Thursday, July 31, 2014

FCPO: Heading South With Oversupply 31th July 2014

Thursday, 31th July 2014. Palm oil futures is heading back to south again after recovered to 2,294 on previous Friday before Bursa closed for Hari Raya holiday for two days. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks finished a choppy session slightly higher, as the Federal Reserve appeared to soothe fears that it might start raising interest rates sooner than anticipated. The S&P 500 SPX +0.01%  closed up less than a point at 1,970.08. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.19%  finished off session lows, but with a loss of 31.75 points, or 0.2% to 16,880.36.

The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.46%  added 20.20 points, or 0.5%, to 4,462.90 as tech stocks took their cue from New York Stock Exchange-listed Twitter Inc., which soared on stellar results."
"- Japanese stocks went bubbling higher in early Thursday action, as the market enjoyed a sharply softer yen as it digested mixed earnings among the blue chips. The Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +0.63% was trading 0.6% higher, with the Topix up 0.5%, extending their string of gains (Nikkei Average is up 1.8% so far this week). With the dollar USDJPY +0.00% rising to ¥102.82 from around ¥102.22 at the previous day's close, exporters and other globally exposed names got a boost: TDK Corp.  Here are the closing levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) up 0.2% ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) up 0.4% ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) down 0.1% ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) up 0.6% ; Seoul (Kospi) up 1% ; Taipei (Taiex) up 0.6%.

"- Gold prices continued to pull back Wednesday as a stronger-than-expected report on the U.S. economy dampened demand for safety plays. Gold for August delivery GCQ4 -0.01% fell for a second day, dropping $3.40, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,294.90 an ounce, while September silver SIU4 +0.14%  edged up a penny to $20.60 an ounce."

FCPO- Its Back To South, Again. 

Palm oil futures sentiment have been negative for the month of July so far. The effect on oversupply and sloppy demand on palm oil maybe the main reasons why price cannot recover more than 2,300 level for the moment. Today, we will have palm oil export figures announce by ITS and SGS. Survey shows that palm oil export for the period July vs Jun 2014 would only raise about 3%~6% at most. With these expectation, it is bad news for the price to recover this week. Palm oil export has to climb more than expectation or else its futures price will dive easily. On technical side, the new Oct benchmark contract was dropping below 2,260 level yesterday, which was previous Friday low but manage to settle at 2,267, some consolation prize for the Bulls before the market closed. Even thou it close 11 points above the low, damage has been done, price action suggest that the Oct contract is likely retracing further soon. Price recovery on morning session was quickly eliminated when the Oct contract went down below 2,273 level yesterday, bringing more Sellers into the market when the Oct contract fail to sustain its recovery. Couple with Soy oil overnight weakness which dropped 0.30 cents further to 36.03 per pound, palm oil market have more reasons to go down than to recover today. With all said and done, aggressive Short setup is possible when the Oct contract went down lower than 2,260 level and more promising level to Short is when the Oct contract does drop below 2,253 level, which appear to be yesterday low.  For today, pivot support for the Oct contract is located around 2,235 while resistance is pegged at 2,286.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2305
R1= 2286
S1= 2251
S2= 2235
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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