Thursday, March 5, 2015

FCPO: Palm Oil Retrace From 2,400 5th March 2015

Thursday, 5th March 2015. Palm oil futures dive down after hitting 2,400 for the benchmark month, maybe the ship has sailed too close to the shore and hit some rocks. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks declined for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, sending the S&P 500 to the lowest level in two weeks. Investors remained cautious ahead of the closely watched official jobs report, due on Friday, amid mixed economic data this week. Private-sector employment data on Wednesday showed continued gains in February but at a slower pace than in the prior month. Meanwhile, a gauge of activity in the services sector edged up last month. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.44% closed 9.24 points, or 0.4%, lower at 2,098.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.58% dropped 106.41 points, or 0.6%, to 18,096.96. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.26% ended the day down 12.76 points, or 0.3%, at 4,967.14."

"-Hong Kong stocks extended losses Wednesday, as markets cautiously wait for China to reveal its major economic programs and targets for the year.

The Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.96%  closed 1% lower, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises HSCEI, -1.73%  , which tracks Hong Kong-listed mainland Chinese companies, was down 1.7%."

"-Oil futures settled higher on Wednesday even though the U.S. government reported a much bigger-than-expected increase in weekly crude supplies. Analysts said prices likely found support on the heels of Saudi Arabia's decision to raise prices for its Arab Light crude and comments from the country's oil minister - both of which implied growing demand for oil. April crude CLJ5, +0.19% rose $1.01, or 2%, to settle at $51.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange."


FCPO- Impending Correction



2,400 was a panic button for most traders previously, it is where the implementation of export tax if the price went above this level. Even tho the government has decide to extend the zero cost export tax, most traders still think 2,400 was too hard to penetrate. You all saw it yesterday when the benchmark month just touch 2,400 level and boooom, start retracing from that level. To make matter worse, price went haywire from 2,382 level and below, jumping down to 15 points lower straight. Few lots were done between that, but most stops were done at 2,365 level. Yes, it is a vicious vacuum, things happen all the time, you can blame it to the market depth, no Buyers standing by or anything you can come up, it is pointless anyway as things already happen. The best action would be charting the next steps you need to take. As a trader, one must be prepare for anything, market vacuum is one of it. Back to the outlook, yesterday significant correction may signifies first sign of weakness. It may not look much on daily chart but when you zoom into intraday chart, it become clearer that there is huge rejection from 2,400 and the May contract does ended around the low of the day. To make things worse, Soy oil dipped to 32.28 cents as the time of writing compare to 32.85 cents on yesterday 6.00PM. Now there are news that pointing at lower production cycle for this year and this event may eventually reduce stockpiles but that news is too subjective for me to make any decision of any form in the market. Yes, dumb the news please, it got nothing to do with me, at least. For today, pivot support for the May contract is located around 2,327 while resistance is pegged at 2,373.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2419
R1=2392
S1=2346
S2=2327
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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