Monday, October 1, 2012

FKLI Testing Previous High For Real ?? 2nd Oct 2012

Tuesday, 2nd Oct 2012. Stock index probably resuming its previous uptrend after the market had a vicious Sell-off previously amid uncertainties over global economy growth and Asia market slow down.

"-U.S. stocks finished mostly higher Monday, after data showing activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector rose to its highest level in four months, but closed off session highs as traders reacted to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments on monetary policy. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA +0.58%  closed up 77.98 points, or 0.6%, at 13,515.11, with all but four of the index’s 30 components finishing higher. It added to gains immediately after the ISM data, rising as much 161 points, but the blue-chip benchmark gave up much of that rise following a speech by Bernanke in Indianapolis, after which he took audience questions. The S&P 500 indexSPX +0.27%  gained 3.82 points, or 0.3%, to 1,444.49. The consumer staples and health-care sectors led the advance on the index.
The Nasdaq CompositeCOMP -0.09%  closed modestly lower, down 2.70 points, or 0.1%, at 3,113.53, after having hit a session high of 3,146.99. Shares of Apple Inc. AAPL -1.16% , the index’s biggest component, fell 1.2%."


Kills you faster than you thought.
"- Japanese shares sank to their lowest level in more than three weeks on Monday as weak manufacturing data from China and the unimpressive result of the quarterly Tankan survey drained investor confidence at the beginning of a new quarter. The Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 -0.83%  dropped 0.8% to 8,796.51 in Tokyo, after losing about 1.5% in the July-September quarter, while the broader Topix Index shed 0.7% to 732.35. The S&P/ASX 200 Index AU:XJO +0.04%  ended fractionally higher at 4,388.60 in Sydney, with markets looking ahead to Tuesday’s interest-rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia."

"-Crude-oil futures held on to their advance Monday, with support from U.S. manufacturing data that showed a surprising expansion in September. Prices ended off session highs, however, and were easily outpaced by natural-gas futures, which ended nearly 5% higher on expectations of colder weather ahead. Natural gas settled at its highest since early December. Crude for November delivery CLX2 +0.04%  rose 29 cents, or 0.3%, to $92.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was oil’s highest settlement in a little over a week."

"-November Soybeans finished down 40 3/4 at 1560 1/4, 39 3/4 off the high and 2 1/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 39 3/4 at 1563. This was 3 up from the low and 37 3/4 off the high. December Soymeal closed down 12.4 at 474.5. This was 0.5 up from the low and 12.4 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 1.45 at 51.21, 1.44 off the high and 0.16 up from the low. November soybeans traded sharply lower on the day and settled near the lows of the day as funds continued their pattern of long liquidation following last Friday's bearish stocks report. Additional pressure came from reports that showed better than expected yields for some areas of the Corn Belt and many traders believe the USDA will increase the average US Soybean yield on their October Supply and Demand report. A private crop analyst in South America raised their Brazilian soybean production estimate for this year to 79.08 million tonnes vs. prior estimates of 78.1 and current USDA estimates pegs the crop at 81 million tonnes. It was reported that Brazil shipped 1.68 million tonnes of soybeans for export in September vs. 2.43 in August. This added very little support to the market today but some traders feel Brazil will not be able to offer any large tonnage until new crop arrives next year. Export demand remains robust for US soybeans and export inspections for the week ending September 27th were recorded at 41.70 million bushels vs. 12.12 the week prior and only 21 million bushels are needed each week to meet the current USDA forecast. The US Dollar traded lower throughout the day and US stocks were higher but neither were able to add support to soybean market."


FKLI- Regaining Positive Momentum. 

Closing at the high for the index futures, equity index swiftly recovered from previous losses yesterday as investors dialled back into Buying mode sending the Oct contract surged about 11 points to close at the day high,1,649 level. Following closely at the back, the FBM KLCI went up about 6.65 points to 1,643.31 level, closing at two weeks high. Volume for the spot month was recorded lower to 5,657 lots yesterday. Market is not retreating even after it hit the resistance trend line around 1,640 level as mentioned on previous week post. With the spot month index futures manage to closed confidently above this resistance level, it signifies possibilities of resuming its uptrend. More upside confirmation will available if the spot month manage to breach its all time high above 1,658 level. If this event materialize, we will see a major higher lows and higher high formed on daily chart. But if the market cannot breach its all time high, we are likely looking at sideways range highlighted on the white horizontal support trend located around 1,590 and resistance trend line located around 1,658 level shown on daily chart above.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1662
R1= 1659
S1= 1650
S2= 1644

FCPO- No Sign Of Recovery Yet. 

There is still no light at the end of the tunnel on palm oil futures Bearish price outlook currently. If words could describe how bad the palm oil price has fallen due to stocks piled up, it has to be "disaster." Palm oil price just kept on crashing day after day due to worries over stockpiles build up and recently the fundamental just got a lot worse when the independent cargo surveyors reported that the export on Sept vs Oct 2012 for for palm oil only manage to clocked 1.43 million ~ 1.44 million ton. Without looking at any indicators, traders can actually guess how bad the price is going to head down this week. And the best part is, there is no major support level to look out as well. In another words, palm oil price can still free fall from here even though most traders would strongly agreed that price has fall beyond oversold level. When a momentum is in motion, there is no word called "over" or "beyond", as the only limit for the market to move we know for sure is exchange set daily fluctuation limit which stood at 10%. Market always move beyond our expectation on most "over" sold or "over" bought level, they just keep going without looking back. Technically, medium technical outlook for palm oil remain Bearish and there will always be chances for traders to Short the market when it fail any rallies or I called it lower high. An informed trader only go Long when the market is going to go up, not when it is offered at bargain price and definitely not when it has oversold for a while. Vice versa for Short entry. If you want to fish for any bottom / top or double down on any unfavourable positions, do it smart by using stops, else you are just asking for another death wish. For today, palm oil futures is expected to open lower judging on overnight Sell-off on Soya oil.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2491
R1= 2373
S1= 2193
S2= 2131
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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