Sunday, September 23, 2012

Weakness continue 24th Sept 2012

Monday, 24th Sept 2012. Both of the commodities market and equity index futures dipped down on previous Friday amid numerous weak performance over global commodities market and stock market. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks on Friday finished nearly unchanged, giving Wall Street its first weekly drop for September. “After having two explosive weeks to the upside, where the S&P 500 was up 3.5%, it’s a huge victory to come out this week virtually flat in the face of the concerns we have: the Middle East, the fiscal cliff and more bad news than good in the economic data stream,” said Art Hogan, equity strategist at Lazard Capital Markets.The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.13%  fell 17.46 points, or 0.1%, to 13,579.47, leaving it down 0.1% from the week-ago close. Down 0.4% on the week, the S&P 500 index SPX -0.0075%  fell a fraction to 1,460.15, with materials the laggard and telecommunications leading gains among its 10 sectors. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.13%  climbed 4 points, or 0.1%, to 3,179.96, bolstered by shares of Apple, up 0.2%.

"-Asian stocks ended a turbulent week on an upbeat note Friday, with the launch of Apple Inc.’s newest iPhone helping technology and telecom companies, while Japan Airlines Co. fell below its offer price as bilateral tensions between China and Japan weighed on airlines.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.70% ended 0.7% higher while the Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 +0.09%  gained 0.1%, moving off the multiyear lows it hit when it plunged 2.1% on Thursday. The Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 +0.25%  gained 0.3%, South Korea’s KospiKR:SEU +0.60%  climbed 0.6% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index AU:XJO +0.25% advanced 0.3%. In a notable exception to the uptrend, the Shenzhen Composite index eased 0.7%. The Asia Dow was up 0.9% at 2,791."
"-Crude-oil futures gained Friday, rebounding after recent steep declines left prices low enough to attract bargain hunters. Most commodities rose as a weaker dollar DXY +0.0038%  provided an extra boost, as U.S. stocks traded higher. Equities are seen as a proxy for economic conditions and thus for oil demand. Crude for November delivery CLX2 +0.58%  added 47 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $92.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, snapping a four-day losing streak."


"-November Soybeans finished up 3 at 1621 3/4, 17 1/4 off the high and 14 1/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 4 1/4 at 1622. This was 14 1/2 up from the low and 15 1/2 off the high. December Soymeal closed up 2.9 at 486.0. This was 4.9 up from the low and 4.0 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.22 at 54.83, 0.63 off the high and 0.31 up from the low. November soybeans closed 3 cents higher on the day after first trading down to the lowest level since August 15th. While inching higher on the day, November closed down $1.17 1/4 for the week. The market traded slightly higher midday with talk of the oversold condition of the market and some short-covering helping to support. Soybean and grain markets were able to bounce higher, mostly due to a lower US Dollar and a sharply higher wheat market. Reports of better than average soybean yields continue to make managed money traders nervous and in effect, have triggered profit taking in soybeans all week. Despite the surprising yields and hopes of increased production, export demand for soybeans and soybean meal continue to run at a staggering pace. Some traders estimate that China bought 4-5 cargos of US Soybeans Thursday and it was announced overnight that US private exporters sold 140,000 tonnes of soybean meal to South Korea for 2012/13. Cash soybean basis in the interior of the US was mixed with a processor in Lafayette, IN raising bids by 5 cents while a facility in Council Bluff, IA dropped their bids by 5 cents."
FKLI- More Weakness To Follow.
Chart courtesy from Boloomberg
Stock index continue to correction as investors grew wary about the impending slow down on certain major Asia economy, namely China and Japan. U.S stock market rallied on the third quantitative easing news might be running out of steam currently and more political uncertainties will follow as their general election is just around the corner. Technically, the index futures might be topping out at the moment as market refuse to recover above the all time high last week. To recap, another higher lows was formed on the daily chart last week but the rally was somehow decapitate when the market made some corrections starting on previous Thursday. Traders are advise to pay attention on the recent lower high formed on the daily chart, it could signifies more weakness this week. For medium term perspective, market is likely to head into sideways movement with upper range / resistance area located around 1,650 level while lower range / support is located around 1,580 level. For today, Monday 24th Sept, pivot point support is located around 1,604 while resistance is pegged at 1,626.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=1635
R1=1626
S1=1610
S2=1604

FCPO-Weakness Across The Board.
Chart Courtesy from Bloomberg
Palm oil futures slides down for the second sessions straight on previous Friday as concern on huge palm oil stocks and active supplies dampen the market for recovery. Commodities market for edible oil especially had heavy Selling pressure for the upcoming week due to unexpected earlier harvesting activity for Soy bean in South America. Better than expected weather South America was the culprit behind the early harvesting season but lower US dollar and continues demand from China might cushion the Soy bean product's price slump. Palm oil export have to rise unexpectedly higher to halt the Selling pressure, else market is likely to hover lower day after day. Most of the technical outlook on medium term remain Bearish as palm oil futures continue to closed lower with more lower highs and lower lows formed last week. Things could be worse as the benchmark Dec has breached its 20-days lows on previous Friday, signifying further downside momentum this week. For today, pivot point for the benchmark Dec on support is located around 2,717 while resistance is pegged at 2,800 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2837
R1=2800
S1=2740
S2=2717
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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