Thursday, April 3, 2014

FCPO: First Light Of Recovery 3 April 2014

Thursday, 3 April 2014. The benchmark June went up slightly yesterday amid price recovery on Soy oil during Asia trading, would this be the first attempt for further recovery ? Other news to follow.

"-The U.S. stock market ended a choppy session moderately higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 closing at a record. Market reaction to a pair of better-than-expected economic reports was largely muted in early trading; indexes pushed higher in late afternoon. Private-sector hiring in March picked up to the fastest pace in three months while factory orders rose in February. The S&P 500 index SPX +0.29% ended the day at a session high, up 5.38 points, or 0.3%, to 1,890.90, closing at a record for the eight time this year. Consumer discretionary and industrials sector stocks led the gains. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA +0.24%  closed up 40.39 points, or 0.2%, at 16,573.00, only a few points shy of its record close reached Dec 31. 2014. The blue-chip index is now flat for the year. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.20% finished the day up 8.42 points, or 0.2%, at 4,276.46."
"-Asian stock markets rose Wednesday, with Japan leading the region higher as the yen hit its weakest level since January. Japan’s Nikkei Share Average rose by 1.7%, helped by weakness in the yen, with the dollar adding a total of 0.4% against the Japanese currency on Tuesday. The yen continued to weaken on Wednesday, closing in on the ¥104 to the dollar mark. The dollar was last at ¥103.84, compared with ¥103.66 late Tuesday in New York. Also in Japan, a newly launched Bank of Japan price survey showed that domestic firms expect inflation of 1.5% in the coming year, a sign that the country’s long-term deflationary pressure could be receding. Elsewhere in Asia, the gains were more moderate, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 and South Korea’s Kospi both gaining 0.2%. In China, stocks retained some of the positive momentum from the previous session with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite both adding 0.4%."

"-Oil futures closed lower for a third session in a row on Wednesday, extending losses further below $100 a barrel as traders brushed off an unexpected drop in weekly crude supplies, attributing the decline to the recent temporary closure of a Gulf Coast shipping channel. May crude oil CLK4 -0.35%  fell 12 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $99.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, for a third straight day of losses. Prices briefly dipped under $99 a barrel in the wake of the U.S. supply data. They were trading around $99.26 before the release."

FCPO- First Attempt To Revive Preceding Uptrend 

More work and time needed to be done before we can take the benchmark June starting to recover. This will be the first attempt for the benchmark June to gallop away from this weakness. It would be an easy task as the market is still Bearish about demand and inventory aspect. Much needed aid will come from Soy oil futures so that we would have some reasons for the palm oil futures to go up. Bullish candle formation is the first thing we are looking at to detect market reversal from Bearish to a more positive price action. A higher low and higher high on hourly will likely signify medium term trend changing role from negative to positive. Until the hourly chart on June contract created this candle formation, market would just stalling, trading within 2,670 ~ 2,640 level for this week. For today, more recovery hint will appear if the June contract manage to breach above 2,670 today while we are likely to see more sideways or ranging market if the June contract did go down below 2,640 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2680
R1= 2664
S1= 2638
S2= 2628
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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