13th Feb 2017: FCPO Market Commentary

10th Feb 2017: Soy Oil Traded 0.07 Cents Lower, On-Shore Ringgit Traded Slightly Weaker @ RM4.4475

Market is still a mysterious place at least for my case, I yet to understand most of the price re-action to certain news and development. The Apr contract just dip from 3,135 level all the way to 3,072 level in the afternoon session, probably due to weak 1st-10th export number. ITS cargo surveyor announce that palm oil export fell 3.1% for that date, and the price just get over excited and starting to fall. Frankly, I do not see any bubble when the benchmark contract continue to head up in the morning session on previous Friday. This is because most of the MPOB report for palm oil still looks good. Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s second-largest producer, fell 7.6% to 1.54m metric tons in Jan. from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement. Palm oil output dropped 13% to 1.28m tons; exports rose 1.2% to 1.28m tons. I guess the price dropped due to palm oil stocks still stood at 1.54m tons vs survey 1.49m ton, from here it is anyone guess. Trade #178 had to resume Long when the market open for 2nd session, ended up with SL right after that. Trade #179 made it to partial TP about 20 points as I am not looking hold Short position overnight when the price is still above 21-days EMA. Unfortunately, Apr contract proof me wrong when the price keep going below 3,080 a few minutes after that. I must admit, the thrist of avoiding my profit vaporize is too great when I TP at 5.10PM, 20 minutes before 5.30PM or at my time limit for closing position. We learn something everyday in this battlefield, and I hope I can survive long enough for me to grind back the equity back to glory. For today, palm oil futures is likely open slightly higher due to previous Friday oversold reading. Soy oil for March is traded 0.07 lower about 0.07 cents to 34.58 cents this morning. Range for Apr contract is likely moving within, 3,070 ~ 3,110.

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.