Thursday, November 1, 2012

FKLI Topped Out, FCPO Hovering On Sideways 2nd Nov 2012

Friday, 2nd Nov 2012. The index futures starting to show signs of retracement after rallying up to 1,677.50 level early this week. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks greeted November with a solid rally on Thursday after a string of data from the U.S. and China buoyed hopes that the global economic recovery remains on track. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +1.04%  advanced 136.16 points, or 1%, to end at 13,232.62, with only three of its 30 components losing ground. It rose as high as 13,273.71 intraday. This is the blue-chip index’s largest point gain since Sept. 13. The S&P 500 index SPX +1.09%  gained 15.43 points, or 1.1%, to 1,427.59, with industrials and information technology the top gainers among its 10 major industry groups. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +1.44% climbed 42.83 points, or 1.4%, to 3,020."

"- Mainland Chinese stocks posted strong gains to lead Asian markets Thursday, after two separate surveys showed an improvement in business conditions for manufacturers, while technology shares were checked by a plunge in Panasonic Corp.

China’s Shanghai Composite index CN:000001 +1.72%  soared 1.7% after an official gauge of manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 50.2 in October from 49.8 in September. A competing final survey from HSBC showed its own PMI reading rose to an 8-month high of 49.5. The data also helped support some other benchmarks, with the Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.83% up 0.8%, while Japan’s Nikkei Stock AverageJP:100000018 +0.21%  rose 0.2%. Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU -0.71%  dropped 0.7%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index AU:XJO -1.32% AU:XJO -1.32% declined 1.3%."

"- Crude-oil futures climbed Thursday following an unexpected decline in weekly crude supplies and after largely upbeat U.S. and Chinese economic data bolstered prospects for global oil demand. Light, sweet crude oil for December delivery CLZ2 -0.25% rose 85 cents, or 1%, to end at $87.09 on the New York Mercantile Exchange."

"-November Soybeans finished up 11 1/2 at 1558 1/2, 11 3/4 off the high and 11 3/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 11 1/4 at 1560. This was 12 up from the low and 11 1/2 off the high. December Soymeal closed up 2.1 at 484.3. This was 2.0 up from the low and 5.7 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished up 0.27 at 50.43, 0.48 off the high and 0.33 up from the low. January soybeans closed moderately higher on the session but still well down from the highs. The market was trading 17 cents higher into the mid-session which is about 5 cents off of the overnight highs as mixed outside market forces kept trade a bit choppy and the market continued to trend lower into the close which was near 12 cents off of the highs. Strong meal prices in Europe, a strong stock market and firm trade in energy was offset by weakness in gold and a firm US dollar. Continued hefty deliveries against the November contract was seen as a slight negative but this has been offset by firm cash markets and a lack of producer selling at the tail end of harvest. South America weather is considered mixed as current weather is too wet in southern Brazil and Argentina for planting while production areas of central and northern Brazil are still in a stressful period of hot and dry weather. Into next week, however, cooler and wetter weather is expected for central and northern Brazil and drier and warmer weather for the previous wet areas in the south. Traders see Brazil production at a record high 81 million tonnes this coming season (same as the USDA) as compared with 66.5 million this past season. Continued talk of a stronger US economy in China plus talk that China was a more active buyer of US soybeans this week helped to provide underlying support. Traders see weekly export sales for release in the morning near 625,000 tonnes as compared with 207,300 necessary each week to reach the USDA projection and from 522,200 tonnes last week. Brazil exported 906,900 tonnes of soybeans in October as compared with 1.68 million in September and from 1.41 million tonnes last year."
FKLI- Bulls Taking Breather. 

Stock index finished higher yesterday but index futures lagged despite strong accumulation activity that brought the stock index to hit record high. At close, the FBM KLCI ended 2.62 points higher to 1,675.69 while index futures for Nov contract was traded 1.50 points lower 1,672 level. Volume was recorded at 3,261 for the Nov contract. On intraday perspective, index futures is likely hovering lower soon judging on lower high and  lower low candle formation formed on hourly chart yesterday. Although we are not expecting major correction, further retracement is likely happen if the Nov contract manage to breach below immediate Support level which is based on yesterday low. Bear in mind that the index futures might be having  technical pull back due to previous overbought level and not some trend reversal to the down side. Overall, market is still hovering on positive momentum on medium term as there is no Bearish formation such as lower  high or any other trend reversal candle pattern on daily chart yet. For today, pivot support level for Nov contract is likely located around 1,668 followed by 1,664 while resistance is pegged at 1,678.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1678
R1= 1675
S1= 1668
S2= 1664

FCPO- Attempting To Fill Up Previous Gap Down

Instead of going down palm oil futures manage to stop further Sell-off due to increased demand reported on previous Oct export data and drought season on South America that might support grain and oils seed price to recover further. Commodities prices are receiving bad effect from over supplies concern and static demand world wide. Much of the Selling impulse came from over concern on palm oil future (not current) stocks figures, that is why the jargon "Buy the rumours, Sell the fact" always relevant in the market when the news just come out fresh. It is always what is going to happen in the future that would make the current price move in the first place. If market is expecting bad or negative news, futures prices is going to thread lower, but when the figures, data or the fact came out not as bad as expected, the market will likely recover the next hour (not seconds). At close, the benchmark Jan finished RM41 higher to 2,537, closing just 4 points below yesterday high. After testing around 2,490 area for some time earlier this week, the benchmark Jan is expected to hover within the range shown on hourly chart above. Instead of going down further, which I mentioned market outlook has turn to Bearish on medium term after the market gaped down below major Support trend line, it is likely attempting to recover from here as there is no new low formed after the market went down to 2,490 level. In another words, the benchmark Jan is likely moving within 2,600 ~ 2,490  level before there is any break out made from this range. Until then, there would no new trend or solid medium tern direction to follow if either one of these range is breach. For today, pivot support for the benchmark Jan is located around 2,516 followed by 2,495 while resistance is pegged at 2,561.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2561
R1= 2549
S1= 2516
S2= 2495
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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