion shares of New York Stock Exchange-listed shares traded hands, the second-largest volume day of the year. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -2.28% lost 78.57 points, or 2.3%, to 3,364.63."
"- Crude-oil futures dropped sharply on Thursday as the market grappled with a continued Chinese manufacturing slowdown and signals from the Federal Reserve that a reduction in monetary stimulus is in sight. Crude for July delivery CLN3 -3.36%  lost $2.84, or 2.9%, to settle at $95.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Thursday’s decline was the largest since Nov. 7, 2012. The July contract will expire at the end of Thursday."

"-July Soybeans finished down 25 1/2 at 1497 1/2, 24 1/2 off the high and 1 3/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 25 3/4 at 1285. This was 2 3/4 up from the low and 24 off the high.

July Soymeal closed down 8 at 445.6. This was 0.6 up from the low and 7.9 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished down 0.95 at 48.4, 0.99 off the high and 0.04 up from the low.  November soybeans traded sharply lower on the session as a better US weather forecast and weakness in outside markets helped to pressure. Sellers were more active with the jump in the US dollar and the weakening economic news out of China. Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at a sluggish 52,600 tonnes for the current marketing year and 108,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 161,100. For 3 consecutive weeks, export sales have failed to breach 100,000 tonnes although today's data was slightly better than a week ago. As of June 13th, cumulative sales stand at 101% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 98.5%. Net meal sales came in at 26,600 tonnes for the current marketing year, down sharply from week ago levels which maybe finally signaling a slowdown in demand. New crop sales were reported at 114,600 tonnes. Cumulative meal sales stand at 98.9% of the USDA forecast for the current marketing year versus a 5 year average of 84.8%. Net oil sales came in at a measly 700 tonnes for the current marketing year and no sales were reported for the next market year. Cumulative oil sales stand at 88.5% of the USDA versus a 5 year average of 79%. Sales of 7,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast."

FKLI- Pay Back Time

Stock index and index futures plunge on external market weakness after the U.S equities market fell sharply recently due to Federal Reserve intention to cut back bond buying and other asset buying programme. Market re-acted forcefully even though there is no official actions taken by the Fed yet. FOMC also stated that they would keep the low rate unchanged for the moment and kept silence on other asset buying plan. In other words, the fear and frantic concern over the possibilities of Fed cutting down their their QE have let to massive Sell-off across all the market. Our local stock index and index futures are not exception as the market open gap down about 1.2% on the opening bell today. Market is now travelling in no mans land where it will a challenge for intraday player to get in and squeeze out some profits due to tight range, Long overnight holders would have figure out whether the risk they are taking still worth as they are mostly likely praying for some technical rebound before the market closed. Traders who went Short before earlier, you might want to know where is your exit point or your trailing stop before the market recovered and took out most of your profit. There is something to be done when the market move and it does not stop there. Market is likely remain Bearish till the end of second quarter due to swift correction on other major market. Most index rally will induce more Sellers to step in and acquiring more Short positions.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1767.5
R1= 1763
S1= 1753
S2= 1747

FCPO- Massive Profit Taking Kicks In

Palm oil futures rally came to halt right after the market went up to four months high at 2,491 yesterday morning session. Once the new high formed price become unstable and gap down when the market resume on afternoon session, hinting more weakness to hit the market. And it does just that when it gradually moved lower and lower, prompting more Long holders to cover their position or turn their positions to Short. The frantic Selling comes alive on late afternoon session when the benchmark Sept starting to head south swiftly after it breached below 2,468 level. The Selling pressure force the Sept contract to close at 2,462 level, signifying strong Bears influence on the closing bell. Most of the palm oil weakness was contributed by recent Soy oil correction and it is likely to effect palm oil opening session today as overnight Soy oil retraced for another 1%. Technically, Sept contract overall outlook remain Bullish. The correction made yesterday may turn out to be another higher low if the market manage to rally above 2,484 level today but if this condition is not met and it go down instead, strong support area should be located around 2,453~2450 followed by 2,441~2,440. Watch out for probable head and shoulder candle pattern which might signifies major trend change on hourly time frame chart.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2503
R1= 2484
S1= 2453
S2= 2441

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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