Monday, October 22, 2012

Palm Oil Futures Breached New High 23rd Oct 2012

Tuesday, 23rd Oct 2012. Malaysia commodities futures made new two weeks high amid higher than expected export figures announced yesterday. Other news to follow.

"- In a late-session turnaround, the U.S. stock market erased losses to end marginally higher Monday, with the technology sector posting the biggest gains as investors considered corporate-earnings reports. The S&P 500 index SPX +0.04%  gained less than a point to finish at 1,433.81, edging into positive territory at the very end of the session. After falling 108 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.02% turned higher in the last few minutes of trade to finish up 2.38 points at 13,345.89. After falling to an intraday low of 2,995.7 — its first dip below 3,000 since Aug. 13, the Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.38%  rose 11.34 points, or 0.4%, to end at 3,016.96."

"- Chinese and Japanese markets managed to shrug off early losses to finish higher Monday, though several other major Asian bourses saw losses. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.68%  rose 0.7%, while the Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 +0.21%  added 0.2%, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock AverageJP:100000018 +0.09%  edged up 0.1%. On the downside, however, Australia’s S&/ASX 200 index AU:XJO -0.66%  declined 0.7%, Taiwan’s Taiex shed 0.5%, and South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU -0.12%  slipped 0.1%."

"- Oil futures fell Monday, with their losses worsening late in the session just ahead of the expiration of the November contract. November crude CLX2 -1.94% fell $1.32, or 1.5%, to settle at $88.73 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with the contract expiring at the close."

"-November Soybeans finished up 12 1/4 at 1546 1/2, 12 off the high and 20 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 12 3/4 at 1549 1/4. This was 20 1/4 up from the low and 12 off the high. December Soymeal closed up 7.2 at 471.0. This was 9.7 up from the low and 1.2 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished up 0.08 at 51.66, 0.57 off the high and 0.42 up from the low. November soybeans traded higher on the day but settled off the session highs made overnight. Soybeans spent the day in a choppy range as markets were pushed around by strong demand fundamentals mixed with negative outside markets. This afternoons Harvest Progress report is expected to show that harvest is 82% complete vs. the 5 year average of 71%. The strong harvest, firm cash markets, and explosive export demand continues to add underlying support to prices. Export inspections for the week ending October 18th were reported at 61.4 million bushels vs. 57.8 last week. Total inspections are now 22% of the current USDA export estimate vs. the 5 year average of 11.5%. Even more impressive is that only 19 million bushels are needed each week to reach this crop years USDA export estimate. The South American weather outlook is providing a mixed influence to futures. Heavy rain in Argentina over the weekend is causing concern that planting will be delayed but better rainfall for dry areas of Brazil should help moisture deficits. Physical traders noted that soybean movement was quiet to start the week but farmer sales have stalled as they await higher cash prices."

FCPO- Immediate Resistance Breached, More Upside Eyed. 


Palm oil futures went up yesterday as higher export data spur price recovery. Most of the gain starting to picked up on second session after the ITS and SGS export data released. At close, the benchmark Jan went up about RM76 to 2,577, the day high and low was traded within 2,580~2,497 respectively. Volume was traded much higher to 22,840 lot yesterday compared to 16,347 lots on previous Friday. Palm oil futures surged suddenly as market participants are expecting stocks on end of Oct to lower 2.50 millions tons compared to previously estimated stocks level at 2.70~2.80 millions tons earlier. On technical perspective, the benchmark Jan have every reason to go up further on short term as it has breached above the immediate resistance point around 2,530 level yesterday. Contrary to previous expectation that palm oil futures is likely to resume its preceding Bearish momentum on short term basis, price has once more proved to be more reliable benchmark here. The ability for the benchmark Jan to breached weekly resistance not only justified that Buyers are in control but it has strengthen the short term Bullish momentum by creating the second higher high candle formation (shown on hourly chart above). Not only that, volume and open interest was also recorded higher along with yesterday rally, making it a solid upside break out. Medium term perspective is likely reverse to Bullish if the benchmark Jan manage to breach above psychological resistance around 2,600~2,605 level for today session.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2634
R1= 2605
S1= 2522
S2= 2468
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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