Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Stock Index Posted New High, More Gain Expected 31st Oct 2012

Wednesday, 31st Oct 2012. Today main headlines will be stock index and index futures making historical high despite slow down in most part of the country. Other news to follow.

"-Investors could be trying to get back to some sense of normalcy Wednesday, but strategists say it’s going to be somewhat of a haul for Wall Street, as many traders may be tempted to sit out the next few days amid the chaos of Hurricane Sandy and its aftermath. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJZ2 +0.05%  closed a shortened session on Wednesday up 8 points to 13,062, while those for the S&P 500 Index SPZ2 +0.18%  closed up 3.5 points to 1,411.10. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index NDZ2 -0.12%   fell 3.75 points to 2,655.25."

"- Asia stocks rose modestly on Tuesday, with investors reacting to some local earnings as a massive storm kept U.S. traders away from their desks Monday. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average  climbed 0.5%, South Korea’s Kospi  advanced 0.4%, and Australia’s SP/ASX 200 index  rose 0.3%. Asian investors lacked a trading lead Tuesday after U.S. stock markets were closed as massive storm system Sandy barreled across the East Coast. The storm’s center made landfall late Monday in southern New Jersey, with the extreme weather affecting much of the Northeast U.S., including New York, Washington and Boston."

"- Crude-oil futures settled higher Tuesday, but held below $86 a barrel, as traders started to assess the impact of the monster storm known as Sandy on energy demand and supplies on the hard-hit East Coast. December crude-oil futures CLZ2 -0.05%  rose 14 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $85.68 a barrel. Floor trading at the CME Group’s New York Mercantile Exchange, which is located in a New York evacuation zone, remained closed for a second day Tuesday. The CME didn’t yet provide an update on when floor trading will reopen."

"-November Soybeans finished up 6 1/2 at 1533 3/4, 14 1/2 off the high and 8 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 6 3/4 at 1536 1/2. This was 8 1/4 up from the low and 14 1/2 off the high. December Soymeal closed up 3.5 at 476.0. This was 4.2 up from the low and 6.7 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.09 at 50.09, 0.46 off the high and 0.03 up from the low. November and January soybeans were as much as 19 cents higher midday but fell off session highs and ended the day with single digit gains. Strong international demand, firm cash markets, and a lower US Dollar all helped to support. December soybean meal surged just nearly 2% in the early trade which led soybeans and oil higher. Outside markets were relatively stable today following yesterday weather developments in the northeast but US trading desks were still closed for many big banks and funds which left the trade rather choppy and thin. Gulf of Mexico bids were steady on the day after a stronger tone yesterday which offset some of the sharply lower trade in futures. Offsetting the higher trade was a weather forecast for South America that was more favorable. Weather watchers are hopeful that a drier pattern will begin to develop this week in Argentina while showers are set to move into parched areas of Northern Brazil later this week and into the weekend."

FKLI- Is It The Time To Sell ? 


Few folks ask me when is the right time to Sell because the market has gone up to new historical high while other regional market or other major market lag behind. Due to the ease of Short Selling, most of the futures traders alway want to Sell when the market has gone up high enough, especially if it made new high. And unfortunately, most of them puzzled, stuck and worse of all does not willing to execute their fail safe plan, which is to cut loss. I learned the truth the hard by allowing my pride and opinion exceed my trading plan, by holding to mounting losses. I prayed and hoped the market would retrace the next day and allow me to exit my Short position break even. My prayers and hope were destroyed when the market kept on creating new highs and it went on and on until the end of month. When the contract expired, All of the positions will be cash settled by the Exchange. Point is, you cannot run away from the mistake and hope that the market will move into your favor over time, it's just don't happen in financial market. The right way to deal if the market move unfavorable was to execute your fail safe plan and move on. Technically, the spot month contract is hovering on positive momentum judging from previous higher low and higher high price action shown on daily chart above. Traders are advised to go Long if the market happen to come down for mild retracement. For today, the Nov contract support level is located around 1,670 while resistance is pegged at 1,680 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1680
R1= 1677
S1= 1672
S2= 1670

FCPO- Support Level Breached, Descending Slowly. 

Palm oil futures price outlook is likely weaken and poised to retrace even further as the benchmark Jan has breached its long tern support trend line previously. Market might resume its preceding medium term down trend after spending about three weeks recovering from previous Sell-off. Most of the weakness was contributed by Soy oil massive Sell-off from previous Friday. The most actively traded Dec Soy oil contract lost about 3.5% since previous Friday, which down from 52.09 cents to 50.19 cents on yesterday Asia trading session 5.46PM +8GMT. On the other side, palm oil price may fall further as lower expectation on palm oil demand towards the end of the year. Most market participants expect that recent natural disaster or "Sandy" storm in east coast U.S would not have much effect on the grain and oil seeds prices. The overall price outlook for palm oil futures is weak as there was Bearish  price formation formed on benchmark Jan. This will the first sign of further weakness as the Bearish price formation such as lower high and lower low has formed on hourly chart shown above. With recent support trend line has been taken out plus the formation of these Bearish price action, Long holders are advised to watch out certain support level as they will be the last defence for the price to recover. All hope for recovery will be lost if the benchmark Jan manage to breach below today second pivot support level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2531
R1= 2516
S1= 2488
S2= 2475

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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