Sunday, January 13, 2013

Some Rebound Expected On FCPO 14th Jan 2013

Monday, 14th Jan 2013. After Falling for more than two session straight, palm oil futures might set to recover slightly today due to oversold reading. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks ended little changed on Friday, with Wells Fargo & Co. WFC -0.85% weighing on the financial sector after the bank reported a decline in its net interest margin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.13% rose 17.21 points, or 0.1%, to end at 13,488.43; for the week, it gained 0.4%. The S&P 500 indexSPX -0.0048% finished virtually unchanged at 1,472.05 compared to 1,472.12 in the previous session, which had marked a five-year closing high. For the week, the index rose 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite indexCOMP +0.12% climbed 3.88 points, or 0.1%, to end at 3,125.63, posting a weekly rise of 0.8%. In the financial sector, shares of Wells Fargo dropped 0.9% after the bank reported quarterly results."

"- Asia stocks mostly declined Friday after a sizeable increase in Chinese inflation, but Japanese shares advanced on the back of fresh losses for the yen. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 +1.40%  jumped 1.4%, with the move bringing year-to-date gains for the index to 3.9%. The Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -1.78%  declined 1.8%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.39% reversed from premarket gains to fall 0.4% after the release of the data.

South Korea's Kospi KR:SEU -0.50%  slipped 0.5%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 indexAU:XJO -0.29%  gave up 0.3%."
"-Oil futures settled lower Friday, pressured as inflation data out of China came in higher than expected and as investors banked some profits after a solid performance the prior day.
Oil prices still saw a gain for the week, while natural-gas futures rallied in the wake of recent data showing a hefty drop in U.S. inventories. Oil for February delivery CLG3 -0.05%  lost 26 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $93.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices finished the week 0.5% higher."

"-January Soybeans finished up 7 1/4 at 1424 3/4, 1/4 off the high and 22 3/4 up from the low. March Soybeans closed down 2 1/4 at 1377 1/2. This was 26 up from the low and 4 1/4 off the high.
January Soymeal closed down 5.6 at 403.1. This was 3.7 up from the low and 5.7 off the high. January Soybean Oil finished down 0.51 at 48.88, 0.43 off the high and 0.03 up from the low. March soybeans lower on the day after the USDA report was considered slightly bearish against traded estimates. December 1 Stocks were reported at 1.965 billion bushels and this was against trade estimates of 1.98 billion bushels. US ending stocks for the 2012/13 crop year was increased to 135 million bushels vs. 130 in December and against trade estimates of 133. The US soybean yield was increased to 39.6 bushels per acre vs. 39.3 in December while harvested acreage jumped to 76.1 million acres vs. 75.7 in December. This brought US production to 3.015 billion bushels vs. 2.971 in December. The Brazil soybean crop production estimate jumped to 82.50 million tonnes vs. 81 in December. Argentina production fell to 54 million tonnes vs. 55 in December. The bull camp saw a bit of positive demand side data this morning after the USDA reported that US private exporters sold 120,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for 2012/13. The news was pushed aside following the release of the report."

FCPO- Temporary Rebound

Falling to a weekly new low, palm oil futures is set to attract some bargain hunter soon but gloomy outlook still shroud the market from recovering substantially. On previous Friday, the benchmark March closed RM21 lower to 2,366 level, trading range was 2,377~2,332. Volume was traded slightly higher to 20,542 lots. The Bearish sentiment on palm oil remain in the worrying level as demand is still sloppy couple with new record high palm oil stocks reported MPOB last Tuesday. All these Bearish fundamental including China stricter quality control over palm oil imports, would limit most of the recovery this week. Technically, medium term perspective on the palm oil futures remain Bearish judging from the lower high and lower low candle formation occur so far. There was yet any sign for the market to recover swiftly from here but traders can expect some short term rebound to occur soon. It is likely for the benchmark March to open slightly higher based on a higher low candle formation found on 15 minutes chart. But it will be challenge if Soy oil continue to retrace this morning. For today, pivot support for the benchmark March is located around 2,313 level while resistance is pegged at 2,403 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2403
R1= 2384
S1= 2339
S2= 2313
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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