Thursday, April 10, 2014

FCPO: Rebounded On Oversold 10th April 2014

Thursday, 10th April 2014. Palm oil futures manage to rebound slightly from the low, but still we are yet out of the Bears grip. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday to end with the best gains in more than a month after the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting revealed a more dovish stance than investors expected. The S&P 500 SPX +1.09% , ended the day 20.22 points, or 1.1%, higher at 1,872.18. TheDow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +1.11%  jumped 181.04 points, or 1.1%, to 16,437.18. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +1.72%  also jumped 70.91 points, or 1.7%, to 4,183.90."
"-Japanese stocks shot lower on Wednesday as Tokyo reacted to a sharply stronger yen. Meanwhile an overnight pickup on Wall Street buoyed the rest of Asia, with Australian stocks hitting their highest level since June 2008.

The Nikkei fell 2.1% after the dollar lost a total of 1.2% against its Japanese counterpart on Tuesday, though the greenback did pick up slightly on Wednesday--last at ¥101.96 compared with ¥101.63 late Tuesday in New York. The yen rose slightly during Asian trade in the previous session, when the Bank of Japan said it would keep its monetary policy unchanged. The currency rose later in the day after the central bank’s governor said at a news conference that he wasn’t contemplating further easing measures, disappointing expectations."
"-Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the biggest supplier after Indonesia, probably declined for a third month in March, falling to the lowest level in three years, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Inventories fell 3.6 percent from a month earlier to 1.6 million metric tons, the lowest since February 2011, according to the median of six estimates from plantation companies, analysts and traders. Output climbed 11 percent to 1.42 million tons, recovering from the lowest level in 22 months, while exports decreased 3 percent to 1.31 million tons, the least since July 2012, the survey showed. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release official data on April 10."

FCPO- More Uncertainty About Longer Term Upside

Price would not move on one direction forever, it has to rebound if it gone oversold or retrace if it gone overbought for some time. The problem here is, when and how much. Fortunately, as a trader or any human being. no one will ever find out accurately or for sure when there is any role reversal to an oversold or over bought market. It is not a duty for a trader to predict where does this role reversal would happen nor making irrelevant guess where the price would go. We as a trader (tell it to yourself) prefer to re-act to price change rather than making prediction. No bounty for you if you would be a sooth sayer in the market. Back to market outlook, we are looking at temporary recovery or rebound on yesterday June contract price recovery. The benchmark June went down to 2,577 level before starting to look better in the afternoon session when it passed above 2,601 level later that. Market is still Bearish for these few sessions judging on continuous lower highs and lower lows formed on hourly time frame even though the June contract did recover on evening session yesterday. Failed rallies would happen if the benchmark June fall below 2,570 or failed to reach above 2,650 today. With hurdles along this recovery path, do not put your hopes high unless there is better than expected recovery on Soy oil futures or some positive outcome on palm oil data report due to release today from MPOB. We should expect further recovery if the inventory report does come out slightly lower than expectation, which is more than 2%. For today, pivot support is located around 2,586 while resistance is pegged at 2,652.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2652
R1= 2633
S1= 2586
S2= 2558
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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