Sunday, October 21, 2012

Stock Index Approaching New High 22nd Oct 2012

Monday, 22nd Oct 2012. Stock index inches up amid positive sentiment from U.S corporate earning announcement that will last for another week. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks fell sharply Friday, with the major indexes posting their worst single-day hit since June, as earnings from heavy hitters, particularly from the tech sector, weighed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -1.52% fell 205.43 points, or 1.5%, to 13,343.51, leaving it with a 0.1% weekly gain. The S&P 500 index SPX -1.66% shed 24.15 points, or 1.7%, to 1,433.19, up 0.3% from last Friday's close. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -2.19% lost 67.25 points, or 2.2%, to 3,005.62, down 1.3% for the week. "

"- Asia stocks held in tight ranges on Friday but were on track for solid weekly gains, with Hong Kong and Tokyo inching higher. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 +0.22%  traded up 0.1%, after gaining 5.3% over the last four sessions. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO +0.26%  edged up 0.2% while South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU -0.78%  fell 0.9%. In China, the Shanghai Composite index CN:000001 -0.16%  slipped 0.1% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.15% HK:HSI +0.15% advanced 0.3%."

"-— Crude-oil futures fell sharply Friday to end a mostly lackluster week with a 2% loss, weighed down by gains in the U.S. dollar even as traders continued to fret about the temporary shutdown of the Keystone pipeline. Oil for November delivery CLX2 -2.13% fell $2.05, or 2.2%, to settle at $90.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It briefly dipped below $90, and for the session, traded between $93.05 and $89.93.

"-November Soybeans finished down 11 1/4 at 1534 1/4, 21 1/2 off the high and 2 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 9 3/4 at 1536 1/2. This was 2 up from the low and 20 1/2 off the high. December Soymeal closed up 0.5 at 463.8. This was 3.0 up from the low and 4.4 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.72 at 51.58, 0.89 off the high and 0.08 up from the low. November soybeans erased early gains this morning after outside markets fell apart and ended up closing in negative territory and near the lows of the day. Additional pressure stemmed from reports that officials in Argentina expect soybean production to be near 55-58 million tonnes in 2012/13. The USDA has corn production for Argentina at 55 million tonnes. A closely followed private analyst reported that they expect 2013 soybean planting to rise to 79.98 million acres vs. previous forecasts of 79.87. Production was also increased to 3.453 billion bushels vs. 3.449 billion previously. The news was considered slightly bearish which added to the downside momentum. Long term support continues to be found in strong basis levels in the US Corn Belt as well as robust demand from China. Additional sell pressure into the close was linked to profit taking ahead of the weekend."

FKLI- Retraced On Previous High, Bulls Still Intact. 


Stock index gained for the second sessions straight (prior to some earning report on U.S market session) amid positive sentiment on U.S market due to their third quarter corporate earning results while other regional market closed mostly in higher note last Friday. But that was before the earnings announcement made on previous Friday session. Most of the indexes went Sell-off due to disappointing earning results mostly from their Tech stocks. Shifting focus to our local market, local seem to continue to extend their utmost interest on index linked or our blue chip stocks. Strong fund Buying has been reported to accumulate on Public Bank which contributed to most of last Friday stock index positive note. Meanwhile for index futures, the Oct contract retraced about 5.50 points to 1,662 level, volume was traded thinner at 2,524. Technically, medium term outlook remain Bullish after the higher low candle formed on daily chart shown above but for more convincing rallies that will take the index futures to another new high, it need to form another higher high above 1,671 level. For today, stock index is expected to open lower due to weaker than expected closing on U.S market previous Friday, which is also the worst single-day dropped since June. Pivot point for spot month Oct contract is located around 1,655 while resistance is pegged at 1,667.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1672
R1= 1667
S1= 1658
S2= 1655

FCPO- Hold On To Gains, For The Moment.

Crude palm oil futures manage to sustain its gains so far when it closed on positive territory last Friday.Most recovery made on palm oil futures might be contributed by rise in Soya oil futures during Asia trading session. At close, the benchmark Jan closed unchanged at 2,501, day low and high were recorded at 2,492 and 2,524 respectively. Volume was traded lesser to 16,347 lots, signifying lower strength accompanying this particular rally on last Friday. With concern over record high palm oil stocks build up that will continue to rise until the end of year before the reduce export tax policy being enforce, palm oil futures recovery is likely plateau when it approach its previous high around 2,529 level which is also serve as current major resistance level. Some events need to happen in order for the palm oil futures to continue to recover for the moment, namely few were export figures need to improve more than expected, production increment need to be checked and this maybe can be achieve from rainy weather around end of Oct and beginning Nov. On technical perspective, even though the benchmark Jan manage to breached above the resistance trend line on symmetrical triangle shown on hourly chart, there was less impulsive volume accompany this rally and also, the rally was rather short live when it closed around 2,501 without hitting previous high at 2,530 level. This would be third failed attempt for the benchmark Jan to breach its previous high around 2,530, signifying major resistance area on medium term outlook that still remain Bearish till now. For today, palm oil futures is likely to open lower due to previous Friday weak closing value on Soya oil, which saw the Dec contract dropped about  0.72 cents at 51.58 cents per pound. 

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2537
R1= 2519
S1= 2487
S2= 2473
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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