Tuesday, April 7, 2015

FCPO: Some Gas To Rally 7th April 2015

Tuesday, 7th April 2015. Palm oil futures manage to break above 2,220 level yesterday, it was the first attempt and Bulls done it. Other news to follow.

"U.S. stocks erased early losses to finish with solid gains Monday, as the Dow industrials rose nearly 120 points. The stock market’s switch to rally mode was attributed to bets that the Federal Reserve will move more slowly in raising interest rates given Friday’s disappointing jobs report. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.66% rose 13.66 points, or 0.7%, to end at 2,080.62, with energy stocks XLE, -0.04%  performing best as crude-oil prices jumped. The benchmark is up 1.1% for the year and stands 1.7% off its March 2 record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.66% gained 117.61 points, or 0.7%, to close at 17,880.85 after dropping more than 100 points out of the gate. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.62% added 30.38 points, or 0.6%, to finish at 4,917.32."

"Oil prices surged to their biggest gain in nearly two months, buoyed by signs of rising demand in the U.S. and Asia. Data provider Genscape Inc. reported that supplies in Cushing, Okla.—a key storage hub and the delivery point for the benchmark U.S. futures contract—fell by nearly 300,000 barrels between March 31 and April 3, according to a broker. Cushing supplies are at a record, and this is first time those stocks have seen a drawdown in Genscape data since early December, the broker said. The data added to momentum for bulls who have been betting rising demand and other factors would reverse a monthslong decline in oil prices. Markets had already been primed for a rally from news over the long weekend that saw Saudi Arabia raise its official crude oil selling price for Asian buyers and the dollar edging lower in value, both boosting hopes of increasing international demand for oil. Light, sweet crude for May delivery CLK5, -0.82%  settled up $3.00, or 6.1%, to $52.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the U.S. benchmark’s biggest day of gains since Feb. 3 and its highest settlement since Feb. 17."

"- Vegoils Market Factors to Watch Monday April 6 

KUALA LUMPUR: The following factors are likely to influence Malaysian palm oil futures and other vegetable oil markets on Monday April 6.

FUNDAMENTALS
* Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Friday, ending a second week of gains, but volumes were thin as Easter holidays in some countries sapped interest in markets.
* U.S. wheat futures jumped to their highest level in six weeks on Thursday on worries that rains in the U.S. Plains next week will be insufficient to relieve intensifying drought conditions.
* Brent oil fell nearly 4 percent on Thursday after a preliminary pact between Iran and global powers on Tehran's nuclear program, even as officials set further talks in June and analysts questioned when the OPEC member will be allowed to export more crude. 
MARKET NEWS
* Asian shares rose and the dollar dropped on Monday, after a dismal U.S. jobs report pushed up U.S. Treasury yields as investors pared bets the U.S. Federal Reserve would hike interest rates anytime soon."


FCPO- Rally, Rally, Rally


Bulls get an aggressive start yesterday when the June contract open gap up, easily break above 2,200 for opening session. The rest of the rallied took place on afternoon session when the June contract rallied above 2,220, signifying strong Bullish momentum. Unfortunately, most of the intraday Buyers decide to take profit and force June contract to settle at 2,230 after rallying to 2,250 level. If you are asking whether short term outlook has changed from sideways to Bullish, the answer will be definite YES. There is catch tho, you must Long right after the opening bell starts, because if you get in later, there is no point to tell market has become Bullish as you are not in it. It is an Bullish statement from Bulls, no doubt about that. The curve of yesterday rally was parabolic in shape, the Bulls never look back, not even once all the way to 2,250. The next question would be, whether this rally can sustain all the way to 2,300 ? My initial expectation would be, it would not be an easy task to rally up to 2,300 this week. There would pull back, small rally, then retracement, above all you must know whether your trading horizon / time frame. How much risk is too much for your take profit target. How much percentage of capital you are willing to risk for x amount of profit. It has to be slightly off balance between these two elements, ideally it was taking profit point should be higher than risk %, especially when you are trading on longer term time frame such as 30 minutes and so on. We shall see whether the increase in previous month does matter to help price from recovery this week.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2278
R1=2254
S1=2201
S2=2172

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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