Thursday, March 14, 2013

First Retracement On FKLI 15th March 2013

Friday, 15th March 2013. The index futures is likely heading down for some mild retracement after it rallied to weekly high around 1,668.50 level last Monday this week. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks advanced Thursday, lifting the S&P 500 index to within 2 points of its all-time closing high, as investors embraced the latest confirmation of an expanding economy. Stretching gains into a 10th consecutive session, its longest streak in 16 years, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA +0.58% climbed 83.86 points, or 0.6%, to 14,539.14, leaving it with another record close for a eighth consecutive session. The S&P 500 index SPX +0.56% rose 8.71 points, or 0.6%, to 1,563.23, leaving it less than 2 points shy of its record close set in October 2007. Energy and technology were the top performers among the index’s 10 major industry groups, while health-care companies weighed.
The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP +0.43% advanced 13.81 points, or 0.4%, to 3,258.93."

"- Asian stock markets moved broadly lower Thursday, with weakness for property shares weighing on the Hong Kong bourse, though Tokyo shares rose on hopes for further policy easing. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 +0.89%  ended with a 1.2% gain, after shedding 0.9% over the past two sessions. In China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.28%  was down 0.6% in late afternoon trading, while the Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 +0.28%  slipped 0.1%Most of the other major indexes lost ground, as Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO +1.12%  finished 1.2% lower, South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU -0.02%  traded 0.3% lower just ahead of the close, and Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 -0.55% dipped 0.6%."

"- Oil futures finished higher Thursday, with a decline in the U.S. dollar DXY +0.01% and encouraging weekly labor-market data supporting gains. Crude oil for delivery in April CLJ3 +0.24% rose 51 cents, or 0.6%, at $93.03 a barrel, the highest settlement for a front-month crude contract since Feb. "

"-May Soybeans finished down 8 at 1439, 11 off the high and 10 up from the low. July Soybeans closed down 5 1/2 at 1419 1/2. This was 9 3/4 up from the low and 9 1/4 off the high.

May Soymeal closed down 2.9 at 426.0. This was 2.6 up from the low and 4.6 off the high. May Soybean Oil finished down 0.14 at 49.38, 0.34 off the high and 0.35 up from the low. May soybeans traded lower on the day on reports that China may have canceled South American cargo purchases and on news that their port stocks have swelled as new crop soybeans from Brazil are on the way. Net weekly export sales were impressive today after coming in at 657,700 tonnes for the current marketing year and 126,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 783,700. As of March 7th, cumulative sales stand at 97% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 85%. Sales of 44,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast, down from 67,000 the week prior. Net meal sales came in at 51,700 tonnes for the current marketing year and no sales were reported for 2013/14. Old crop sales were down from 119,300 the week prior. As of March 7th, cumulative sales stand at 93% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 65%. Sales of 18,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast, down from 19,500 the week prior. Net oil sales came in at 6,000 tonnes for the current marketing year and no sales were reported for the next marketing year. As of March 7th, cumulative sales stand at 76.5% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 59%. Sales of 8,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast."

FKLI- Bulls Are Taking Some Breather. 

Following on previous week upside break out that made the index futures went up to 1,668.50 level, it is having some mild retracement recently. Bulls are taking some breather at the moment, giving up gains quickly. But thing might get out of hand if the March breach below today psychological support around 1,630 level. If this even materialize, we are likely expecting some swift correction that might jeopardize this positive momentum. Market can wildly swing unexpectedly as we still need to face political uncertainty prior to the general election. In other words, high volatility will be the main headlines for the market to move right now. Technically, this downside would turn out to be a deep correction if the spot month contract could bounce back above 1,640 level today and traders can expect some decent gains the day or next week. But if the market did not manage to recover above that level and went down below 1,630 level, then we are likely to see more downside potential for the March contract. This event will also cause lower high area to formed around 1,668.50 level and also major resistance level. For today, pivot support for the March contract is located around 1,630 while resistance is pegged at 1,649.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1658
R1= 1649
S1= 1635
S2= 1630

FCPO- Dead Cat Bounce On Last Moment ?

Dead cat had to bounce if it is dropped too high off the ground, but maybe yesterday Bulls attempt to recover might be overdone as most of the losses was recovered right before the market close. Most of the Short covering has made the benchmark May went up from 2,380 to 2,401 15 minutes before the market close. The only explanation for this frantic movement might due to previous short term support or double bottom around 2,366 level as shown on the hourly chart above. Most traders would call it coincidence but when it is recorded and it would be a coincidence statically. If not all, almost every significant support and resistance that took more than two sessions to build will likely serve as important pivot level. Traders can look forward for some significant market event when the price approach these levels. Either it would break or bounce from this level, there is so much opportunity to take advantage from support and resistance level. Technically, market weakness still remain when the benchmark May gap down yesterday, signifies that the Sellers are still eager to go on Shorting. Safe  call to made on short term perspective when the benchmark May manage to recovered above 2,400 level yesterday would be sideways ranging from 2,412 to 2,366 today. However, traders can expect more correction to take place if the benchmark May manage to breach below 2,366 level. Market is remain Bearish on medium term perspective as most recovery will likely attract more Selling pressure.

P/s: Made some correction to the trading range today, same sideways market is expected for today overall market outlook. Short and medium term technical perspective remain weak and the benchmark May is susceptible for further weakness as it has created a new low around 2,360 yesterday.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2425
R1= 2412
S1= 2375
S2= 2351

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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