Friday, June 14, 2013

Breaking The Silence 14th Jun 2013

Friday, 14th Jun 2013. Both index futures and commodities futures are breaking off their silence yesterday when both of these market went down below their respective support level. More news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday, with the S&P 500 index marking its best day in five months, bolstered by upbeat economic data and a late-session report in The Wall Street Journal that eased worries about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. U.S. stock indexes were already surging as positive economic reports overrode concern about the Japanese market, but rose to session highs in the wake of the Journal piece. Tallying its best session since Jan. 2, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index SPX +1.48%  rose 23.84 points, or 1.5%, to 1,636.36, with financials pacing gains that included all of its 10 major industry sectors. After falling as much as 41 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +1.21%rose as much as 207, and finished at 15,176.08, up 180.85 points, or 1.2%. After three consecutive sessions of losses, its longest such streak this year, Thursday’s gains cut the Dow’s weekly losses down to 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite index COMP +1.32%  added 44.94 points, or 1.3%, to 3,445.37."

"- Asian stocks sank Thursday as uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy led to more declines on Wall Street. Japanese shares stood out with massive losses and a move back into bear-market territory as a further rally in the yen thrashed exporters. The Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +1.92%  plummeted 6.4% to end at 12,445.38 in Tokyo for its sixth loss in seven trading days. The drop marked the benchmark’s decline for a seventh straight Thursday, including the 7.3% plunge on May 23. Meanwhile, China’s Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP -2.83% tumbled 2.8% as the markets reopened for the first time this week after a string of holidays, giving investors a chance to react to a string of downbeat economic data released over the weekend, including the monthly trade and inflation figures. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -2.19% skidded 2.2%, and South Korea’s KospiKR:SEU +0.49%  lost 1.4%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +1.15%  fell 0.6% to enter so-called correction territory — having dropped more than 10% from the highs reached in May. The benchmark declined despite official figures showing an unexpected improvement in employment trends during May."
"-Crude oil for July delivery CLN3 -0.10% on Thursday ended up 81 cents, or 0.8%, at $96.69 a barrel. The contract got a lift from better-than-expected reports on U.S. retail sales and jobless claims. Natural-gas futures also advanced, turning positive after a weekly supply figure was in the lower half of the range that analysts expected."
"-July Soybeans finished down 30 1/2 at 1510 1/4, 33 1/4 off the high and 3 3/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 13 3/4 at 1300 1/2. This was 12 1/2 up from the low and 18 1/2 off the high. July Soymeal closed down 8.8 at 452.6. This was 1.6 up from the low and 11.1 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished down 0.27 at 47.84, 0.46 off the high and 0.14 up from the low. The soybean market traded sharply lower for most of the day as traders took profits and after old crop export sales fell below market estimates. Meal sales were impressive once again which suggests crush demand may stay strong. Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at a measly 33,500 tonnes for the current marketing year, down from 48,400 tonnes the week prior. New crop sales were reported at 447,100 tonnes which made the sales total 480,600. As of June 6th, cumulative sales stand at 101% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 98.5%. The data suggests that old crop sales will need to slow down going forward or additional adjustments will need to be made to the downside for export demand going forward. Net meal sales came in at 97,700 tonnes for the current marketing year and 47,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 144,800. Cumulative meal sales stand at 98.5% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 84%. Sales of 8,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at 13,200 tonnes for the current marketing year and cumulative sales stand at 88.5% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 77.5%. Sales of 7,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast."

FKLI- Its About Time !!

After moving within the 1,800~1,755 range for few weeks, the spot month contract manage to break down below previous support level, finally. Market was effected mostly by the negative regional  overall performance on equity market. Most of the Asian market went sell-off yesterday, starting from Nikkei 225 and spread all over other major market such as SSE, STI and HSI. Local stock index and index futures went down about 1.9%, recording the highest sell-off percentage in single session this year. Of course we do saw the market went up temporary / frantically when the market open for trading on post election but yesterday down side was closed with solid negative candle or known as Bearish Marubozu candle. The sell-down below weekly support level quickly snowballed into a panic Shorting session throughout the trading day. Medium term technical perspective for stock index and index futures are likely shifted from sideways to downtrending market yesterday. Watch out for temporary technical rebound after yesterday extreme oversold reading and recent regional market recovery with Nikkei 225 going positive at 1.86% at the time of writing plus overnight Dow Jones Industrial that recovered about 1.21%. For today, pivot support for spot month contract is located around 1,726 while resistance is pegged at 1,756.50

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1776.5
R1= 1756.5
S1= 1726
S2= 1715

FCPO- Breaking The Initial Support

Palm oil futures made its downwards break out yesterday when the Aug contract went down below 2,439 level for the first time this week. There were a few hints before yesterday weakness strike. The benchmark Aug was actually trailing lower this week and closing the day with slight gains and losses for the past four three sessions before it decide to go down about 40 points lower on yesterday late afternoon session. Now, we have an impending sign for the market to turn into medium term Bearish when the benchmark Aug closes weaker than expected yesterday. Some may have relate yesterday weakness was due to recent Bearish price outlook on Soy oil futures but most technical traders would agree that there was less and less Buyer approaching 2,450~2,460 level this week. In another words, Bears were the clear winner on yesterday closing session. Volume and open interest were recorded slightly higher on yesterday sell-off while daily ATR was recorded picking up slightly above 31 points at the moment. For today, watch out for any temporary bounce back on early session and try to identify any fail rallies after the opening bell as we are likely to see some Short covering activities on opening session and prepare to Short if the benchmark Aug made another lower low below 2,411 level. Pivot support for Aug contract is located around 2,382 while resistance is pegged at 2,451.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2480
R1= 2451
S1= 2402
S2= 2382

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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