Thursday, September 20, 2012

All Market Sell-Off Again 21st Sept 2012

Friday, 21st Sept 2012. Both of the equity derivative and commodity futures went down for some retracement as global economy activity slow down weigh down market sentiment. Other news to follow.

"- Blue-chip stocks posted a slight gain Thursday as most stocks finished lower after economic reports from the U.S., China and the euro zone did little to curb concerns about the world economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.14%  closed up 18.97 points, or 0.1%, at 13,596.93, with Kraft Foods Inc. KFT +1.86%  and Microsoft Corp. MSFT +1.28%  leading the rise. The S&P 500 index SPX -0.05%  shed 0.79 point, or less than 0.1%, to close at 1,460.26, with industrials hardest hit and consumer staples faring best among its 10 sectors. The Nasdaq Composite index COMP -0.21%  declined 6.66 points, or 0.2%, to close at 3,175.96."

Everyone is unique and so does every trader. No trader is the same.
"- Mainland Chinese stocks stumbled to their lowest level since February 2009 to lead Asian markets lower Thursday after data showed a further deterioration in manufacturing activity in the country. Resource companies with exposure to China were hurt, in particular, while regional energy stocks were also hit as Nymex crude-oil prices sank further after tumbling overnight in New York. The Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -2.08% skidded 2.1% to 2,024.84 after an initial reading of HSBC’s September survey on manufacturing conditions came in at 47.8. The figure, although up from a final reading of 47.6 in August, was well below the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction, and represented a deterioration for the 11th straight month. The Shenzhen Composite Index slumped 3% to 840.21, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -1.20% slid 1.2% to 20,590.92. The PMI data also hurt sentiment elsewhere in the region. Japan’s Nikkei Stock AverageJP:100000018 -1.57%  fell 1.6% amid renewed yen strength, South Korea’s KospiKR:SEU -0.87%  lost 0.9%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index AU:XJO -0.48%  gave up 0.5% and Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 -0.70%  shed 0.7%."

"- Crude-oil futures ended a tad lower on Thursday, derailed by weak manufacturing data around the globe. Crude for October deliveryCLV2 +0.17% retreated 11 cents, or 0.1%, to $91.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract expired Thursday. Natural-gas futures ended higher, however, garnering some support from a weekly government supply report that came in within expectations. Natural gas for October delivery NGV12 +0.97% gained 4 cents, or 1.3%, to $2.80 per million British thermal units. "

"-November Soybeans finished down 50 3/4 at 1618 3/4, 67 1/4 off the high and 2 3/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 51 1/2 at 1617 3/4. This was 2 3/4 up from the low and 67 3/4 off the high. December Soymeal closed down 17.2 at 483.1. This was 1.3 up from the low and 23.6 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 1.2 at 55.05, 1.53 off the high and 0.31 up from the low. November soybeans were trading 20 cents lower midday but late session technical selling and profit taking took the market nearly 3% lower. Bear spreading was noted throughout the day. Seasonal harvest pressure along with reports of better than expected soybean yields continue to give a negative tilt to the soybean market. Long term support may come from the stunning export pace for the 2012/13 marketing year but the market is focused on harvest at the moment. The weekly export sales report for the week ending September 13th pegged sales for soybeans at 712,200 tonnes for the current marketing year and 5,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 717,700. Total sales were in line with market estimates. As of September 13th, cumulative soybean sales stand at 75% of the USDA forecast for current marketing year vs. a 5 year average of 38%. Total net soybean meal sales came in at 234,300 tonnes and total net oil sales came in at 36,300 tonnes. The US Dollar traded higher on the day which added to the negative sentiment after China and Europe released poor economic data overnight."

FKLI- Some Retracement After The Market Gap Up Previously. 

Equity index pull back amid weak economy activity reported on various Asia and European country. Most manufacturing data and other economy activity are showing signs of further slowing down and economy recovery may halt in most developing countries due to slower demand. At close, the FBM KLCI slip about 20.52 points to 1,625.59 while spot month index futures went down about 19 points to 1,621 level. Volume for the spot month was traded higher than typical session to 6,261 lots. Even before the spot month index had a major drop such as yesterday, there was sign for it to retrace few sessions ago when the market formed lower high and lower low candle formation on hourly chart ( starting on previous Tuesday). Market may need some time to retrace further even though the sentiment for upside has improved after the market gap up last week. For today, equity index is expected to open higher due to slightly better overnight performance on U.S market. Pivot point support level for spot month contract is located around 1,600 while resistance is pegged at 1,638.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1655
R1= 1638
S1= 1610
S2= 1600

FCPO- Down Trending Momentum Remain Intact

CPO futures went down yesterday despite some recovery on the 1-20th Sept palm oil export data that saw some improvement over 13%~15% better compare to previous Aug month. Market participants are still Bearish of palm oil futures as most recovery will induce more Selling opportunity due to record high stocks level that still stood above 2 millions tons. Bearish mode remain on amid weaker price outlook on Soy bean products that went down due to favourable harvest weather in south America at the moment. At close, the benchmark Dec slide down about RM39 to 2,820 while Soy oil for Oct contract went down about 0.70 cents or 1.26% to 55.12 cents per pound during Asia trading session yesterday, 6.02PM +8GMT. Volume for the benchmark Dec was traded slightly higher to 25,650 lots compare to 23. 634 lots on previous Wednesday. Technically, judging on recent lower lows and lower highs candle formation formed on hourly chart shown above, palm oil futures Bearish momentum is here to stay for medium term. Not only that, yesterday continuous Sell-off was also accompanied by higher volume and open interest as well. these condition signifies that more traders are likely holding fresh Short positions in the hope of weaker price outlook for upcoming week. For today, pivot point for the benchmark Dec is located around 2,764 while resistance is pegged at 2,859.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2898
R1= 2859
S1= 2792
S2= 2764
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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