FCPO 22th July 2016

Palm oil futures for Oct contract shows the first sign of pause upside on previous Friday. The Oct price was trying to regain positive momentum in the morning session but most of the Selling pressure is just too overwhelm when the market resume on afternoon session. At close the Oct was traded at least 1.5% lower plus price close at the low of the day, this mark Sellers were more dominant at the end of session. The other pointer that force the market into negative territory would be the inability for the price to float above 2,329 level after it resume after lunch break, that was the immediate support I mentioned on previous Thursday if anything should goes wrong from here. With Oct contract recent weak closing, we might be looking at the fist sign of further weakness or we can call it a retracement curve. I said  curve because it still an early indication, remember that market does not move in a straight line, every recovery will have its retracement and vice versa for a downtrend. Nonetheless, we will have higher likelihood for the FCPO price to retrace further if it end lower for today session. To re-iterate, there is not much changes on the fundamental side, the only positive development will be marginal increase in export numbers, that it. Current weather is still conducive for palm oil production to continue to thrive. With all said and done, previous week upside momentum is likely to survive if the Oct contract does not drop below 2,300 area. And if it does, we are going to have a nasty retracement all the way to 2,256 level, maybe not in a straight line but probably a slow descend. I am still Bearish on the longer term perspective due to consistent active production season for the past two months when the price start Selling-off. But now, we have to be prepare whether the Bulls are giving up the fight or it is just a mild retracement for the time being. For today, palm oil futures for Oct contract is likely open lower on soy oil recent weakness. The soy oil for Sept contract was traded down about 0.28 cents lower to 30.44 cents this morning. The range for Oct contract is likely moving within 2,170~2,220.

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.