Monday, June 17, 2013

Heading Into Range 17th Jun 2013

Monday, 17th Jun 2013. Palm oil futures is probably heading back into a ranging session this week amid uncertainties over market fundamentals. Other news to follow.

"-- U.S. stocks retreated on Friday, chalking up a third weekly loss in four, with investors on guard ahead of next week's monetary-policy decision by the Federal Open Market Committee. "We didn't get the pullback in May when we thought we would, so it looks like June is giving us some of that," said Andrew Fitzpatrick, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates Inc. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.70% fell 105.90 points, or 0.7% to 15,069.64, down 1.2% from last Friday's finish. The S&P 500 index SPX -0.59% shed 9.63 points, or 0.6%, to 1,626.73, off 1% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.63% declined 21.81 points to 3,423.55, leaving the technology-heavy index down 1.3% on the week."

"- Asian stocks rebounded Friday as eased worries about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and an improvement in U.S. economic data sparked relief buying across the region, with Japanese and Southeast Asian equities witnessing strong gains.

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +0.54%  climbed 1.9%, taking back some ground after the previous day’s 6.4% plunge, even as the dollar USDJPY +0.6081%  stayed under the ¥95 handle for most of the session after rising well above that level earlier in the day.Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.39%  added 0.4%, while the Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP +0.64% advanced 0.6% for its first higher finish in nine trading days. Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO -0.90%  finished 2% higher and South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU -0.16%  climbed 0.4%."

"- Crude-oil futures jumped Friday as traders eyed rising tensions in the oil-rich Middle East. Crude for July delivery CLN3 -0.17%  rose $1.16, or 1.2%, to settle at $97.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange."

"-July Soybeans finished up 6 1/4 at 1516 1/2, 5 1/2 off the high and 10 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 2 1/4 at 1298 1/4. This was 10 1/4 up from the low and 8 3/4 off the high. July Soymeal closed down 1.9 at 450.7. This was 1.4 up from the low and 6.0 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished up 0.64 at 48.48, 0.02 off the high and 0.68 up from the low. The soybean market ended the day mixed with the downside being led by the November contract while July soybeans probed into positive territory. The July/November spread pushed higher and the July contract traded both sides of the unchanged for most of the session. The old crop supply tightness as well as firm cash meal price continues to underpin the supportive tone. The bear camp seemed hesitant to push the short side from current price levels given the uncertain weather outlook and ahead of a very important planting progress report on Monday which some indicate could come in near 90%. NOPA will also release crush data from May on Monday which will be key to price direction next week. The 5 day outlook continues to look wet for areas of NE, IA, MO, and MN which may stall planting although good progress has been made in some key regions of the Corn Belt this week."

FCPO- Rallied Possible With Recent Soy Bean Oil Recovery

The new benchmark Sept will take over officially today but the most active months previously on Aug is likely remain the most volume traded for these two or three sessions. Palm oil futures recent rallies was made possible amid promising recovery made by Soy oil last Friday. Now, the trading ideas for this week would be hovering within these range or support and resistance level. The first short term support and resistance level will be 2,423~2,453 while the longer term support and resistance are located around 2,400~ 2,471 level. If the new benchmark Sept manage to breach the first short term support and resistance, we would expect the market to continue heading that break out direction at least to the long term support and resistance. And if the longer term support and resistance is violates, there might be new lead of medium term market direction. Referring to the previous post where I mentioned the medium term technical perspective has changed to Bearish, current condition of the market has become sideways when the Aug contract manage to rallied above 2,440 level last Friday. Keep watching for the first support and resistance level as it will provide ample trading opportunity around these area.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2462
R1= 2449
S1= 2413
S2= 2390
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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