Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Making Another Lower High 15th Jan 2013

Tuesday, 15th jan 2013. Palm oil futures settle slightly higher yesterday as investors awaits further demand data that will be announce later on today. Other news to follow.

"- Apple Inc.'sAAPL -3.57% near 4% drop wiped out $17 billion from the U.S. stock market on Monday, pushing two of the three benchmark indexes into negative territory. The S&P 500 indexSPX -0.09% finished down 1.37 point, or less than 0.1%, to 1,470.68. "It would be positive without them," Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at the S&P Indices, said of the company's impact on the index of 500 public companies. The Nasdaq CompositeCOMP -0.26% shed 8.13 points, or 0.3%, to 3,117.50. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA +0.14% added 18.89 points, or 0.1%, to 13,507.32. "

"- Asia stocks mostly declined Friday after a sizeable increase in Chinese inflation, but Japanese shares advanced on the back of fresh losses for the yen.

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 +1.09%  jumped 1.4%, with the move bringing year-to-date gains for the index to 3.9%. Chinese consumer prices rose by 2.5% in December, slightly exceeding consensus economist estimates and representing a seven-month high for the data series. The Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 +3.06%  declined 1.8%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.11% reversed from premarket gains to fall 0.4% after the release of the data. South Korea's Kospi KR:SEU -0.66%  slipped 0.5%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 indexAU:XJO +0.15%  gave up 0.3%."
"- Corn futures rallied Monday, extending their gains from Friday when the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued its annual crop production report. The USDA had said that U.S. corn growers produced 10.8 billion bushels of corn for the 2012 crop year amid historic drought conditions in much of the Midwest, down 13% from the 2011 crop. The soybean crop was also down 3% from last year's. March cornCH3 -0.10% was up 14 cents, or 2%, at $7.23 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and March soybeans SH3 -0.25% traded at $14.18 a bushel, up 44 cents, or 3.2%. March wheatWH3 +0.36% was also up 13 cents, or 1.7%, at $7.68 a bushel."

"-Oil futures closed above $94 a barrel Monday, their highest settlement since mid-September as a weaker dollar helped fuel a broad climb among commodities. February crude oil CLG3 -0.10%rose 58 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $94.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange."

"-January Soybeans finished unchanged at 1459 3/4, 4 1/2 off the high and 39 up from the low. March Soybeans closed up 44 3/4 at 1418. This was 41 1/2 up from the low and 5 off the high.
January Soymeal closed up 14.8 at 417.9. This was equal to the low and equal to the high. January Soybean Oil finished up 1.29 at 50.17, equal to the high and 0.98 up from the low. March soybeans traded sharply higher on the day as concerns over a drier weather forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil swept across the market. The 10 day outlook calls for a drier trend in Southern Brazil and areas of Argentina while northern Brazil may see better rainfall. Supportive demand data released this morning also helped lift futures after the USDA reported that US private exporters sold 120,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for 2012/13. This is in addition to the 120,000 tonnes sold last Friday. Export inspections were positive with shipments at 39.1 million bushels, down from 39.7 last week. Soybean shipments needed each week to reach the USDA export estimate is 14.6 million bushels, down from 15.3 last week. The cumulative shipment pace is now 64% of the USDA export forecast vs. the 5 year average of 49%. December NOPA crush came in at 159.9 million bushels, which was slightly below market estimates of 161 but higher than the November estimate of 157.3. Crush for the same period last year totaled 145.42 million bushels. Many analysts continue to believe South American soybean production will be strong this year and thoughts that world buyers will slowly shift demand to the Southern Hemisphere for supplies could create long term headwinds for the bulls."

FCPO- Bearish Sign Become Significant. 

The rally that occur on morning session was quickly wipe out as high price that recovered closed to yesterday resistance level draw Sellers attention. Still playing in Bearish tune, most aggressive Sellers found it easier to Short the market when it approach resistance level rather than to become Buyers due to the preceding Bearish sentiment. Traders have to identify quickly when is the turning point of the market especially when there is no follow thru Buying when the price hit certain resistance area or stop falling when it hit certain support area. Bear in mind that, support is likely irrelevant if the downtrend is just begin while resistance is useless when the uptrend has identified. But for opposite analysis, resistance is commonly use to trade a fail rallies when there is no follow thru Buying interest when the price hit certain resistance area and support is very reliable to identify temporary price bottom after there are at least two Bullish divergence on 15 minutes chart. Technical medium perspective for the benchmark March price action is likely remain Bearish judging from a new lower high formation formed on hourly chart yesterday. But for today, traders can expect some promising recovery this morning amid Soy oil significant overnight rallies which may due drier weather forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil. Pivot support for the benchmark March is located around 2,350, while resistance is pegged at 2,422. 

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2422
R1= 2396
S1= 2350
S2= 2330
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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