Sunday, September 30, 2012

Bears Controlling The Tempo 1st Oct 2012

Monday,  1st Oct 2012. Commodities futures on Bursa Derivative snap previous gain by closing new two years low on previous Friday, Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks fell Friday as an unexpected contraction in a gauge of business activity in the Midwest had Wall Street cutting still-sizeable third quarter and September gains. "We had a heck of a good quarter and month for stocks beyond what anyone thought," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group. "Now we're having a step backward as some of the QE3-inspired gains dissipate." The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.36%declined 48.84 points, or 0.4%, to 13,437.13, up 4.3% for the third quarter and 2.7% for the month. The S&P 500 SPX -0.45% declined 6.48 points, or 0.5%, to 1,440.67, up 5.8% for the quarter and 2.4% for September. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.65% lost 20.37 points, or 0.7%, to 3,116.23, leaving it up 6.2% for the quarter and 1.6% for September. September, historically a poor month for Wall Street, this year marked a fourth month of consecutive gains. "

"- Most Asian markets ended the last trading day of the third quarter on an upbeat note Friday, encouraged by Spain’s budget proposals and optimism that Chinese policy makers would act to support the economy. The Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 +1.45%  finished 1.5% higher a day after it soared 2.6% to cheer a large liquidity injection by the country’s central bank. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.38% , South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.38% and Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 +0.41%  each put on 0.4%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 IndexAU:XJO +0.06%  edged up 0.1%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock AverageJP:100000018 -0.89%  declined 0.9% on weak monthly industrial production data and amid concerns about the fallout from the country’s territorial dispute with China."

"-Crude-oil futures on Friday ended a seesawing session in the black, a result that pushed quarterly gains to 8.5%, their highest since the fourth quarter of 2011. Crude futures for November delivery CLX2 +0.27% on Friday gained 34 cents, or 0.4%, to end the day at $92.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On the week, prices declined 0.8%."

"-November Soybeans finished up 30 1/4 at 1601, 12 3/4 off the high and 41 1/2 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 31 1/2 at 1602 3/4. This was 43 1/2 up from the low and 12 off the high.

December Soymeal closed up 13 at 486.9. This was 15.7 up from the low and 4.7 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished up 0.08 at 52.66, 0.4 off the high and 0.97 up from the low.November soybeans traded weaker early in the session but exploded higher midday on spillover support from corn and wheat. The September 1st Quarterly Stocks report was consider slightly bearish for Soybeans after stocks were reported at 169 million bushels vs. trade estimates of 131 and compared to 215 million for the same period last year. The report sent soybeans lower after the release but support was found after the USDA reported that US private exporters sold 180,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for 2012/13 delivery. Demand continues to be robust for the US soybean market which added to the positive tilt. Weaker outside markets offered very little resistance to price gains as the US dollar turned higher and gold fell from overnight highs. Traders noted that markets were extremely volatile as large funds adjust positions for month and quarter end."

FCPO- Dropping To Two Years Low.

The benchmark Dec dropped as concerns on huge inventories piled up on palm oil will expand for this coming months. Worse thing to come, palm oil price is expected to continue spiral down if export does not pick up swiftly. At close, the benchmark Dec went down about RM61 to 2,546, moving about 100 point fluctuation the day high and low was 2,634 to 2,534 respectively. Technically, market outlook continue to spelled out Bearish on both short term and medium term. There was no telling where is the next major support as the benchmark Dec has breached below another weekly support and closed at least two years low last Friday. There was no sign for any promising recovery yet as there is no higher low and lower high candles pattern form yet. All we can see were series of lower lows and lower high formed on most time frame. Market will be fuel with more Selling pressure as overwhelming inventories build for this final quarter  as palm oil stocks is rumoured to hit three millions tons by next year Jan according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd. For today, pivot support for benchmark Dec is located around 2,508 while resistance is pegged at 2,608. 

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2671
R1= 2608
S1= 2508
S2= 2471
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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