Monday, March 18, 2013

FKLI Headed For Correction. 18th March 2013

Monday, 18th March  2013. It is a red day for stock index and index futures as both of the market went down for major correction after recovering from previous week. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stock futures fell in Asia trading hours on Monday, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 121 points at 14,312.00, Nasdaq 100 futures down 28.50 points at 2,762.00 and S&P 500 futures down 17.30 points at 1,536.30 after weekend news that Cyprus plans to tax bank deposits as part of its bailout program. 

"-Japanese stocks followed other Asian markets and U.S. index futures sharply lower Monday amid global jitters over Cyprus's plan to impose a levy on bank deposits as part of its bailout program. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 2% to 12,314.66, with the Topix down 1.6%, even as Dow Jones Newswires reported that Cyprus and its prospective international lenders may change the plan to protect small depositors. With the bailout plan causing a run on banks in Cyprus, financials and exporters took an especially heavy hit in Tokyo.

"- Oil futures climbed Friday as investors weighed support from a weaker dollar against pressure from a drop in U.S. consumer sentiment, but prices still closed out the week almost 2% higher. Natural-gas futures, meanwhile, jumped almost 7% from last Friday for their fourth straight weekly gain following recent data showing tighter U.S. supplies. Crude oil for April delivery CLJ3 -1.25%  rose 42 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $93.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since Feb. 20, according to FactSet data."

"-May Soybeans finished down 10 1/2 at 1425, 20 1/4 off the high and 2 1/2 up from the low. July Soybeans closed down 5 1/4 at 1410 3/4. This was 3 1/2 up from the low and 15 off the high.
May Soymeal closed down 6 at 419.0. This was 1.2 up from the low and 8.9 off the high. May Soybean Oil finished up 0.58 at 49.92, 0.27 off the high and 0.58 up from the low. May soybeans traded lower on the day after NOPA crush came in below trade estimates. NOPA released February crush today and pegged the monthly crush at 136.3 million bushels vs. 158.2 in January and against trade estimates of 141.6. Soybeans broke lower on the worse than expected data. Crush margins have seen a decline recently as international demand for soybean meal and oil has slowed as many buyers look ahead to cheaper supplies in Argentina. The soybean basis in the interior of the US remains firm as processor attempt to drum up physical movement to fulfill sales commitments already made but this has also added to the decline in crush margins. The USDA announced this morning that private exporters sold 165,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for the 2013/14 marketing year.":

FKLI- Coming Down On Election Fear And External Factor

Stock index and index futures are having back their massive correction after recovering for the past two weeks, and it maybe just begin. Following the recent negative financial development on Europe, we might looking at the first sign of European debt crisis. The news on Cyprus recent major bailouts that will tax on depositors fund on each of every Cyprus's banks would draw significant financial unrest in the region. Most regional market are traded sharply lower due to this news released and things is likely going from bad to worse if it gets out of hand. Back to local stock market, market is moving into deep negative territory today as the date for the ruling government to dissolve parliament draws near. Not only that, we are likely to get more Selling pressure soon if the stock index and index futures fell below their respective psychological support. Technically, Bearish mode is officially activated as there is a lower high formed on spot month contract daily chart. Bulls are now retreating, giving easy way in for Bears to dominate. Long term major support remain intact around 1,586~1,580 area. Traders can expect more weakness to occur if the major support area is broken. For today, pivot support for March contract is located around 1,608.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1653
R1= 1639
S1= 1616
S2= 1608

FCPO- Medium Term Double Bottom ? 

Chart pattern mostly re-acted similar to the text book description, especially if it occur on higher time frame. In other words, the higher the time frame, the more lethal that chart pattern could turn out to be. Observing on recent double bottom chart pattern that appear to be a short term double bottom on 15 minutes chart, it has now evolved into medium double bottom on hourly chart. The psychophysical tale behind a double bottom chart pattern always signifies major support as Sellers were powerless to push down the price any more and the next thing to do will be allowing Buyers to recover the price. When the price recovered about 0.2% after hitting the previous Low / Lows, we are likely looking at early sign of double bottom chart pattern. Example, possible recovery was magnified when the benchmark may recovered more than 2,380 level on previous Friday. It become more obvious that the market is going to recover further when it hit 2,390 level steadily in the morning session alone. The medium term double bottom pattern emerged when the market recovered above 2,400 psychological resistance area and it did not stop until it hit 2,433 on last Friday which serve as the next resistance level. Bulls definitely make their presence noticeable by breaching above two significant resistance level in one session. For today, market might open lower due to previous Friday overbought reading plus weaker price on Soy oil. Pivot support for the benchmark May is located around 2,386 while resistance is pegged at 2,442.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2465
R1= 2442
S1= 2486
S2= 2353

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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